搜索
(430072)F832.5AWTO420801997,G.L.KaminskyandC.M.Reinhart,1998[1]/GDP15120809019961999[2]1999[3]12J.Hanson1994[4]1P.Krugman,1979S.Edwards,1995[5]195419758722,1234S.P.V.S.P.Leite&V.Sundararajan,1992,123132201198519721977198414.8%11198519881989199019911992199319941250005008BIBF4199519961997BIBFBIBFPIBF10.5%12.5%1000IMF219891995GDP913%BIBF199560%1GDP10%23Krugman,19984GDP8%22%1985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961104713943259650303236461830293907416971592167/GDP-4.00.6-0.7-2.7-3.5-8.5-7.7-5.5-5.1-5.6-8.1-7.9/GDP4.0-0.32.16.29.110.612.08.58.48.413.010.5-1573247-366-1654-2498-7281-7571-6303-6364-8085-13554---21538-1311062384065999098117599475105001216721909---51622611821081172623031847196615718731182---895-293465301468-38-81924545524824081---481-363534222833876833999365843474881216645---M2/GDP56.259.362.261.356.069.873.174.778.977.878.979.52.41.82.53.95.45.95.74.13.45.25.75.81=++2=++IMF1996199773198519962%3%GDP7%8%6%331985-1996%198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996/GDP-5.2-4.2-2.20.72.94.54.72.82.11.92.96GDP4.65.59.513.212.211.68.18.28.58.98.76.42.41.82.53.95.45.95.74.13.45.25.75.8IMF80198512BMB.BemankeandM.Gertler,1990[6]346%7%199212347WTO11GDP1%2%27%8%3419984352000241,20012252002303200016562001212220022864160%70%2001926.62%,7%28%3200143522GDP51.46%19972001/88%198944%1200162918322()31991199319941994821999[7]1519941231996LeiteandSundararajan1988[8]9198420803%8%110QFII110[1]KaminskyG.L.andReinhartC.M.FinancialCrisesinAsiaandLatinAmerica:ThenandNow[J].AsiaPapersandProceedings,May,1998.[2].[J].,1999,(9).[3],.[M].1999[4]Hanson,James.OpeningtheCapitalAccount:ASurveyofIssuesandResults[R].WorldBankWorkingPaperNo.901,1992.[5]Edwards.S.FinancialDeregulationandSegmentedCapitalMarkets:TheCaseofKorea[R].WorldDevelopment16(1),1988.[6]Bernank.B.andGertler,M.FinancialFragilityandEconomicPerformance[J].QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1990,(105).[7],.[M].1999[8]Leite,S.P.andV.Sundararajan.IssuesinInterestRateManagementandLiberalization[R].IMFWorkingPaper,April,1988.[9],.2002[R].2002OntheOrderandGradualismofFinancialOpeninginDevelopingCountriesZhigangChenAbstract:Fromboththeoreticalandpracticalaspects,theauthorproves“thetheoryontheorderoffinancialliberalization”byRonaldMckinnon.Thatistosaythatthedevelopingcountriesmustputstressonordinalchoicesandgradualistarrangementswhentheyputthefinancialopeningintoeffect,andthattheymustpushforwardthefinancialopeningundertheconditionsofthefiscalandmacroeconomicstabilizationaswellasafterthebasiccompletionofdomesticfinancialliberalization.Accordingtotheordinaltheoryoffinancialliberalization,weconcludethatthecruxofthematterwhetherChinawillsucceedorfailinfinancialopeninghingesonherdomesticeconomy,herfinancialfoundationsandherchoiceofpathconcerningtheordinalchoiceandthegradualarrangements.Keywords:financialopening;theorderandgradualism;financialcrisis11