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(19)***2001-2007paneldatalogisticlogisticregressionmodelfactoranalysisprinciplecomponentanalysis1997***(20)19981990陸2001WTOworldtradeorganization臨200011242001627(21)200020012001200171999199295%90%(22)20031997200048CAMELlogit1999808720018618712T200390912001881231HannanandRhoades19871,046LogisticregressionMoore1997Logisticregression21,90719931994(23)Avkiran1999198619951LogisticregressionmodelLogisticregressionmodel2001-200772-31Moore19971993-1994Logisticregression19991991-1998()Logisticregressionmodel20011999Logisticregressionmodel20032001-2002Probitmodel20031997-2000Logitmodel2003(24)820043550%2003901517tMann-Whitney-Wilcoxon20002004200120032003ROAROEBacon19941,000logitsBhattacharya,etal.1997(25)1986199170Gardner19841978198150%//60%MillerandNoulas1996198419902012220032001-20021420031517t1.2.3.20031999-2003()31148(26)20042001-20032001-2007CAMELLogisticLogisticLogisticYY1Y0LogisticLogistic01LogisticLogistic⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡−+=∑=iiixbP231exp11(1)1exp(z))exp(1)exp()exp(11zzzp+=−+=(2)(27))exp()exp(1231iiixbzpp∑===+(3)(3)∑===+231)1ln(iiixbzpp(4)Logistic623219118171722110ZZZXXXYβββββββ+⋅⋅⋅++++⋅⋅⋅+++=(5)KkjiiiZXY∑∑==++=611710βββ(6)YY1Y0iβiXi1,…,17jβkZj18,...,23k1,…,61F2F…mFimimiiiFfFfFfXε++++=...2211(7)111×××+⋅=×pmppeFfXfm8)iXi1,…,pp23ijFjjFi1F2F…mFiεiifif11Cov(ifjf0ji≠iεiε0iϕCov(ifiε)0ji≠principalcomponentmethodprincipalfactormethodmaximumlikelihoodmethod11(28)Kaiser1varimax0.6eigenvalue)loading100/61×⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛=∑=iiiiEEF9)iFiiEiijijijijFllW×⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛=∑=122/10)ijWijijlij33δμ−x()1−×−δμx()1−×−δμxxμδ2007)(29)20012007271224364TaiwanEconomicJournalTEJ1.490.12.1990.12.1990.12.3190.12.3191.2.491.2.491.2.18(30)91.2.1991.5.9(91.5.1792.1.291.2.5CAMELratingcapitaladequacyassetqualitymanagementearningsliquidityCAMEL17X1X2X3X4(31)X540,2009X67%X71X8X9ROEX10X11X12X13(32)X14X152000X16X172.6Z1)100Z2Z3Z4(33)906200101Z52005Z650%50%50%50%50%40%140%05Logistic61.Jesen,1986(34)5()X110.38%(30.68%)X294.15%(4.39%)X35.50%(5.87%)X45.67%(5.67%)X539.95%(28.56%)X618.35%(9.49%)X780.30%(9.42%)X8-9.00%(92.09%)X9-13.71%(104.03%)X100.003%(3.36%)X11-0.30(3.92)X1229.99%(11.37%)X1379.57%(89.32%)X140.32%(24.58%)X157.46%(13.21%)X165.96%(15.01%)X17-89.28(1714.22)Z16089.09(1279.49)Z23269.26(2236.75)Z375.20(49.52)Z40.90(0.30)Z50.01%(0.02%)Z60.12%(0.32%)(35)6-59.46116.77X10.205*0.106X20.555***0.121X3-0.1840.154X4-0.1940.124X50.016**0.007X60.079***0.023X7-0.0310.021X8-0.041***0.015X90.0090.012X100.0810.16X110.672*0.407X12-0.0320.0027X13-0.044***0.017X14-0.022***0.007X150.0120.022X160.055***0.021X17-0.001*0.001Z10.000***0.000Z20.002***0.000Z3-0.055***0.008Z410.60812.277Z5-8.33443.342Z6-9.52***1.448958******1%5%10%(36)2002Peristiani,19932.2002Focarelli,etal.,2002)(37)40%9540%200020031.743.37%6.8080.618.17%3.08312.99%2.25410.87%1.7948.03%1.2856.57%1.07270.85%(38)7(%)(%)-0.680.9570.7370.793-0.9570.8460.887-0.746.80829.643.370.6870.8660.8573.08313.418.170.8730.9050.6512.2549.812.99-0.86-0.8720.6271.7947.810.870.6970.631.2855.598.030.739-0.8511.0724.666.5770.85%100%2.8(39)819.1619-0.2228.3820-0.6237.6721-1.1946.0222-1.9855.9923-2.2965.9424-2.4775.8925-2.5185.8326-2.6294.9927-3.22104.9528-3.54114.4329-3.71124.2430-4.04133.3731-7.06142.9732-12.77152.0933-15.26161.4934-17.69170.1535-19.98180.136-28.2112977101140%(40)pukii9-0.3606-0.10880.25181-0.3014-0.06510.23632-0.0597-0.00540.05433-0.0736-0.04180.03174-0.1044-0.0910.013450.06460.06710.002560.0810.08340.002470.0279-0.0151-0.043180.0509-0.0246-0.075490.1775-0.0522-0.2297100.27840.0084-0.27110.35650.0403-0.31621210111122334455667788991010(41)19095969596陸961-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.4909192939495962942.5(42)2-0.100.10.20.30.40.590919293949596logistic20002003(43)1.2.臨3.(44)961136396.12624,822491,4151,116,2371.882.11801-273.-DEA934.965.886.907.928.109357-849.spss9510.-9011.9212.9213.10(1)945-1214.9315.1009816.8917.9218.903819181-87(45)19.9220.-9521.9222.Avkiran,N.K.,“Theevidenceonefficiencygains:theroleofmergersandthebenefitstothepublic,”JournalofBanking&Finance,Vol.23,1999,pp.990-1013.23.Bacon,F.W.,Shin,T.S.,andMurphy,N.B.,“FactorsMotivatingMergers:TheCaseofRuralElectricCooperatives,”InternationalJournaloftheEconomicsofBusiness,Vol.46,No.2,1994,pp.129-134.24.Bhattacharya,A.,C.A.Lovell,K.andSahay,P.,“TheImpactofLiberalizationontheProductiveEfficiencyofIndianCommercialBanks,”EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,Vol.98,1997,pp.332-345.25.FocarelliD.,Panetta,F.,andSalleo,C.,“Whydobanksmerge:SomeempiricalevidencefromItaly.JournalofMoney,Credit&Banking,”Vol.34,No.4,2002,pp.1047-1066.26.Gardner,“Simulationofnaturalscenesusingtexturedquadricsurfaces,”ComputerGraphics,Vol.18,No.3,1984,pp.11-20.27.HannanT.H.,andStephen,A.R.,“AcquisitionTargetsandMotives:TheCaseoftheBankingIndustry,”ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,Vol.69,No.1,1987,pp.67-74.28.Jesen,M.,“AgencyCostofFreeCashFlowCorporateFinance,andTakeover,”AmericanEconomicReviewPapersandProceeding,”Vol.3,1986,pp.323-329.29.Miller,S.M.andNoulas,A.G.,“Thetechnicalefficiencyoflargebankproduction,”JournalofBanking&Finance,”Vol.20,No.3,1996,pp.495-509.30.MooreR.R.,“Bankacquisitiondeterminants:implicationsforsmal