国际资本流动与中国金融改革的政策选择

对外经济贸易大学硕士学位论文国际资本流动与中国金融改革的政策选择姓名：吴自林申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：郑宝银200404013214AbstractNowadays,internationalcapitalflowshavebecomethemostimportantpowerofdrivingtheglobaleconomyintheplaceofinternationaltrade.Tosomeextent,thechangeofcapitalflowscouldexplaintheshapeandchangeofglobaleconomicpattern.Asinternationalcapitalhasutmostinfluenceonacountry'seconomyunderthebackgroundofglobalization,researchoneffectivemanagementofinternationalcapitalflowsbecomeakeytopicfordiscussiononeconomicpolicies.Meanwhile,itisurgentlyrequiredtoworkoutasolutiontoeliminatetheimpactonacountry'seconomyandregionaleconomiccrisiswhichinternationalcapitalmayhavebroughtabout.AsthebottleneckinfinancialfieldisthemainbarrierinsustainablegrowthofChina'sfutureeconomy,financereformshouldberegardedasthetopeconomicproblemtosolve.Thethesisbeginswithanalyzingthepresentconditionsandinfluencesofcapitalflows.ItcombinesthekeypointsoffinancereformwithcurrentpatternofinternationalcapitalflowsinChina.Itmainlyfocusestheresearchofinternationalcapitalflowsonthefollowingfouraspects:Firstly,weshouldopencapitalaccountgradually.Capitalconvertibilitycanreducethehighcostofcapitalcontrols,promotethenormalizationanddevelopmentofcapitalmarkets,andactivatedomesticfinancialsector.Secondly,weshouldenlargethefluctuationrangeofRMBexchangerateandenhancetheflexibilityofthesystemarrangementofRMBexchangerate.Thirdly,weshouldenforcetherevolutionofinterestrateinordertomakeitreflectsupplyanddemandofcapitaltimelyandaccurately,andtransfersuchinformationtorelevantparticipant.Intheend,relevantauthorityshouldpayattentiontothecautioussupervisionintheprocessofopeningbanksectorsafterChina’sentrytoWTO.ThepropersupervisorymeasuresinbanksectorsgreatlyconcernthesecurityandstabilityofChina’sfinanceandeconomy.520901012001WTO207020708020901Williamson,John.1999.“ImplicationsoftheEastAsianCrisisforDebtManagement.”(flighttoquality)20011219952002200127%5340200019983200110%%%%%%2.120002002112.2%%%%%2.220022.312%%%-%%%%2.41319792.52002199725.62199826.34141999200091.6200168.8532.8%1:0.05,1:1,1:0.13%%%%199720006502.615164RobertA.Mundell,InternationalEconomics,Macmillan,19681719991982-1999200081819ABJBEKBDAFLAIH2052000216162000922277Calvo,GuiuermoA,Leiderman,LeonardoandCarman,Reinhart(1993)238·1999242526EichengreenMussa19989123WTOWTO9Eichengreen,Barry,MichaelMussa,etc.1998.“CapitalAccountLiberalization:TheoreticalandPracticalAspects.”IMFOccasionalPaper172(Washington:InternationalMonetaryFund).27QFII10WTOIMF“”20“”QFII10QFII282.199651Obsfeld(1998)113.211Krugman,Obsfeld,,199829197919841302Md=Dt+(1-)Rt01(1)MdDRtdDt/dt=0(2)(1)Rt=(Md-Dt)/(1-)(3)(3)(2)dRt/dt=-*/(1-)(4)(4)R031241997123112519789.8199030.0199443.62001401994WTO20021215WTO3720062006123.3200012GDPGDPGDP5161416167181011111010512751591721211111712142210138511821699714682016182171421191911122032546346134213323632M2GDP2002GDP200252002M22WTO133McKinnonPill20011310256001700/19894414313Mckinnon,RonaldI,HuwPill.2001.“Exchange-RateRegimesforEmergingMarkets:MoralHazardandInternationalOverborrowing.”OxfordReviewOfEconomicPolicy,Vol.15,No.3.1419993420013000210041982-199923281295%2002527201055050WTO3515904/5199612115A.Greenspan,Remarksatthe34thAnnualConferenceonBankStructureandCompetitionoftheFederalReserveBankofChicago,May7,19983612QFIIQFIIQFII3751%515%5-1016200187ChinasCheapMoney20019617200367200395TheChinaSyndrome16DepositoryReceipt,17”InRethinkingtheEastAsianMiracle.23Rodrik,Dani,AndresVelasco.1998.“Short-TermCapitalFlows.”WorkingPaper7364.Cambridge,Mass.:NationalBureauofEconomicResearch(September).46119912199731998419995199961999720008199692000101999112000121999132002142002152003162001172119991820031920003202000921200222220012232000724-2001125200212261982-199920008472720003281987-19971999529200030Ariyoshi,Akira,KarlHabermeier,BemardLauren,etc.2001.“CapitalControls:CountryExperienceswithTheirUseandLiberalization.”IMFOccasionalPaper190(Washington:InternationalMonetaryFund).31Edwards,S:Interest