国际金融英文版CH4

Chapter4InternationalMonetarySystemDefinitionoftheInternationalMonetarySystemInternationalmonetarysystemisasetofconventions,rules,proceduresandinstitutionsthatgoverntheconductoffinancialrelationsbetweennations.Internationalmonetarysystemisbasedontheexchangeratesystemadoptedbyindividualnations.Theexchangeratesystemisasetofrulesgoverningthevalueofacurrencyrelativetoothercurrencies.Thecenterpieceofthesystemistoselectaninternationalcurrencyasamediumofexchangeininternationalsettlements.Commoditymoneysuchasgoldorsilverwerewidelyusedinhistory.Goldorsilverwereinconvenienttocarryandimpracticalinsettlement.Commodity-backedmoneyreferstothebanknoteswhicharebackedbygoldorsilver.Thebanknotescanbefreelyconvertedintogoldorsilver.Fiatmoneyisinconvertiblemoneythatismadelegaltenderbygovernmentdecree.Theonlythinggivesthemoneyvalueisthefaithplacedinitbythepeoplethatuseit.Aninternationalmonetarysystemneedstosolvethefollowingproblems:Aninternationalcurrency;Thedeterminationoftheexchangerate;Amechanismofbalance-of-paymentsadjustment.TheClassicalGoldStandard(1876–1914)Thegoldstandardwasacommitmentbyparticipatingnationstofixthepriceoftheirdomesticcurrenciesintermsofaspecifiedamountofgold.Thegovernmentannouncesthegoldparvaluewhichistheamountofitscurrencyneededtobuyoneounceofgold.Therefore,thegoldwastheinternationalcurrencyunderthegoldstandard.GoldStandardandExchangeValuesPeggingthevalueofeachcurrencytogoldestablishedanexchangeratesystem.Thegoldparvaluedeterminedtheexchangeratebetweentwocurrenciesknownas“mintparofexchange”Sinceeachcountryhasthegoldparvalue,theexchangeratewasthendeterminedbythegoldparvalueofeachcurrency.Theexchangeratewasprettystablebecauseofthegoldimportandexportpoint.Thegoldstandardwasregardedas“fixedexchangerate”system.TheBOPdisequilibriumwascorrectedby“Price-specie-flowmechanism”.ExampleofgoldexportandimportIfthegoldparvalueinNewZealandwasNZ$125/ounceandA$100/ounceinAustralia,somintparofexchange:100/125=A$0.80/NZ$Costsofgoldtransportation:A$0.008/NZ$Theexchangeratewouldfluctuatebetween(0.80+0.008)=0.8008and(0.80–0.008)=0.7920.8008and0.792arecalledgoldexportandimportpoints.Price-specie-flowmechanismRapidgrowthrate(techinnovation)OutputsincreasePricesfallExportsriseImportsshrinkBOPsurplusesGoldinflowsMoneysupplyupPricesupExportsdeclineImportsincreaseBOPdeficitsGoldoutflowsPerformanceofthegoldstandardLong-termpricestability(lowerinflationrate)0.1%(1880–1914),4.2%(1946–1990)NocentralbankneededVulnerabletorealandmonetaryshocksInflationinonecountrywouldinfluenceprices,moneysupplyandrealincomeofanothercountry.Higherunemploymentrate6.8%(1879–1913),5.6%(1946–1990)Highercosttomaintainthesystem,in1990thecostwouldbe$137billion.Limitedsupplyofthegoldcanhampertherapidgrowthofinternationaltradeandinvestment.TheInternationalMonetarySystemfrom1914to1944WorldWarIinterruptedtradeandthefreemovementofgold.Maincountriessuspendedconvertibilityofgold.Theyalsoimposedembargoesongoldexports.Exchangeratewerefluctuatedoverfairlywiderangesbecauseofthepredatorydevaluationofthedomesticcurrency.Goldexchangesystemwereadopted.Othercountriesheldgold,U.S.dollarsorBritishpoundsasreserves.U.S.andU.K.heldgold.U.S.andU.K.tradedgoldonlywithforeigncentralbanks,notprivatecitizens.From1934totheendoftheWar,countriesadoptedpaperstandard,thegoldstandardwasvirtuallyabandoned.Theinternationaltradeandinvestmentdeclinedtoahistoricallowlevelwiththeprotectionistpoliciesadoptedbymanycountries.BrettonWoodsSystem(1944–1971)BrettonWoodsAgreementwastodesignanewinternationalmonetarysystem.Internationalmonetaryfund(IMF)tolendtomembercountriesexperiencingashortageofforeignexchangereservesTheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment(IBRD)(Worldbank)tofinancepostwarreconstructionGATT(WTO)topromotethereductionoftradebarriersandsettletradedisputesPeggedexchangeratesystemUSdollarwastheinternationalcurrency.EachcountrypeggedthevalueoftheircurrenciestotheUSdollar.USdollarwaspeggedtothegold.($35/ounce)Paritybandwaswithin1%oneitherside.Thepeggedvaluewasadjustable.TheBrettonWoodsSystem•Thevalueofthedollarwaspeggedtogoldandthedollarwasconvertibletogoldatthemintparityrate.•Apeggedexchangeratesysteminwhichacountrypegsthevalueofitscurrencytothecurrencyofanothernation.•Inpracticeadollar-exchange-ratesystemasnationspeggedtothedollarandfreelyexchangedthedomesticcurrencyforthedollarattheparityrate.TriffindilemmaTheU.S.wouldneitherrunBOPsurplusofdeficits.IfU.S.keepsBOPsurplus,therewouldnotbeenoughinternationalcurrencyforworldtradeandinternationalinvestment.IfU.S.haslongtermBOPdeficit,peoplewilllosetheconfidencetothedollar.DeclineofBrettonWoodssystemEuropeanandJapaneseeconomygrewfast.USdollarswerebeingspentoverseas,intheformofforeignaid,defensespending,trade,investmentandtourism.U.S.ranBOPdeficitsin1960s.(capitalaccount)Dollarcrises(1965,1968)WorseningsituationinVietnamRumorstheUSintendtoeliminatethegoldreserverequirementagainstdeposits,notesFrenchverbalattacksontheUSdollardrasticincreaseinpurchasesofgold(1968)Goldpoolclosedin1968.U.S.BalanceofPayment