运输处客车运输风险评价报告(1)

11,2215106402.410013,Emergence(1952)zSharpe(1964)Linther(1965)Mossin(1966)zFama19651953((1900)(1905)DzBlack-Scholes(1973)zRoss(1976)22.1,()===,0),,,(0),,,(0),,(21212211nnnnxxxfxxxfxxxfLLLL),,2,1(nifiL==)()()()(21xfxfxfxFnL=nxxxxL21=0000L(BarModel)1994(Challet-Zhang)1997(MinorityGame)20042004/2.52.6),())(),((yxdyfxfdλ≤{}+∈++==RttAtMXtXX),()()0()({}+∈RttEA),(→−)1(Niiyehiyi,,2,1),()(L=→+1,,2,1),()1(−=→+NiiyiYLuiydpi∆→−∑)]([ωuuu→∆+Niiyuaiyi,,2,1),()(L=→∆+[1].20021140.[2].2003194.[3]E.19996483.[4]E.20021325.[5].20041565SeekingthenonlinearpuzzlesolvedoffinancemarketonthetheoryofcomplexsystemsThespeculationmethodofpricewaveMAJin-long12MAFei-te2(1.GuangzhouInstituteofGeochemistryChineseAcademyofScience,Guangzhou510640,China,2.ChangshaWorkroomofNonlinearSpecialDynamics,Changsha410013,China)Abstract:Therearemanyproblemsofnonlineardynamicalhidinginthecoefficientsandhypothesisofmainstreamfinanceinvestmentmodelsbasingonrationalinvestor,effectmarketandrandomwalkintherandomwaveofthefinancemarket,whichisresultinignoringthepricewaveofmarketandunablewinningthelatencyincomeinwave.Howeverareal-lifeastringencychallengeisminoritywinnerinmarketgamesatalltime.Thispaperseekssomeabnormityphenomenainfinancemarketbynonlineardynamicsonthetheoryofcomplexsystems,deemingthatthephysicsessenceofpricefluctuatingisthatthecomposingmediums(market-actor)loseone'sbalanceinacertainarea,whichgoeswithsomestrain-energyspeedupreleasing(pricewave,risesuddenlyandsharply,nose-dive);bringingforwardaconceptoffinity-scaleBrownianmotion,whichfindsthetrendofbiasedRandomwalkontherelevantscale(upordownmartingale);discoveringthatanonlinearoperatorwhichadherespricewave——nonlinearspecialtiesdynamicalfactorcanquantificationallyopenoutanegregiousorderbynonlineareffectinfinancemarket;settingupapricewaveinvestmentmodelinfinancemarket.Keywords:complexsystems;nonlinear;financemarket;pricewave;investmentmodel1961-E-mail:[e-mail]