太平洋海平面变化特征及影响因素分析

311Vol131,No1120091ACTAOCEANOLOGICASINICAJanuary20091,13(11,266100):2008208218;:2008212230:(108159);(40506006;40676013);(2007CB411807);(863)(2007AA0912012):(1984),,,,E2mail:[e-mail]3:(1975),,E2mail:[e-mail]:,T/PChurch(2004)SSHIshii(2005),,114mm/a,ENSO,Nino3()(),Nino3,,ENSOPDO()(),PDO,:;;;ENSO:P731:A:025324193(2009)01200282091,,,,[1-4],,,[5],()Daniel[6],Wu[7],Albert[8],[9]ENSO[10-12],PDO[8-9]Smith[13],Han[14],Yoshi[15],ENSOPDO[16],[17]Albert[8]PDOENSO,ENSOCazenave[18]15a,,50a,[19],,(EMD)[20-21]PSMSL(PermanentServiceforMeanSeaLevel),,2211PSMSLRLR(revisedlocalreference),27a240,119452003Ishii(2005),11Church(2004)CSIRO(theCommonwealthScien2tificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation),111993200715aT/PJasonlNino3ENSO(),PDO(10S10N,80120W),(10S10N,140E180)(),,3510a1945-2003Ishii(2005),11Church(2004)CSIRO,111993-200715aT/PJason1Nino3ENSO(),PDO:x(t),,,(intrinsicmodefunc2tion)EMD,IMFc1,c2,c3,,cn:x(t)=nt=1ct+rn,(1),rn(t),,[21],1;,921:3EMD,240EMD,,114mm/a,Church[1]50100a12mm/a,(1)(57%)-22mm/a,1190mm/a(25N)2117mm/a,(25S25N)2133mm/a,,,,,,[22],,,,0120mm/a,-0143mm/a,[23],-2113mm/a,,1191mm/a,,,4,20S,,35,(2,3,),150mm[24](),,ENSO[16]2Nino3,2a-d,2e-h,35Nino3,-0191Nino3,(01420187)Nino3()(),(1)Church[24]Nino3Church[24](4)()ENSO()0178(-0178)25ENSONino3,300mm,ENSO3Nino3,3a-d,3e-h,()Nino3(),,-012-0154(01600182),Nino311a23,,140mm,100mm,,ENSO,,,ENSO53,3a,c,f,g,h,50mm03311977,ENSO[6,8],[17]PDO(5,7),ENSOPDO,(5,7),(5,6)(7)(7),50mm,25mmPDO,5PDO,a-d,e-h,,PDO,PDO1aPDO(5e-h),PDO(7),,PDO,()(),PDO,,2(25S25N)aslNino3(ini),Nino3a,b,cd(13109N,123145E;10118N,123155E;9131N,138108E;8144N,167144E);e,f,g,h(8158N,79134W;2112N,80155W;0145N,90119W;23138N,70124W)131:6PDO,a-d,e-h,()PDO(),-0150(0190)PDO:,PDO,PDO;,(40mm),;2331331:,35N()()PDO1a(),2040mm,PDO,,,20005,200019772000,PDO(6),()(),PDO5,7PDO,PDO[25]Cazenave[18],19932008,19932003,1953200350a,1953200350a,,,199310a719932003,10a(0154014mm/a),(-0135-0146mm/a)Cazenave[18]15a,,,7()19932002()19932003a,b10a,11a10a43316,114mm/a,,,ENSO,()()ENSO,PDO()(),,PDOPDO:,PDO,35N()()PDO1a(),PDO51a,:[1]CHURCHJA,GREGORYJM,HUYBRECHTSP,etal1Changesinsealevel[R]ClimateChangetheScientificBasis,ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheThirdAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Cambridge:CambridgeUnivPress,20011[2]CAZENAVEA,NEREMRS1Present2daysealevelchange:observationsandcauses[J]1RevGeophys,2004,42;doi:1011029/2003RG0001391[3]LOMBARDA,CAZENAVEA,LETRAONPY,etal.Contributionofthermalexpansiontopresent2daysealevelriserevisited[J]1GlobalPlanetChange,2005,47:1-161[4]ANTONOVJ,LEVITUSS,BOYERTP1Thermostericsealevelrise:1955-2003[J].GeophysResLett,2005,32;doi:1011029/2005GL0231121[5]CABANESC,CAZENAVEA,LEPROVOSTC1Sealevelriseduringpast40yearsdeterminedfromsatelliteandinsituobservations[J]1Science,2001,294:8408421[6]DANIELMW,THOMSONRE1InterannualtomultidecadaltimescaleclimatevariationsinthenortheastPacific[J]1JournalofClimate,2000,13:320932211[7]WUL,LIUZ,GALLIMORER,etal1Pacificdecadalvariability:thetropicalPacificmodeandtheNorthPacificmode[J]1JournalofClimate,2003,16:110111201[8]ALBERTMM,ARTHURJM.InterdecadalvariabilityandclimatechangeintheeasterntropicalPacific:Areview[J].ProgressinOceanography,2006,69:2672841[9],,1[J]1,2002,7(2):2092181[10].[J].,1989,11(2):16241[11],,,1[J]1,2008,27(1):181[12],,,1[J]1,2004,28(6):151[13]SMITHTM1TropicalPacificsealevelvariations(1948-1998)[J]1JClimate,2000,13(15):275727691[14]HANW,WEBSTERPJ1Forcingmechanismsofsea2levelinterannualvariabilityintheBayofBengal[J]1JPhysOceanogr,2002,32:2162391[15]YOSHINS,SHOSHIROM,NIKLASS,etal1Decadalsealevelvariabilityinthesouthpacificinaglobaleddy2resolvingoceanmodelhindcast[J]1AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,2008,38:173117461[16]TIWARIAVM,CABABNESBC,DOMINHBK,etal.CorrelationofinterannualsealevelvariationsintheIndianOceanfromTopex/Poseidonaltimetry,temperaturedataandtidegaugeswithENSO[J]1GlobalandPlanetaryChange,2004,43:1831961[17],,,1[J]1,2005,27(5):30361[18]CAZENAVEA,ALIXL,WILLIAML1Present2daysealevelrise:asynthesis[J]1CRGeoscience,2008,doi:1011016/j1crte1200810710081[19]LOMBARDA,CAZENAVEA,LETRAONPY,etal1Contributionofthermalexpansiontopresent2daysealevelriserevisited[J]1531:GlobalPlanetChange,2005,47:1161[20]HUANGNE,SHENZ,LONGSR,eta1.TheempiricalmodedecompositionandtheHilbertspectrumfornonlinearandnon2stationarytimeseriesanalysis[J].ProcRSocLond,1998,454A:903995.[21]WUZ,HUANGNE,LONGSR,etal1Onthetrend,detrending,andvariabilityofnonlinearandnonstationarytimeseries[J].PNAS,2007,104(38):14889148941[22],,119932001[J]1,2002,33(3):2252321[23],,,1[J]1,1996,18(5):14201[24]CHURCHJA,WHITENJ,COLEMANR,etal1Estimatesoftheregionaldistributionofsealevelriseoverthe1950to2000period[J],JClimate,2004,17(13):260926251[25],1[J]1,2003,27(5):861-8671PacificsealevelvariationsanditsfactorsGUXiao2li1,LIPei2liang1(11PhysicalOceanographyLaboratory,OceanUniversityofChina,Qingdao266100,China)Abstract:Decomp