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评阅编号：密级：震灾应急物流中的应急物资需求预测与运输资源调度研究学位级别：硕士学科专业：管理科学与工程（物流管理）作者姓名：顾小豹指导教师：杨西龙中国•重庆二○一○年三月ID：Secretary-level：ResearchonthedemandofemergencymaterialsandtransportionresourcescheduleinEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticsAThesisSubmittedtoLogisticalEngineeringUniversityinPartialFulfillmentoftheRequirementfortheDegreeofMasterofManagementByGUXiaobaoSupervisedby：YangXilongSpecialty：ManagementScienceandEngineering(LogisticsManagement)Chongqing,ChinaMarch2010后勤工程学院硕士学位论文中文摘要I摘要本世纪以来，世界范围内在陆地发生地震的频率明显增高，破坏强度和造成的损失明显增大。过去两年，世界范围内发生7级以上地震34次，在我国境内发生6级以上地震25次。地震救援工作面临的压力越来越大，为保障地震救援顺利、高效地开展，必须迅速建立震灾应急物流系统，在最短的时间内评估灾区人员伤亡和应急物资需求情况，并以最快的速度将应急物资运抵灾区、将伤员运送到医疗点进行救治。本文紧密结合地震灾害这个特殊情景的特点，在国内外应急物流的研究基础上，对震灾应急物流系统进行了深入分析，并研究了震灾应急物流中的应急物资需求预测和运输资源调度。为震灾应急物流实践提供了参考和借鉴。首先，研究了震灾应急物流系统。总结了国内外关于应急物流的研究现状，分析了我国应急物流系统现状和存在问题，研究了我国地震应急的特点。在以上分析研究的基础上，提出了震灾应急物流系统的概念、特点和设计原则，分析了震灾应急物流系统的组成要素，设计了适用于地震应急期的震灾应急物资供应网络，并详细描述了震灾应物流系统的运作过程。其次，研究了震灾应急物资需求预测。根据近16年来云南地震灾害数据，在分析地震人员伤亡影响因素的基础上，使用支持向量回归的方法建立了震灾人员伤亡预测模型，并用测试集数据证明了模型的有效性。在得到灾区总的人员伤亡基础上，结合地震动衰减规律，研究了灾区不同分区内的需求中心人员伤亡比例。在获得需求中心灾民和各类伤员数量的情况下，建立了灾区应急物资需求量的推估模型，并用实例验证了模型的可行性。最后，研究了震灾运输资源调度。分析了地震发生后的运输需求，不仅包括应急物资的运输，还要把灾区伤员运送到医疗点进行救治，据此分析建立了以物资未满足和伤员未及时得到治疗所造成的损失最小为目标，存在多供应点、多需求点、多种类物资和伤员、多种运输方式的运输资源调度模型。运用遗传算法求解了模型，并通过算例证明了模型的有效性。关键词：震灾，应急物流，预测，调度后勤工程学院硕士学位论文英文摘要IIABSTRACTSincethiscentury,thefrequencyofearthquakeinlandaroundtheworldhavegrownhigher,thedamageandthelosscuasedbytheearthquakesincreasedsignificantly.Duringthepasttwoyears,abovemagnitude7earthquakeshaveoccured34timesaroundtheworld,inourcountryabovemagnitude6earthquakeshaveoccurred25times.Earthquakerescueisinthefaceofgrowingpressure,inordertoguaranteetheearthquakerescuerunssmoothlyandefficiently,EarthquakeEmergencyLogisticsSystemmustbequicklyestablished,assessthecasualtiesandthedemandforemergencymaterialsatonce,emergencymaterialsmustarriveinthedisasterareasandthewoundedmustbecarriedtomedicalcentersasfastaspossible.CombinewiththeparticularscenarioofearthquakeandbaseontheresearchofEmergencyLogisticsathomeandabroad,thisthesisthoroughlyanalyzestheEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticsSystem,studiesthedemandforecastinEarthquakeEmergencyLgisticsandtransportationresourcescheduling.ThestudyofthethesisprovidesasareferenceforEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticspractice.Firstly,explorestheEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticsSystem.SummarizestheresearchesonEmergencyLogisticsathomeandabroad,analyzesthestatusandproblemsofEmergencyLogisticsSysteminourcountry,andstudiesthecharacteristicsofEarthquakeEmergencyinChina.Basedontheaboveanalysises,proposestheconceptanddesignprinciplesofEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticsSystem,analyzestheelementsofEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticsSystem,designsanEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticssupplynetworkforEarthquakeEmergencyphase,anddescribestheoperationalprocessofEarthquakeEmergencyLogisticsSystemindetail.Secondly,exploresEarthquakeEmergencydemandforecasting.ThisthesisanalyzestheearthquakedataofYunnaninthepast16years,putsforwardthefactorsthatimpacttheearthquakecasualties,thentrainsSupportVectorRegressionmodelwithneatenedearthquakedataofYunnan,andusestestdatatoprovethatthemodelcanbeusedtoforecastthenumberofearthquakecasualties.Baseonacquiringthenumberofcasualtiesandcombinewiththeregularityofearthquakemove,exploresthecasualtiesofdemandcentersindifferentpartitions.Buildsamodeltoestimatethedemandofdemandcenters,whichneedsthenumberofvictimsandthevariouswounded.Finally,exploresearthquaketransportationresourcescheduling.Afterearthquake后勤工程学院硕士学位论文英文摘要IIIoccured,wenotonlymusttransportemergencymaterialstodisasterareas,butalsomustcarrythewoundedtothemedicalcentersfortreatment.Thisthesisbuildsatransportionresourceschedulingmodelthataimstominimizethelossesofdemanddoesnotmeetandthewoundeddoesnotreceivetimelytreatment,inthecaseofmulti-supplypoints,multi-demandpoint,awidearrayofmaterialsandthewoundedandavarietyoftransportionmodes.Designsgeneticalgorithmtosolvethemodel,andgiveanexampletoprovethevalidityofthemodel.Keywords:earthquakedisaster,EmergencyLogistics,forecast,schedule后勤工程学院硕士学位论文目录IV目录中文摘要....................................................................................................I英文摘要...................................................................................................II1绪论........................................................................................................11.1研究背景和意义................................................................................................11.1.1研究背景.....................................................................................................11.1.2研究意义.....................................................................................................21.2研究现状分析....................................................................................................31.2.1应急物流基础理论研究现状......................................................................31.2.2应急物资需求预测研究现状......................................................................41.2.3应急运输资源调度研究现状................................................................