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影响林农森林保险需求的关键因素分析——以福建省为例摘要随着林权制度的改革，为了解决林业资金投入不够的问题，并且能促进林业资源的市场流通，福建省开展以林权抵押贷款为主要内容的林业投资改革。森林保险是林业信贷风险转移的重要手段，随着林业投资和融资规模的扩大，森林保险成为福建省商业信用的重要环节和信贷政策、林业融资创新组合模型。本文对福建省内十个县（市）498个有效样本户进行了改革前后两年来的情况进行了统计和深入调研，分析了存在的一系列问题，并提出了进一步发展的政策建议。国际上丰富的经验告诉我们，农业保险（包括森林保险在内）一般都倾向保本经营为目标，要发展建立森林保险市场，就必须发挥政府引导和支撑作用。同时，林业也决定了森林保险政策建设特点是需要坚持的、政策性的定位。相比于其他资产，森林资源是一个与自然紧紧紧相连的社会生产过程，而面临不断的火灾、病虫害、冰雪灾害和其他自然或人为灾害，必须要有森林保险的干预。但当前农民和保险公司的供应和需求的制约因素都难以支撑商业性森林保险的可持续发展。关键词：福建省；森林保险；需求；关键因素；影响；AbstractAccompaniedbytheconductofforesttenurereform,toaddressforestryfunds,inadequateinvestmentandpromotemarket-orientedtransferofforestryresources,FujianForestryInvestmentandFinancingReformisthemaincontentoftheforestrightmortgage.Theforestinsurancewasintroducedimportantsupportingmeasurestoexpandthescaleofinvestmentandfinancingofforestryasatransferoftheforestrycreditrisk,FujianCommercialCredit+policycredit+forestinsuranceanimportantpartoftheinnovativemodeoffinancingforforestryportfolio.Reformtwoyearsbeforethereformandthestatisticsandin-depthresearchandanalysisofexistingproblemsandputforwardpolicyrecommendationsforfurtherdevelopmentofFujianProvincewithinthe10counties(cities)of498samplehouseholds.Frominternationalexperience,theforestinsuranceincludingagricultureinsuranceoftenoperatingcapitalpreservationobjectives,establishthedevelopmentofforestinsurancemarketmustplayguideandsupporttheroleofgovernment.Forestrycharacteristicsalsodeterminethetheforestinsurancepolicysettingsneedtoadheretoapolicyposition.Comparedwithotherassets,theforestresourcesiscloselyintegratedwiththenaturalandsocialprocessofproduction,facingtheriskofnaturalorman-madedisasterssuchasfires,insectinfestations,snowstorm,illegallogging,forestinsuranceisrequiredtointervene.Foresters,forestinsurance,insurancecompaniesbothsupplyanddemandsideconstraintsbutdifficulttosupportthedevelopmentofsustainablecommercialforestinsurance.Keywords:FujianProvince;forestinsurance;demand;keyfactor;impact目录Abstract..........................................................................................................................2第一章绪论................................................................................................................61.1研究背景..................................................................................................61.2研究意义..................................................................................................71.3国外研究现状..........................................................................................81.4国内研究现状.........................................................................................9第二章福建森林保险发展历史与运行模式............................................................102.1福建林业概况.......................................................................................102.2福建林业近年来的灾害情况...............................................................112.3福建森林保险发展历史........................................................................122.4福建森林保险运行的基本模式............................................................132.4.1投保形式.....................................................................................142.4.2保险范围.....................................................................................142.4.3保费保额的厘定.........................................................................142.4.4森林灾害定损理赔.....................................................................152.4.5森林保险的巨灾风险分散.........................................................17第三章福建森林保险发展困境分析........................................................................183.1供给方面存在的问题............................................................................183.1.1林农对保险公司没有可选性.............................................................183.1.2森林保险基层服务能力低下.....................................................193.1.3险种满足不了林农的参保意愿.................................................203.2有效需求不足........................................................................................213.3政府工作不到位....................................................................................263.3.1森林保险投保渠道较少.............................................................263.3.2政府对森林保险宣传不到位.....................................................273.3.3森林保险发展定位偏差.............................................................27第四章影响福建林农森林保险需求意愿的实证分析..........................................294.1森林保险需求意愿的相关理论............................................................294.1.1冯•诺曼-摩根斯顿的期望效用理论.........................................294.1.2马斯洛层次需求理论.................................................................304.1.3消费者均衡理论.........................................................................304.2影响福建林农森林保险需求意愿的模型构建....................................314.2.1Logistic模型的选择.................................................................314.3结果分析................................................................................................324.4研究假设.....................................................................................