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NO.007-2002INSTITUTEOFWORLDECONOMICSANDPOLITICSCHINESEACADEMYOFSOCIALSCIENCESNO.007-2002222341120242629NO.007-200233OLG1015NO.007-2002441997[1997]2619992001199819942001OLGOLGAuerbachKotlikoff198755AuerbachKotlikoffAuerbach1989OECD1997,KotlikoffOLGOLGKetilHvidingMarcelMrette1998AuerbachKetilHviding&MarcelMrette,19981994,OLGNO.007-20025512341NO.007-2002662342080654.91%20657%∑=•=21)(,,aaaftatatPFB1tBttaF,taftaP,ta1a152a49ftaP,taF,ttaF,stattaFTFRF,,•=2tTFRtstaF,t2000530NO.007-200277,21950-19544846.749.2198267.7766.2869.27199871.269.3973.11LOGITBrass19751989LOGIT)()(,saallblal+=3alasal,aab()⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡-=-=aaaalllitl1ln21)1(loglLOGITabLOGITLOGITab3,199512,4200020007,530-531NO.007-2002881999()∑=aaaasaPMPMM//4satttaMTPMRM••=,5aMaaPasaMataM,tatMRttTPt4∑=••=21)(,aaaftasattPFTFRB6tBttTFRtsaFftaP,tatttSBP,00,0•=7,tP,0ttS,00ttLOGITalNO.007-2002991,11,1,----•=tatataSPP20w=a8taP,tataS,ta1+atLOGITal2watatautautauMSPP,1,11,1,+•=----20w=a9utaM,ta∑==20,watatPTP10tTPt11,11,1,----•=tatataSrr11tar,ta21,11,1,1,,-----•=tajtajtaSww1w=a121,1,1,1,,----•=tajtajtaSww1wa13jtaw,,tja1w31,11,1,1,,-----•=tajtajtaSnn1,1w==aj141,1,1,1,,----•=tajtajtaSnn1,1w=aj15NO.007-20021010∑∑-=-=--•=01011,,1,,,0,,ajjtaajjtaatautawnwppnww1wa16jtan,,tja0aawpaa4t∑∑∑-=-=-=+=01011001,,,,1)(ajajjtajtaaatwnt∑∑∑=-==++=210121,1,,,,)(=191t∑∑-=-=••=011001,,,)(ajaaPAtajtatRwagenpaNinww20tpaNinttawage,taPAR11%∑∑-=-=••=011011,,,)(ajaaPAtajtatRwagewpaWinww21tpaWint2tNO.007-20021111)))1(((1411,,,,111∑∑==--+••=jjkkktkjttIrwagenpaNoutww22Ir))1()10/))1((((111110191)(,,,15,2==-----=+•+••=∑∑∑aajkkkatkjtaajtIrIrwagenpaNout23ttpaNoutpaNout,2,1+t))1()10/))1((((91)(,,,11111101∑∑∑+==------=+•+••=)()()1(,2,11tttttttpaWoutpaWinpaNoutpaNoutpaNinIrPAPA-+--++•=-251t∑∑-==••=01100,,,)(ajaaSAtajtatRwagensaNinww26SAR17%∑∑-==••=01101,,,)(ajaaSAtajtatRwagewsaWinww2721515∑∑=-=-••=2101151,,)()/()(0111,01,1,,1,1100101awagewnwageaataajajjtajtat-⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡•+=∑∑∑-=--=-=---∑∑=-=-••=210111,,,1)(∑∑∑-==-=-----••--•=012110110101)(,,,,2})(%3.1)]/([{ajajakjatkjtatajajwagewsaWout∑=-••=21)(1,wwarttatRSwagersaRout32rRS3tttttttttsaRoutsaWoutsaWoutsaWinsaNoutsaNinIrSASA---+-++•=-)()()1(,2,11331200056-57199919991999,TFRFFasa=NO.007-200213131.1999200056-573013025262725272622.19991.45151.08841.71.91.72.11.51.7NO.007-200214142200060-6519993.200060-6535011.205076.882.980.686.7344.=2.119991995-200076.882.92040-205080.686.7NO.007-20021515200154420.5%1%205070%2.1995-199919951996199719981999%23.8324.3724.7925.0725.511995-19991997420004-919995.2000490.97652000NO.007-20021616200062000474199976.2000P641-507.62194∑+=+•=42'111aaiiuauaappff411+==aaa21+af'afaaupaNO.007-2002171788.2419982617.4%40%532001[1999]8899.(10)NO.007-200218181110.11.712.199819991998199920004728-233012NO.007-200219192000331978-199920%199430%15%1980-19995.1%1990-19996.8%7%8199980%30%20012000474-475199986553337187188942163834625.9%80%32.4%920%91.8%9091.3%199880%2000474-47519992860168618631038651481.6%102%80%60%200033200033NO.007-2002202070%1028%11%8%20%20%30%1122%6%2%3660%2001199790.07%199882.69%199990%2000200094%2000121998847686.5%75.39%17.3%19991199989.3%131.98%908.18%-1.2%11%28%12%20011992-1995199371998199310.98%NO.007-200221212%20018%152001427025252001219462.5422001361/390%1/410%5501219999199821037.11%,57.86%8%1998-0.6%1999NO.007-2002222219990.5%5%5%80%90%26%11%15%20%90%5201813.7220477.54205068.4%203620362045205071%2001-20111583201220503420292094205091690%205033%20%205056.4%21.981.5202714.820401420509.2566%205053.5%58.1%6015-59199920002000NO.007-20022323205050312000-2050202013.81205011.7820508.0468%2047205076.8%20502620292050121720501070%40.3%205062.2%205076%13230220502457%91232205072.8205030%7%205039%90%NO.007-20022424100%437420505528%11%17%324030%2016203880%32256202020302031-20402041-20502.12.12.12.11.52.12.12.16.8%8%100%28%11%17%30%80%5202114.530203214.7205070%205060.6%64.8%2050184.620303711.520501769.32050340520501060%47%72001-200420024044NO.007-20022525204425.5205018810520503581050%300515NO.007-200226264-2-2NO.007-20022727Brass,William:MethodsforEstimatingFertilityandMortalityfromLimitedandDefectiveData,LaboratoriesforPopulationStatistics,AnOccasionalPublication,October1975.Buiter,WillemH.andKennethM.Kletzer:CapitalMobility,FiscalPolicyandGrowthunderSelf-FinancingofHumanCapitalFormation,NBERWorkingPaper,W5120,May1995.Cubeddu,Luis:TheInteragenerationRedistributiveEffectsofUnfundedPensionPrograms,IMFWorkingPaper,WP/98/180,December1998.Feldstein,MartinandElenaRanguelova:TheEconomicsofBequestsinPensionsandSocialSecurity,NBERWorkingPaper,W7065,April1999.Hviding,Ketil&MarcelMrette:MacroeconomicsEffectsofPensionReformsintheContextofAgingPopulations:OverlappingGenerationsModelSimulationsforSevenOECDCountries,OECDWorkingPaperECO/WKP(98)14,IssuedinJune1998Kotlikoff,LaurenceJ.,KentA.SmettersandJanWalliser:OptingoutofSocialSecurityandAdeverseSelection,NBERWorkingPaper,W6430,February1998