我国养老保险个人账户_空账_规模变化趋势分析

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,;,:;;:C812:A:1002-4565(2008)06-0063-07AnAnalysisontheChangeTrendoftheSizeofEmptyAccountofIndividualPensionAccountinChinaPengHaoranChenHuaZhanKaiAbstract:Thispaperfirstanalysesthereasonandstatusquoofemptyaccountofindividualpensionaccount,thenaccordingtothenewprovisionsofChinapspensionsystem,exploresthechangetrendofthesizeofemptyaccountusingactuarialmethods.Theresultindicatesthataslongaspensioncoverageextensiongetsalongwell,thesizeofemptyaccountwouldnotexpandcontinuously.ConsideringthepracticeofChinapspensionreform,wearguethatmakingpensioncoverageextensionsuccessfullyisthemaintaskofChinapspensionreformatpresent.Thegovernmentshouldreducethepensioncontributionrateandbalancetheburdensbetweengenerationsbysolvingthetransitioncostthroughvariouschannelsoffundinordertoachievepensioncoverageextensionsmoothly.Inthemediumandlongrun,thegreatconcernofgovernmentshouldturntotheincrementofpensionfundsfromsolvingtheemptyaccount.Keywords:Pension;Individualaccount;Emptyaccount3:(:04BJY087),,,,,2005,8000,:,(,2003),,(,2005;,2005;,2002),25620086StatisticalResearchVol.25,No16Jun.2008©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(200538),,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,;,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,199726,200538,,,,,,,2005,8000,,,20053820%,,,,,8000,,,,,,,200538,6420086©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()112000L2000,x2000x,r,,Bx2000x,ax2000x1,i1,i,2000:(TRD)2000=-1x=rL2000,xBxax(xr),ax=-1m=x1+i11+im-xmpx,mpxxm212000L2000,x2000x,a,w2000,x2000x,,g,k,2000:(TMC)2000=r-1x=aL2000,xr-1m=xw2000,x(1+g)(1+k)1+im-xmpx3120002000200538,,(2000)(2004),()2000fx2000x,…w2000+r-x-12000x,ar1,2000:(TMP)2000=r-1x=aL2000,xfx…w2000+r-x-1ar1(1+i)r-xrpx,ar=-1m=r1+i11+im-rmpr,mprrm41t(2001)Lt,xtx,a,b,wt,xtx,t,,,,,,,199726,199726,199726,,,256:65©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(TNC)t=bx=aLt,xr-1m=xwt,x(1+g)(1+k)1+im-xmpx51t(2001)200538,=(+)0151%=(1+)0151%(NP)t,xtx,Qxx,nxx,w1,w2,,wnxx,…w1,…w2,,…wnx,…wt+r-x-1tx,t:(TNP)t=bx=a0.5Lt,x1(1+i)r-xrpx(1+Qx)nx%…wt+r-x-1ar,ar=-1m=r1+g11+im-rmpr,Qx=(w1P…w1+w2P…w2++wnxP…wnx)Pnx(),,,,(1):,,,20002030(2):20,306055(3):100(4):,,(19891990)90,,88,1001(5)20012030:20002000,(1999.11.12000.10.31),20012030,2;(2002)127;1115:1(6):,2000,,,(2001)2000,1044715316919,2000(7):(2003),,70%,,30%,200036%,200120101%,20112030016%(8):(P20),20001361714,203320219,200041%200538,,,,20062010,,6620086©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(9):20062030,,;20,20;,;,,,,20,30,2030,(10):2000,(2001),2000211515,316919,19998346,,2000667317(=21151510000P316919),80%(=667317P8346)2001,2000,2000,,20005979%,1%,,20002040%,20005469%,1%,,20002035%(11):,4%5%6%(12):2090,,8%6%4%(13):(2002)164,1%(14):1995,40%80%,80%,200538,(15):200042200042,NoriyukiTakayama(2003),,4037,,(16):199726200538,2001200517%,200620%()11,20002030()NoriyukiTakayama(2003),2000430420256:67©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:g=8%g=6%g=4%2000-1152.18-1152.18-1152.182001-1096.31-1096.31-1096.312002-1022.29-1022.29-1022.292003-894.62-894.62-894.622004-747.11-747.11-747.112005-519.00-519.00-519.002006970.85942.42913.9920072529.202436.452345.6120084546.984337.234135.1420097055.856657.956280.23201010186.169502.338862.32201113896.3912813.6911814.17201218176.9016564.2615095.72201323184.5820873.7418798.01201428992.6825782.0222937.59201535664.7131317.7027519.89201643402.4137622.0832642.98201752047.2644534.3338153.65201861770.9952167.3344126.00201972992.7660820.1850774.13202085689.6170431.5758021.382021100325.9581310.0666072.252022116791.6793321.3974793.622023135070.86106408.3884116.742024156029.66121145.3994423.782025179701.91137486.86105640.672026206493.60155645.42117873.742027236756.46175782.50131187.542028270406.16197760.79145446.042029308184.16221986.52160871.112030350260.36248475.25177422.94120002030(:)5432(),,,,200538,20%,,20062030,,,,2030,20002030:6,,,,,,200538,,:,2006,2,,,,,,,,,,:116820086©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,31,,,,,,,,,,[1]NoriyukiTakayama,PenisonReformofPRC:Incentives,GovernanceandPolicyOptions,PaperpreparedfortheADBinstitute5thAnniversaryConferenceonChallengesandNewAgendaforPRC,56December,2002,Tokyo.[2],.[J].,2002(10):2831.[3].[J].,2004,21(2):120128.[4].[J].,2005(1):2123.[5].[N].,2003923.[6].[M].,2000.2.[7].[J].,2005(3):51.[8].:[J].,2003(8):3345.[9].[J].,2000(11):1315.,,,1981,,,,,1973,,,,,,1980,,,(:),,,256:69