我国商业银行估价模型的应用

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2812001JOURNALOFBEIJINGUNIVERSITYOFCHEMICALTECHNOLOGYVol.28,No.120013(,100029):,,:;;:N945116:2000210212::,1951,3,,,,[1],,,1(CAPM)(APM)[2],,CAPM(CAPM,CapitalAssetPricingMod2el)(1961,1963)(1961),(1966)(1972)R=Rf+(Rm-Rf)[3](1),R;Rf;;Rm1.1[4],Y=+X+(2),Y;X;YY=(Pt-Pt-1)/Pt-1(3),Ptt;Pt-1t-1XX=(Pt-Pt-1)/Pt-1(4),Ptt;Pt-1t-11TSPY=-115947153+018103581X,0181035811.2Rf:[2]1[5],9908,Rf=313%1(19991112)Table1SampleData(from1999211212)Y/%X/%Y/%X/%1-4192-019714-10115-71252-4117112515516961523-116-116316-1146-1194-0134-01517-2134-11695-1148-015818314851946-1154-016719-215511417-3124-4132201119113980018321-0194-117981971019122-118921310-10127-71052301730105110129319924-4124-613122147319325-1184313313101091515326015541371.3Rm,1999,Rm=19118%1.4R,(1),R=Rf+(Rm-Rf)=313%+018103581(19118%-313%)=16117%2(FCFE,FreeCashFlowofEquity)()F=S+D-C-Z-A+E(5):F;S;D;C;ZA;EF=S+D-Ct+Dt(6):Ct;Dt[2]2219961999Table2ThefinancialreportsofPudongDevelopmentBankin19961999199665016791886129101691997816140918961451651731146149139-81431998873138111681595619821355517891741999(16)872103613655106-11352186-61417121999(16)5059711,91261999,N2411,FPS=F/N=0133,()(=/)gt=(It-It-1)/It-1=bROE(7):gtt;Itt;ROE;b,19972153%,199833125%,1999(16)41113%,,,1996-199914164%,GDP,19961999,FCFE13%14%191:44.1V1=t=t=1Ft(1+R)t(8):Ftt;R,,V2=t=t=1F0(1+g)t(1+R)t(9)Rg,t,V2=F0(1+g)/(R-g)=F1/(R-g)(10),F0F1;g4.22000F1,(10)F1=F0(1+g)=01383,R=16117%,g1=13%,g2=14%,(9)V2=12108,V2=17165,12108171655,1210817165,10,,,,29,,20,,,,,,[1]..:,1997[2]AswathD.:.,.:,1999[3]..:,1999[4]...:,1998[5],..:,2000TheapplicationofvaluationmodelsforChinacommercialbankWANGMing2mingWANGYu2guoYAOFeiZHANGYi2jing(CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,BeijingUniversityofChemicalTechnology,Beijing100029,China)Abstract:UnderthelevelofChinaCapitalMarket,therearesomecharacteristicsinvaluationforcommercialbank.ThepaperintroducesthewholeprocessinvaluationwiththeDiscountedCashFlowModelofFCFEandindicatessomepossibleprobleminvaluation.Keywords:commercialbank;valuation;pricingmodel292001

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