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20093(174)POPULATION&ECONOMICSNo.3,2009(Tot.No.174)(,100191):,,2006,GDP,:;;:F840167:A:1000-4149(2009)03-0067-06:2008-10-06:(1981-),,,AnProfoundAnalysisontheCoverageofChinapsSocialEndowmentInsuranceSystemYANGYi2nan(SchoolofPublicManagement,BeihangUniversity,Beijing100191,China)Abstract:UsingtheinternationalindicatorofcoverageandbasedonChinapsdata,thecoveragerateofChinapssocialendowmentinsurancesystemin2006iscalculatedinthepaper.Theregressionanalysisshowsthateconomicdevelopmentlevelhassignificanteffectonthecoveragerateofsocialendowmentinsurancesystem,andacomparativeanalysisbetweentimeseriesdataofGDPpercapitaandsectiondataofmediumincomecountriesshowsthatcoveragerateofsocialendowmentinsurancesystemlagsbehindeconomicgrowthinChina.Theproportionofagriculturaleconomyandinformaleconomysectorstakeinoverallnationaleconomy,themodeofsocialsecurityandadministrativeabilityaretheotherfactorsaffectingsocialendowmentinsurancesystempscoverage.Thepaperintroducesinternationalexperienceinpromotingthecoveragerateandfeasiblepolicyadvice.Keywords:socialendowmentinsurance;coveragerate;ruralmigrantworker2020,,76,,,2007,47640,4779,200721846,,([2005]38)([2007]31),,,,,[1];[2];[3]:F1=CPW;F2=CPL;F3=PPR,C:;L:;W:;P:;R:11,:2006,78244,103506,6014901,14131,46355019,355,19150,4990,2006F11815%,F22415%,F33315%,20062415%,3315%6021:19942006,(GDP),[4]-(Palacios&Pallares2Miralles),90%??(y=F2),GDP(x=lg(GDPpercapita)),19942006GDPF2:yi=0+1xi+2x2i+ei:86200620072008829,21262007y=-0121x2(01046)+1177x(01037)-3143(01039),R2=0176,SigF=010006,5%,,GDP76%,-,,,?11:(19942006),GDP(2007)1,19952006,20%25%,GDP504616084,,1995514219988025,20065374,19958738200615183,31,[5],(WorldDevelopmentIndicators,200620072008)2003F1F2,200312,(F2)GDP,,2(PPP)GDP2,2003,123GDP,9GDP,,,,,(F1F2F3),,,,10%,96CentralIntelligenceAgency,TheWorldFactbook2004.http:PP(July2004).http:PPsiteresources.worldbank.orgPINTRGEP2004PResourcesPclassification.pdf.p2GDP(PPP)(2003):(,20062008),(CIA,2004)30%,30%40%,60%,OECD80%[6],11(Robertetal),GDP,,,[7],,,,,,2006,GDP1117%,43%,56%2007,2,,,785,1479,7861067,28411P,20061616%,319%,2P,4617%,1814%211,,,,,,,[8]1992,1999,,,,,,,07WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2006,http:PPdevdata.worldbank.orgPwdi2006PcontentsPSection2.htm.2007(2007),,;15,,,,,,31,,,[9](Jutting),[10],,,,,,,,2315%,20%,,,[11],,10%,120%,13%22%[12]21,[13],,,,,DBDC,,,,,-(Mesa2Lago)1238%200227%[14]2006,50%,40%[15]20,,,17,,,1999212%[16],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,80%,8312%[17],[18],:[1]Willmore,L.Universalpensionsfordevelopingcountries.WorldDevelopment,2007,35(1):24-51.[2]Palacios,R.Pallares2Miralles,M.Internationalpatternsofpensionprovision.Socialprotectiondiscussionpaper.WorldBank,2000,(9).[3]Palacios.R.&Sluchynsky,O.SocialPensions:TheirRoleintheWholePensionSystem.WorldBank,2006.[4]WorldBank.Avertingtheold2agecrisis:Policiestoprotecttheoldandpromotegrowth.NewYork,OxfordUniversityPress,1994.[5]Overbye,E.Extendingsocialsecurityindevelopingcountries:Areviewofthreemainstrategies.InternationalJournalofSocialWelfare,2005,14(4):305-314.[6]WorldBank.Coverage:thescopeofprotectioninretirementincomesystems.WorldBankPensionReformPrimer,2008.[7]Roberts,S.etal.Assessingthecoveragegap.ISSAinitiativefindings&opinionsNo.12,Geneva,ILO.2004.[8]..,2008-09-24.[9][7].[10]Jutting,J.Socialsecuritysystemsinlow-incomecountries:concepts,constraintsandtheneedforcooperation.InternationalSocialSecurityReview,2000,59(4):3-24.[11].:[M].:,1998.17-21.[12][6].[13][3].[14]Mesa2Lago,C.Aappraisalofaquarter2centuryofstructuralpensionreformsinLatinAmerica.CEPALReview,2004.[15]Rohter,L.Chilepscandidatesagreetoagreeonpensionwoes.NewYorkTimes,2006January,10.[16][3].[17].?,2005-03-22.[18][3].[]27