我国房地产业蕴含的金融风险及相关政策调整

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:,,80,,,.,,。,,,,,、。:;;:F293.3:A:1003-9031(2010)02-0004-07:2009-09-24:(1976-),,,,;(1958-),,,,。420102255HAINANFINANCENO.2,2010SerialNo.255、()2008,。,20081-10,,,,,,,。2009,20091-11,3.13,17.9%,,3.6,86.4%,,20096。20091-11,、,,,1-92.9。70,2009111.3%,200911,1.2,100.5,5.7。。,、,,、、()、,,,。,、,,,、、,2007,。,,《》《》,1,2(1.,510120;2.,100045),。。2008,,。“、、、”,,。,。2007,,。,,。,,,。()1.。,、,、、、、。2005,、,。,200810,40,9031.77%。20091-10,9021.46%,。,“”。2.。。1979“”,,30%,70%。30%,;30%,;70%,。、《2008》,2007,43.9%,“”。,201050%,202060%。,1,1000。,,。:,;,,。,,。,,。,,。3.。“”,“”,,。,,,101000,400,。,。。《2008》,200735%-68%,11%-64%,。15%-20%,。,,,。,,。,,,,。,,。,520102。4.。,、、、、,,。,,,。,,,、、、、,、、、,。。,,。,,。5.。,,“”、“”、“”、“”、“”“、、”。,、、,,。,,,,,,。,、,。82%,68%,56%,30%50%,70%。,,、。,,,,。,,,,,,,。、20802080,--。2080(Savings&Loans,S&Ls),“”,。(),。2080、,,1979198014.2%11.9%,8030%-40%。①,19861987“”,(2319804.6%809020%),,,。,1982,80%,。80,5000。1980-1988,1060,,(TheFederalSavingsandLoanInsur-anceCorporation,FSLIC),FSLIC(ResolutionTrustCorporation,RTC),,1500。()“”2060-80,80。1985《》,。620102①:.[G].,2005.,、,,。,,。,,,、,。,。1955-1988,100,40。90,“”。()1997。,。,,、,,,。,,,30%-70%。“”,,,。()。“”(Subprime)“”(Prime)。,,6%-8%,2%-4%。2090,,,。,。90,,。,,。90。2001,“9.11”,,。2001120036,13,6.5%1%。,,2001-2005。,2004,17。,。,,。,,,,。,,,,,,。,、、。:。、(),:,,。,,。,,、、。。(2000)。,、、,、。,、,、、。1997-2003,72010220%。2003121,,,200420035%,,2005。2007,,,2006,。《2008》:200729.9%,18.68%;62.4%,1.74%;36.9%,31.60%;39.8%,47.97%。1997-2007,。,,,。,,。2004《》,4,“”,,,,60%。,,。,。《》,22%。,《》,“”,。2007,18.68%,“”“”、,60%。,,。,,,,。“”。“”,。“”,。2000-200470%,①。,,,。,,。()。,,,;,,“”9070%、、,;,。《90m2()》,,。。:“”;,,。,,,820102①:.[R].,2005.。,,,,,,,。,。2005,352000,,20%,50%,25%。,60%,40%,60%,16%,15.7%。200810,,,,,,“”,,。,,,,,。“”,,,,,。、,。,4,。,,,,,,,,。1.。,、、,,。(、、),“”,。,、,,。2.。()。、、,,、,,,,,,。“”,、,,。,,;,,,,,,,,,,。3.。“、、”,、。,,、、,。,,、。,。,。,、,,920102,。,,,。4.。,、,。,,,。,,、、、,,。、,、、、,,,,,,。5.,。,,、,,,、,。6.,、,。、、,、、、,。,,,,。■:[1].2007[M].:,2007.[2].[R].,2008.[3].[R].,2009.[4].2008[R].,2008.1020102TheAnalysisandCountermeasuresofChina’sRealEstateDevelopmentWangXin-hong1,ANQi-lei2(1.XianJiaotongUniversity,Xian5101202,China;2.TheHeadOfficeofthePeople’sBankofChinabeijing100045,China)Abstract:Asasubsystemofmacroeconomic,therealestate’shealthydevelopmentrelatestothestabilityofthefinancialsystemandthewholenationaleconomicsystem.Basedonthestudyofthecurrentdevelopmentandthesharpcontradic-tionsoftherealestateindustry,thispapersummarizesthetypicalrealestatebubblecrisisin1980s,analyzestherelation-shipbetweentherealestatebubblecrisisandthefinancialcrisis,canvassesthepotentialrisks,putsforwardthepolicysuggestionsofpromotingthehealthydevelopmentofrealestateindustry.Sincelastyear,theChinesegovernmenttightenedthemacroeconomicmeasuresinordertocontroltheoverheatingproblemsoftherealestatemarket.Theeffectofthemacro-controlandAmericanfinancialcrisisbythesub-primeproblemscoincidewitheachotherontime.Indomestice-conomicpoliceadjustmentandinternationaleconomicenvironmentdeteriorationofsuchabigbackground,thefactsofcor-rectlyjudgingthedevelopingsituationofChina’srealestate,asfollowsanalyzingtheinteractionbetweentherealestateandthefinancialoperation,willbegreatbenefitforsteadyimplementationforrealestateindustrypolicyadjustment,pre-ventingtherealestatebubbleandfinancialrisks,promotingtherealestateindustry,financeandeconomyhealthydevelop-ment.Keywords:realestate;financialrisk;relevantcountermeasures

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