我国出口贸易增长波动的影响因素分析

辽宁科技大学本科生毕业设计（论文）第I页我国出口贸易增长波动的影响因素分析摘要改革开放30年来，我国出口导向型的发展战略取得了显著成效，外贸的迅速发展，使出口成为和投资并重的拉动经济增长的三大马车之一。目前，我国的出口贸易额已跃居世界第一，进出口总额排名世界第三。然而，我国高度外向型的经济是比较脆弱的。近年来，受国际金融危机和世界经济衰退的影响，出口增长放缓，波动加剧，出口贸易的波动性势必会影响我国经济的平稳增长。本文研究的目的就是要找出影响中国出口长期增长和短期波动的各种因素，从而找到促进出口长期增长的对策和平滑出口短期波动的建议。本文在前人研究成果的基础上，研究了出口贸易波动对中国经济的影响，指出出口贸易波动通过资源配置、投资、就业、技术进步和外汇储备五个渠道影响宏观经济，从传统国际贸易理论出发，本文分析了影响我国出口贸易增长波动的需求因素、供给因素、制度因素和结构因素，并提出了实现我国出口平稳增长的长期措施和短期措施。关键词：出口贸易；增长波动；影响因素；分析辽宁科技大学本科生毕业设计（论文）第II页TheEffectFactorsAnalysisoftheFluctuationofExportGrowthinChinaAbstractAfter30years’developmentofreformandopeningup，theexport—orientedstrategyofChinahadachievedalotofsignificantresultssothatexporthasbecomeoneofthreehugehorse-drawnvehicalsequalwithinvestment．Atpresent，ourexportranksfirstintheworldandthetotalofimportandexportranksthirdintheworld．However,ourexportisveryfragilebecauseofitshighdependenceontheforeignmarket．So，itsharplydropsdownwhenencounteringinternationalfinancialcrisis.Thepurposeofthispaperisseekingoutthefactorswhichinfluenceourexport’slong-termgrowthandshort-termfluctuation.Thepaperbasedonthetraditionalinternationaltradetheory,fromthequalitativeaspectanalyzesthedemandfactor,thesupplyactor,thesystemfactorandthestructurefactorwhicheffectexportgrowthfluctuation．Basedonthecomparativeanalysis，theendingofpaperproposedlong—termmeasuresandtheshort-termmeasuresforOurexportsteadygrowth．KeyWords:Exporttrade;Growthfluctuation;Influencingfactor;Analysis辽宁科技大学本科生毕业设计（论文）第III页目录第一部分绪论.................................................................................................1一、选题背景及目的....................................................................................................1二、国内外研究现状....................................................................................................1（一）国外研究现状.............................................................................................1（二）国内研究现状.............................................................................................2三、研究方法................................................................................................................3四、研究内容................................................................................................................3第二部分我国出口贸易增长波动对经济发展的影响...............................4一、出口贸易对资源配置的影响................................................................................4二、出口贸易对投资的影响........................................................................................4三、出口贸易对就业的影响........................................................................................5四、出口贸易对技术进步的影响................................................................................6五、出口贸易对外汇储备的影响................................................................................6第三部分影响我国出口贸易增长波动的因素分析...................................8一、出口需求层面的影响因素....................................................................................8（一）世界经济周期的影响.................................................................................8（二）国外收入变动的影响.................................................................................8（三）人民币实际有效汇率的影响.....................................................................9二、出口供给层面的影晌因素....................................................................................9（一）国内经济增长变动的影响.........................................................................9（二）外商直接投资的影响...............................................................................10（三）进口的影晌...............................................................................................10（四）技术进步的影响.......................................................................................11三、制度层面的影响因素..........................................................................................11第四部分促进我国出口贸易稳定增长的对策建议.................................13辽宁科技大学本科生毕业设计（论文）第IV页一、长期措施..............................................................................................................13（一）降低出口市场集中度...............................................................................13（二）提高出口产品的技术含量.......................................................................13（三）积极促进出口增长...................................................................................14二、短期措施..............................................................................................................14（一）充分准备应对压力.................................................................................14（二）灵活应对短期出口波动...........................................................................15（三）灵活应对国际市场变化...........................................................................15（四）合理利用直接投资...................................................................................15结论.........................................................................................................17致谢.........................................................................................................18参考文献..............................................