网络金融创新产品的市场扩散_针对银行卡产品的实证研究

针对银行卡产品的实证研究李春燕俞乔(,200433;,100872):,,,,,:;;:F0625:A:1002-7246(2006)03-0085-09一引言,,,,,,,,,,,,,:1998,E*Trade,,,,,,,,,:2005-11-12:(196712-),,,,(195601-),,,,,20063(309)No3,2006GeneralNo30985(OriginalInnovation),(Du-plicatingInnovation),,,?,,,,,;,;,,;二文献回顾(PilipMolyneux)(NidalSharmroukh)(1999)(NoteIssuanceFacilities,NIFs),,,NIFs,,,,,FrankMBass(1967)BASS,,,,Mansfield(1961),SharifandKabir(1976),Jeuland(1981),,,,三模型:网络金融创新产品的扩散模型1,,:86309dNdt=aN-bN2=(-bN)N(31),dNdt,M,ab,a,b,ba,,N,-bN2aN,,N,,(31),t,N(t)aN0bN0=ab,N(t)a2b,dNdt,N(t)a2b,dNdt,(31)M=ab:N(t)=11M+(1N0-1M)e-a(t-t0)(32):t=t0+1alnMN0-1(33)(31):N,a,,bN(t),,,,,N,,,,(a-bN(t))()0,,ab(32)2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:Ni(t)=11Mi+(1Nio-1Mi)e-(ai+Sharet)(t-t0)(34a)2006387Sharei(t)=Sharei(t)-Sharei(t-1),t=1,2,(34b)Sharei(t)=Ni/nj=1Nj,i=1,2n(34c)Nii,:,Sharei(t)itt-1,n,t,Sharei(t)0,(34a),,:+Sharei(t),bNi(t),+Sharei(t)-bNi(t),31Sharei(t),Ni(t),,Sharei(t),,,1Sharei(t)四计量检验:中国文化背景下银行卡的实证研究12080,1983,:U,1992,413%1989,VisaMaster-CardAMEXJCBDiners,41(34a)(34c),(41),VisaMaster,,,bb,UabNi(t),,3,Visa1998,Master,JCB883092004,U,21992-200311992-2003()VisaMasterJCBUAMEXDinera0470761(2121)***0443059(844)***0838659(1093)***-0319038(342)***0598977(422)***1112751(257)**M26546844(2110)***32704810(335)**1839716(1548)***07027097(530)***0336767(3024)***0111858(1965)***N005142811(726)***1770398(996)***0005607(226)*06342938(1069)***0111677(478)***0010327(113)b00177001350456-00454178995R209971099850998609130914508038AdjR2099630997509982089370893207602:MasterCard19972003,JCB19942003,ba/Mt,***1%,**5%,*10%:(NationalCreditCardCenterofROC)U,,,,,,,2,,,2006389,,,,,,,,,3903094,19962003,,2002,2002,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2003,,,,,,,,(HHI),199302880143,21996-2003()a0423894(3642)***0496722(1541)***0527862(1302)***0621953(543)***1005106(1245)***0673741(1977)***0515304(1467)***0714245(1719)***0496192(1876)***M1332(1477)***37293(465)***21164(1101)***0972952(1437)***0371659(2584)***0375180(1934)***59335(1484)***26182(906)***1087(1107)***N00056777(3075)***0059071(878)***012598(875)**019984(488)***0044024(330)**0097077(828)***045925(965)***0023469(636)***028942(961)***b031801330249063927018000868027300456R2099980999209980097540997209992099750999609990AdjR2099980998909969096310996009987099630999309986:t,***1%,**5%,*10%:1996-2003,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20063914五小结,,,,,,,,,,,,19962003,,,,1999,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,92309[1]Mansfield,E,Technicalchangeandtherateofimitation[J],Econometrica1961,29:741-766[2](PilipMolyneux),(NidalSharmroukh),[M],,2003:204-222[3]FrankMBass,ANewProductGrowthForModelConsumerDurables[J],ManagementScience,1969,Vol15,No5:215-227[4]Easingwood,CJ,MahajanVandMullerEANonuniformInfluenceInnovationDiffusionModelofNewProductAcceptance[J]MarketingScience,1983,2:273-296[5]Sharif,MNandKabirCAGeneralizedModelforForecastingTechnologicalSubstituion[J]TechnologicalForecastingandSo-cialChange,1976,8:353-364[6]Jeuland,A,ParsimoniousModelsforDiffusionofInnovation:DerivationandComparisons,Workingpaper,MarketingDepart-ment,GraduateSchoolofBusinessUniversityofChicago,1981[7],[M],,1991:73-76Abstract:TechnologicaladvancesandtheadventoftheInternethaveledtherevolutionarychangesinthefinancein-dustryoverthepastdecades.Theimportanceofe-financeinmoderneconomieshasgrownconsiderably.Thispaperpresentsthediffusionmodels,whichdescribeandpredictthedynamicaldiffusionprocessesofthee-financialinno-vationproducts,especiallyfromthepointofthefinancialinstitutionsview.Besides,theanalysisoftheempiricalstudiesonTaiwancreditcardmarketandmainlandbankcardmarkethasbeengiventoprovidethetheoreticalrefer-ence,whichcanbehelpfulforthestrategymakingoffinancialintermediationandtheregulationmakingofthesuper-visor.Keywords:financialinnovation,diffusionmodel,e-finance(特约编辑:刘向耘)(校对:LN)2006393