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0INoordwijk,October4,2004Prof.RolandBergerChairman,RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsEUenlargement–newopportunitiesforthechemicalindustry1IA.ThechangingfaceofEuropeB.ChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU15C.OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayersinCEEandCISD.ConclusionContents2IA.ThechangingfaceofEurope3I%ofEU25France,Germany,ItalyandBenelux:Sixwealthycorecountriesstarteconomicintegrationprocessin19571.1EU6(1957)**2003dataEurope'scorecountrieshadsluggishgrowthoverthelasttenyears:Averagegrowth1.3%p.a.inGermany,1.7%inFrance,2.5%NetherlandsGDP/capita[USD]28,608118.0%75.5%%ofUSPopulation[m]22750.0%78.0%GDP[USDbn]6,49458.9%59.0%4IDenmark,IrelandandtheUnitedKingdom:Firstacces-sionroundafter16yearsincreaseseconomicpower1.2EU9(1973)**2003dataAsaresultofEUintegration,Ireland'seconomicgrowthhasbeenout-standinglyhighoverthepasttenyears:7.6%p.a.(DK2.1%,UK2.8%)Population[m]29765.0%102.0%GDP/capita[USD]29,141120.2%76.9%GDP[USDbn]8,65578.5%78.8%%ofEU25%ofUS5IGreece:ApoorercountryjoinstheEuropeanUnionin1981–firstdiscussionsaboutdilution1.3EU10(1981)**2003dataGreecenowhashighaveragegrowthrates(3.8%p.a.from1995-2004)–partlyduetoEuropeanmoneyfromstructural/regionalfundsGDP[USDbn]8,82780.0%80.3%Population[m]30867.7%106.2%GDP/capita[USD]28,659118.3%75.6%%ofEU25%ofUS6ISpainandPortugal:AccessionoftwolessdevelopedsoutherncountriesreducesEU'saveragewealth1.4EU12(1986)**2003dataToday,thesoutherncountriescontributetoEUgrowth:Spain(3.3%p.a.since1995)andPortugal(2.4%p.a.)achievedhighaveragegrowthratesGDP[USDbn]9,81689.0%89.3%Population[m]35978.9%123.0%112.8%72.2%GDP/capita[USD]27,343%ofEU25%ofUS7ISweden,FinlandandAustria:Europe'snorthernenlargementpushesuptheaverageGDPpercapita1.5EU15(1995)**2003dataStimulustoEUgrowthoverthepasttenyears:Finland'seconomygrew3.5%p.a.onaverage,Sweden's2.7%p.a.,andAustria's2.0%p.a.GDP[USDbn]10,53495.5%95.9%Population[m]38183.7%130.5%GDP/capita[USD]27,648114.1%73.0%%ofEU25%ofUS8IGDP[USDbn]11,028100.4%Population[m]455156.0%EasternEurope,MaltaandCyprus:ThebiggestroundofenlargementeverchangesthefaceofEurope1.2EU25(2004)**2003dataGDPgrowthratesofupto6.5%p.a.inCEE(average4.4%p.a.since'95)But:EnlargementisabigchallengeforEuropeanUniontocreatewealthGDP/capita[USD]24,23764.0%%ofUS9I50yearsofenlargement:ComparedtotheUS,theEUhasgainedsizeattheexpenseofaveragewealthToday,Europe'sGDPpercapitaisonlyabouttwo-thirdsthatoftheUS–intermsoftotalGDP,botheconomiesarenowcomparableEUvs.US*[US=100%]59.077.580.389.395.9100.478.0102.0106.2123.8130.5156.075.576.975.672.273.064.01957EU61973EU91981EU101986EU121995EU152004EU25GDPInhabitantsGDPpercapitaUS=100*basedon2003data1.310IWealthgap:Tenyearsago,thenorthoftheEuropeanUnionwasrichandthesouthwaspoor2.1SouthgainedwealthinEU:From34.4%ofEU-9(1986)to59.8%today1995:Gapbetweennorthandsouth*1995*2003data**EU12***Portugal,Spain,GreeceGDP[USDbn]Unemployment[%]Population[m]SOUTH***NORTH**1,1619,37313.49.262319RATIO9:1GDPpercapita[USD]18,72629,3833:22:35:111I7,42927,6204:1Today,thegapisbetweeneastandwest–GDPpercapitaintheEU15isfourtimeshigherthaninEU102.22004:GapbetweeneastandwestEUsupportwillhelpEU10economicdevelopmenttoreachEU15wealth2003EU10EU1549310,53410.58.574381RATIO21:14:55:1GDP[USDbn]Unemployment[%]Population[m]GDPpercapita[USD]12IEU25vs.USvs.Asia:EnlargedEUisastillpowerful,buttheslowestgrowingeconomicregionintheworld3.Opportunity:TennewstatesgivetheEUmomentumtoincreasegrowthECONOMICPOWER[GDP,USDbn]Comparativeindicators2003POPULATION[m]WEALTH[GDPpercapita,USD]GROWTH[avg.GDPgrowth1999-2003,%]10,9882903.311,0284552.3USEU25ASIA**AggregateddataforJapan,China,ASEAN8,4581,9474.837,89024,23712,05813IB.ChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU1514IEastwardenlargemententailsthreatsandopportunitiesforeconomies,companies,andgovernmentsEconomies–UnitlaborcostadvantagesinEU10challengeexistingvaluecreationstructuresinEU15,butalsooffermomentumforstructuralchange/innovationinEU15Companies–CompetitioninEU15aswellasinEU10isincreasing,butalsonewsales,investment,growthandrelocationopportunitiesforEU15companiesinEasternEuropeGovernments–ExistinginstitutionalsetupsinEU15arechallengedbylowertaxes/contributionsandhigherflexibilityinEU10,butalsomomentumforpoliticalchangeEffectsofenlargementonmacroeconomicandmicroeconomiclevels15IMacroeconomicthreats:PressureonEU15labormarketsandcompetitionforbestinstitutionalsetupLowwage-competition/unemploymentthreats–Migration(upto3.8mpeoplefromCEEwillmovetotheEU15)–Offshoring(e.g.830,000peopleinCEEemployedbyGermanfirmsin2004)Lowtax/socialcontributionscompetition–Also:Lessregulation(e.g.IMDbureaucracyindex:Estoniaranked9th,UKranked33rd)Financialburden(EUbudget)–Costofenlargement(2004-2006):49bnEURDifferences:Countrieswithhighdegreeofregulation,geographicalproximitytoCEEandnetcontributorstoEUbudgetaremoreaffected1.139,019,015,00,017,415,08,512,5GERPOLLITESTTaxesContributionsCORPORATETAXES[%]/SOCIALCONTRIBUTIONS2004[%ofGDP]16IMacroeconomicopportunities:Highergrowthmomen-tumforstructural/institutionalchangeandinnovationEnhancedgrowthineastandwest–EU15benef