985:2008,2009,,2090,,,:,,,,2008,,,1999,,,2000-2007GDP7%2007GDP1.23,GDP8660,2009,:()1.,20089,(RTS)5-1069.39%10,,3000106,,41%,,519106,252300,62%2.,19911998,,200810,30%,,,,1013,,,,,,108,98%,KIT,90%()115000,,213.,2003,,2005322428.5810:1200873123.4456:1,21.93%,,,2008723.4456:1101726.3691:1,11.09%:;8-9,330,10,740;20088,5970,1024,4847,1123,20%(:,,,),,,,,,10,,4.,,,,,,,,,8.5%,11.8%,1117,12%,13%--14%,13.8%5.,,200811,4596,GDP33%,(200711447,200811374),,200756%,27262008,3%,,1600,,,,1998,,,2405000,13,(),,2008525,2009108560,,60,,50,14,GDP1%,,,200940--50,200220/,,,,,200810,30,5.9,6,,(),1.,,,,2008115,20-30%2.,,20087,5.2%70%91%(K-),924,,,,-15%,10%,,2025%,,,,--918.8%,,64,,200811,1/3,1010004.6,43.19911998,2008,,2008GDP7.8%7.1%,200966.5%7.3%?(),20088.1%,200811,,70%90%;36%;26%,;23%;18%;16%;12%,;10%CD,:,,,,,,,,,,2008,,,,,20205,6,2007,,2008,:2020,200820,,,,1030,,,,,,;11,,,,2009,,;,20087,,20202800,,,,,,20081120,,,,,,,,,,19911998,,20081120,,,,,,2008,,,,,:,91691747501.12107,,9500,51010,1750,20091750;,;1750,,;,2008-2009500;8304,,300,;,200911;;200911,4900,20101.5;,,,1211100100,1502001120%10%7,--,11500,,11,11%,,19911998,,,,1118,11,20081119,,,,,,,,19911998?,8,,,,,,,,,15-20,,,19911998,:,19911998,,,,1998,240,,,8,,,2090,,IMF,,1998,10,,,,,,,6,3500,WTO,,2090,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,15--208,,,,[1]..:,,2008(2)[2],[3]..::,,2008(4)[4]:,,2008(2)[5]:,,2007(3)[66],,,,,,,[1]Bodie,Zvi,AlexKaneandAlanJ.Marcus.Investments,5thed[M].McGraw-Hill,2002.[2]DelongJB,ShleiferA,LawrenceH.Summers,Robert,J.Waldmann.NoiseTraderRiskinFinancialMarkets[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990,(98):703-738.[3]DelongJB,ShleiferA,LawrenceH.Summers,Robert,J.Waldmann.TheSurvivalofNoiseTradersinFinancialMarkets[J].JournalofBusiness,1991,(46):1-20.[4]Fama,E.TheBehaviorofstockMarketPrices[J].JournalofBusiness,1965,(38):34-106.[5]FarmerJ.D,Loaw.FrontiersofFinance:EvolutionofEfficientMarkets[C].ProceedingsofNationalAcademySciences,1999,(96):9991-9992.[6]HerbertSimon..:,2002.[7]RoutledgeBR.AdaptiveLearninginFinancialMarkets[J].TheReviewofFinancialStudies,1999,(12):1165-1202.[8]MaynardSmith,J.,Price,B.R.TheLogicofAnimalConflict[J].Nature,1973,(246):15-18.[9]MaynardSmith,J.TheTheoryofGamesandTheEvolutionofAnimalConflict[J].JournalofTheoret2icalBiology,1974,(47):9-221.[10]TaylorP.D.,LBJonker.EvolutionarilyStableStrategyandGameDynamics[J].MathBiosci,1978,(40):145-156.[11]Tversky,Amos,DanielKahneman.JudgmentunderUncertainty[J].HeuristicsandBiases.Science,1974,(185):1124-1131.[12].[M].:,2003.[13].[J].,2003(2):15-18.[14].[M].:,,1996.[15],.[M].:,2003.9