财政分权、银行信贷与全要素生产率

第37卷第4期财经研究Vol37No42011年4月JournalofFinanceandEconomicsApr2011王定祥,刘杰,李伶俐(,400715):文章以中国财政分权改革为背景,利用1985-2008年省级面板数据分析了财政分权银行信贷与全要素生产率之间的关系研究发现,始于1985年的财政分权改革有效推动了全要素生产率的提高,且分权制度下政府主导的国有银行信贷总体上提升了全要素生产率;而1994年进一步分权分税改革后,政府对金融部门干预过度,使银行信贷对全要素生产率的促进作用有所减弱进一步地,本文利用Malmquist指数法将全要素生产率分解为技术效率指数和技术进步指数,以考察银行信贷促进全要素生产率提升的内在路径研究发现,财政分权制度背景下银行信贷主要通过技术进步路径促进全要素生产率的提高,而技术效率路径并不显著:财政分权;银行信贷;全要素生产率;Malmquist指数法:F8122;F8305:A:10019952(2011)04006911:20101220:(09YJC790223);(2009JJ09):(1972-),,,;(1987-),,,;(1977-),,,30,2010,GDP,,,30,,,,,,,,(2003)(2004)!69!(2005),,,∀HelpmanKrugman(1985)BenhanbibSpiegel(1994)FilmerPritchett(1999)(2006)(2006)(2008)FDI,,(2005)1987#2001,(2008)(2010),,,,,,,(2006),1994璟和(2008)1991#2005,,GDP,,,:,,,,(2006)璟和沈坤荣(2008)使用地区金融机构存贷和与GDP的比值表示,考虑到国,,,(2005),GDP,,GDP,,2090,1985,1994,1985,,,,,!70!20114,,,(),(),GDP,GDP,1985#2008,,Malmquist,(),,,,,,,,1985,,,(Weingast,1997),,,,,,1994(),,,,,MckinnonShaw(1973),,,,,,!71!:,2090,StiglitzHermann(1991),,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,1985,1990,,1994,,,,,,,60,,,,;,,():,∃x,:TFP=g(X)+f(X)+u(1),TFP,g(X)g(X)0,f(X)f(X)0,u,,,:f(X)=AX2+BX(2),A0,B0,(2)(1):TFP=g(X)+AX2+BX+u(3)!72!20114,g(X)u,F(X)=TFP-u,Y=g(X),:F(X)=Y+AX2+BX(4)(4),F(X),X:F%(X)=2AX+B(5)(4)(5),F(X)=0,X=(-B&B2-4AY)/2A;F%(X)=0,X=-B/2AX1=(-B-B2-4AY)/2A,X2=(-B+B2-4AY)/2A,X*=-B/2A,11,,,0XX1,F(X)0,F%(X)0,,,,;X1XX*,F(X)0,F%(X)0,,,;X=X*,;X*XX2,F(X)0,F%(X)0,,,,;XX2,F(X)0,F%(X)0,1,,,,,,(),,,,:!73!:TFPit=i+1FINSit+2FDit+3FINit∋FDit+(jiCONTROLjit+!it(6),TFP;FINS,;FD;FIN;FIN∋FD,;CONTROL,:1Fare(1994)(DEA),GDPTFP;,ShephardTFP,:(xt,yt)(xt+1,yt+1)tt+1,,t+1tMalmquist:Mt+1(xt,yt,xt+1,yt+1)=dt(xt+1,yt+1)dt(xt,yt)∋dt+1(xt+1,yt+1)dt+1(xt,yt)12(7),dt(xt,yt)dt(xt+1,yt+1)dt+1(xt,yt)dt+1(xt+1,yt+1),,,Malmquist:Mt+1(xt,yt,xt+1,yt+1)=dt+1(xt+1,yt+1)dt(xt,yt)dt(xt,yt)dt+1(xt,yt)∋dt(xt+1,yt+1)dt+1(xt+1,yt+1)12(8),,;,,Malmquist:Mt+1TFP(xt,yt,xt+1,yt+1)=Mt+1EC(xt,yt,xt+1,yt+1)∋Mt+1TC(xt,yt,xt+1,yt+1)(9)TFP,Goldsmith(1951),:Kt=It/Pt+Kt-1(1-∀)(10),Kt,It,Pt,∀1985(2005),6%(Young,2000),GDPGDP2.GDP(FINS),GDP(FIN∋FD)3.(FD),!74!201144.(GDP3)GDPGDP(URB)(TZ)GDP,GDP(OPEN)GDP,1985-2008(FDI)GDP,1985-2008;(EDU)()1985-200829,;1997,,(2000-2009))∗(2009))∗(2009))∗(2000-2009))∗(1990-2008))∗(2000-2009))∗)∗):1949#1980∗(2004-2009)11TFP6961113000030109800866015790FINS6960241500083018620002012670FIN6960947400101090060491222579FD6960710100039071350231909500GDP36960346300059034370178907320URB6960297900059024690071108746TZ6960367300045034370152808730OPEN6960296400175011010000037171FDI6960028000013001570000002425EDU6960006100002000300000500367Eviews601985-2008+(FINS)(FD)(FIN∋FD);,+,;−,1994(FIN∋FD∋DUM94),2!75!:2(1985-2008)+,−C09038***10753***10761***FINS-01968***-02638***-02324***FD02170***00976*00510*FIN∋FD01464***02132***02359***FIN∋FD∋DUM94-00363***GDP304019***03852***URB-00928-00420TZ0004100097OPEN-00104-00121FDI06234***07876***EDU56664***56471***R2039027028F522***678***683***Hausman2563***2644***2918***:******10%5%1%+,(FINS),,,;,,,(FD),(FIN∋FD),(,2005;,2006;璟和沈坤荣,2008)关于政府干预下金融发展成为全要素生产率提高;,,,,,,,(,2005),,,(FIN)(FD)(FIN∋FD),−FIN∋FD∋DUM94,FIN∋FD∋DUM941%,FINSFIN∋FD,,,,,−,,(GDP3)(FDI)(EDU);(URB)!76!20114,,,,,;(TZ),;(OPEN),−,,FDI,MalmquistTFP(EC)(TC),:ECit=i+1FINSit+2FINit∋FDit+(jiCONTROLjit+uit(11)TCit=i+1FINSit+2FINit∋FDit+(jiCONTROLjit+uit(12)(11)(12),3.,FINS,FIN∋FD5%t,;/,FINS,FIN∋FD,(),,,,3(1985-2008)./ECTCC10344***10713***FINS-00231-02655***FIN∋FD00303**01930***GDP301255**01796***URB-00599**-00505TZ0010900216OPEN-00026-00055FDI01332*04893***EDU17330**36116***R2022028F177*739Hausman1593121***1985-2008,!77!:,1985;,,;,,,,,:(1),,,,;,(2),,,,,(3),,,,(4),,,,,(5),,,,,,:∀30,42%(,2009)∃,:[1],.:1952-1998[J].,2003,(2):17-24.[2],.:1987-2001[J].,2005,(11):34-45.[3],.:1952-2000###DEA[J].,2006,(8):22-30.[4],,.[J].,2006,(2):99-109.!78!20114[5],.###Malmquist[J].,2008,(3):46-50.[6]璟,沈坤荣.地方政府干预区域金融发展与中国经济增长方式转型###基于财政分[J].,2008,(6):122-141.[7].###[J].,2010,(4):26-31.[8]HelpmanE,KrugmanP.MarketandForeigntrade[M].MITPress,Cambridge,1985.[9]BencivengaVR,BDSmith.Financialintermediationandendogenousgrowth[J].ReviewofEconomicsStudies,1991,58:195-209.[10]FilmerD,PritchettL.Theimpactofpublicspendingonhealth:Doesmoneymatter[J].SocialScienceandMedicine,1999,49(1):1309-1323.[11]MckinnonRI.Moneyandcapitalineconomicdevelopment[M].WashingtonDC:BrookingsInstitutionPress,1973.[12]WeingastB.Thepoliticalfoundationsofdemocracyandruleoflaw[J].AmericanPoliticalScienceReview,1997,91:245-263.FiscalDecentralization,BankCreditandTotalFactorProductivityWANGDingxiang,LIUJie,LILingli(CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,SouthwestUniversity,Chongqing400715,China)Abstract:BasedonthereformoffiscaldecentralizationinChina,thispaperanalyzestherelationshipamongfiscaldecentralization,bankcreditandtotalfactorproductivitybyprovincialpaneldatafrom1985to2008.Theresearchfindsthatthereformoffiscaldecentralizationwhichbeganin1985haseffectivelypromotedtotalfactorproductivity,andunderfiscaldecentralization,governmentledstateownedbankcreditoverallraisestotalfactorproductivity.However,furtherdecentralizationandtaxreformsince1994resultsin