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密级：学校代码：10075分类号：学号：20090127经济学硕士学位论文学位申请人：徐小丽指导教师：张玉柯教授学位类别：经济学硕士学科专业：国际贸易学授予单位：河北大学答辩日期：二○一二年六月ClassifiedIndex:CODE:10075U.D.C.:NO:20090127ADissertationfortheDegreeofM.EconomicsTheResearchonInfluenceofTradeprotectionismonChina’sExportTradeunderFinancialCrisisCandidate:XuXiaoliSupervisor:Prof.ZhangYukeAcademicDegreeAppliedfor:MasterofEconomicsSpecialty:InternationalTradeUniversity:HebeiUniversityDateofOralExamination:June,2012摘要I摘要贸易保护主义是伴随着国际贸易的产生而产生的，只要有国际贸易的存在，就必然会有贸易保护主义，而且贸易保护的强度会随着经济危机的出现而加强。此次由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机使贸易保护主义再度盛行起来，我国是现在昀大的发展中国家，而且现在的发展速度很快，这就导致了我国成为了各国实施贸易保护主义措施的主要对象。由于我国经济的发展对外贸的依存度很大，所以贸易保护主义的盛行对我国的出口产生的影响也直接影响着我国经济的发展。因此，研究金融危机背景下的贸易保护主义对我国来说有着十分重大的意义。本文以金融危机为背景，根据当前我国所遭受的贸易保护主义措施，归纳分析了当前贸易保护主义措施的新特点，并结合相关的理论研究了金融危机背景下贸易保护主义盛行的原因。正是因为贸易保护主义的这些新特点，使我国的出口企业在面对突如其来的各式各样的贸易保护主义措施时困难重重，以致对我国的出口贸易产生了很大的影响，其中昀直接的影响是造成了我国出口贸易额的急剧减少。本文选取我国对美国机电产品的出口额为被解释变量，进出口产品的相对价格、美元兑人民币的汇率、技术性贸易壁垒、美国国内的需求水平、美国的经济景气状况为解释变量，经过昀小二乘法得出结论：贸易保护主义的实施会导致我国出口贸易额的减少。同时贸易保护主义还会导致我国出口市场的收缩，降低我国出口产品的竞争力和增加我国出口产品的风险。针对上述影响，我国应充分利用世界贸易组织的相关规则，加强国际合作；在国内，政府、行业协会和企业应该团结一致，共同应对贸易保护主义。关键词金融危机贸易保护主义新兴经济体AbstractIIAbstractTradeprotectionisaccompaniedbytheemergenceofInternationaltradetoproduce,aslongastheinternationalpresence,itisnotonlyhavetradeprotectionism,butalsothetradeprotectionwillbestrengthenalongwiththeeconomiccrisis.TheUnitedStatessub-loancrisisleadtotheinternationalfinancialcrisis,andthetradeprotectionismhasflourishedagain.Chinaisthebiggestdevelopingcountrynow,andthedevelopmentspeedisveryfast,thatisleadtoChinahasbecomethemainobjectofthetradeprotectionmeasureofimplementedbyallofworldcountries.Duetothedevelopmentofourcountryeconomydependsonexportdeeply,sotheimpactoftheprevalenceofthetradeprotectionisminourcountrywilldirectlyaffectstheeconomicdevelopmentinchina.Therefore,tostudytradeprotectionisminthebackgroundoffinancialcrisisishavingverygreatsense.Thispaperisbasisonthebackgroundoffinancialcrisis,accordingtothecurrentofprotectionistmeasureswhichourcountryfaced,analyzingthenewcharacteristicsofthecurrenttradeprotectionismmeasures.Andwiththerelevanttheoreticalresearchedthereasonfortheprevalenceoftradeprotectionunderthebackgroundoffinancialcrisis.Becauseofthesenewformsandcharacteristicsoftradeprotectionism,leadingtomakingtheexportenterpriseofourcountrycan'trespondtocomeunexpectedlythekindsoftradeprotectionismmeasures,sothathadagreatimpactonexporttradeofourcountry,themostdirecteffectiscausedourcountry'sexporttradevolumedecreaseddramatically.ThispaperselectionofmechanicalandelectricalproductsofChina'sexportstoAmericaastheexplanatoryvariables,therelativepriceofimportandexportproducts,theU.S.dollaragainsttheRMBexchangerate,thetechnicalbarrierstotrade,theUnitedStatesdomesticdemandlevel,theUnitedStatesofAmerica'seconomicboomstatevariablesforexplaining,throughLeast-SquaresmethodanalyzedtradeprotectionismwilldirectlyleadtotheimplementationofChina'sexportreduction,atthesametimetradeprotectionwillleadtoChina'sexportmarketisreduced,reducingthecompetitivenessofourexportproductsandincreasingourexportproducts’riskeffect.Inaccordancewiththeinfluence,puttingforwardourcountryshouldmakefulluseofAbstractIIIWTOregulation,strengtheninternationalcooperation.Inourcountry,thegovernment、industryassociationandallenterprisesshouldunitetogethertodealwiththeimpactsoftradeprotectionismmeasures.KeywordsFinancialCrisisTradeProtectionismEmergingEconomies目录IV目录第1章导论··························································································································11.1研究的背景与意义··································································································11.1.1研究背景········································································································11.1.2研究意义········································································································21.2国内外研究现状······································································································31.3研究的主要内容······································································································71.4创新点······················································································································8第2章金融危机背景下贸易保护主义的特点及盛行的原因分析····································92.1金融危机背景下贸易保护主义的特点分析···························································92.1.1形式的多样化································································································92.1.2范围的扩大化································································································92.1.3对象的针对性······························································································112.1.4手段的合法性······························································································122.2金融危机背景下贸易保护主义盛行的原因分析·················································122.2.1金融危机背景下宏观经济政策的实效性···················································132.2.2金融危机背景下产品内贸易的放大效应···················································132.2.3金融危机背景下的全球