金融控制与贷款准备金政策工具的选择

24220093TheJournalofGangdongUniversityofFinanceVol.24,No.2Mar.2009,361005:,,,,:;;;:F822.0:A:167421625(2009)0220034209:2009201215:2008(08JJD790136):(19732),,,,2090,,,,,1991,,,,;,,,20,,,,43,,,,,,M2/GDP,M2/GDP,(2006)[1],M2/GDP(financialcontrol),,,,Mckinnon(1993)[2],,,,(,2005)[3],,,,2007,,,,,,,;,,,(,2007)[4],,2007,,,,,,53209019926,;19921;1999(2005),,;;,(impossibletriangle),,,,,(loanreserverequirement),,Finkelstein(1980)[5]()()5,,,,Modigliani(1970)[6]Barro(1972)[7],,;SantomeroandSiegel(1981)[8],,Finkelstein(1980)Tobin(1969)[9],(automaticstabilizer),,,,(ambiguous)(Brainard,1964)[10],Finkelstein,,63,,,,,,,,;,;,,,;,,,,,;,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,AllenandGale(2000)[11],,,,;,,,,,,,73,,,Palley(2004)[12]IS2LM,,,,,,,,5%,15.5%,,,,,,(pro2cyclicity),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(counter2cyclical)Finkelstein(1980),1967,1971,,BrunoGehrig(1976)[13],,197141,,19711580%,0.25%,20%0.25%19721121,33%,19724583,,1974,,197212,,19731119741113%,0.3%0.1%,0.01%(197470.015%),,1986,,,;,Kanne(1994)[14],,,Jarchow(1995)[15],,,,,,(7),1998,,(),207080,,,,20071193,,,,1973,,(Jarchow,1995),,1970,,,,1973925,,,,,14%,(1%);,,0.1%,15%(0.15%),,,R=€r+0.1%,R,€r,,,,,20%,14%6,10%(1%+6%0.1%0.15%),,,,,,,,,,,,,,(Kanne,1994)[14];,,CPI,,,,,,(1999)[16],,,;,,(3),,5%6%,3%,,,,046%8%,3%;,,0.36%,0.72%,,,,,,,,Finkelstein,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,;,,,,;,,14:[1].M2/GDP[J.,2006(3).[2]Mckinnon,RonaldI,1993.TheOrderofEconomicLiberalization:FinancialControlintheTransitiontoMarketEconomy,theJohnsHopkinsUniversityPress,BaltimoreandLondon.[3].[J].,2005(7).[4],.[J].,2007(4).[5]JohnM.Finkelstein,1980.TheMacroeconomicImpactofaLoanReserveRequirement,TheFinancialReview,Vol.15,No.3:24235.[6]Modigliani,Franco,RobertRasche,andJ.PhillipeCooper,1970.CentralBankPolicy,theMoneySupply,andtheShort2TermRateofInterest,JournalofMonty,CreditandBanking,Vol.2,No.2:1662218.[7]Barro,Robert,andAnthonySantomero,1972.HouseholdMoneyHoldingsandtheDemanddepositRate,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,Vol.4,No.2:3972413.[8]Santomero,Anthony,andJeremySiegel,1981.BankRegulationandMacroeconomicStability,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.71:39253.[9]Tobin,James,1969.AGeneralEquilibriumApproachtoMonetaryTheory,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,Vol.1,No.1:15229.[10]Brainard,William,1964.FinancialIntermediariesandaTheoryofMonetaryControl,YaleEconomicEssays,Vol.4,No.2:4312482.[11]Allen,Franklin,andDouglasGale,2001.BubblesandCrises,TheEconomicJournal,Vol.110,No.460:2362255.[12]Palley,Thomas,2004.Asset2basedReserveRequirements:ReassertingDomesticMonetaryControlinanEraofFinancialInnovationandInstability,ReviewofPoliticalEconomy,Vol.16,No.1:43258.[13]Gehrig,Bruno,1976.GeldmengeundMindestreserven:AktivenoderPassivenalsBemessungsgrundlage?Universit¾tBern,PaulHaupt,Diss.[14]Kanne,Stefanie,1994.DasgeldpolitischeInstrumentderMindestreserve2EineAnalyseamBeispielderMindestreservepolitikenderDeutschenBundesbank,derBankvonFrankreichundderSchweizerischenNationalbank,Heinrich2Heine2Universit¾tDsseldorf,Diss.[15]Jarchow,Hans2Joachim,1995.TheorieundPolitikdesGeldes,Bd.II:GeldmarktundgeldpolitischesInstrumentarium,7.Aufl.,G?ttingen.[16].[J].,1990(5).()(93)24:[1]Schweizer,B.,andA.Sklar,1983.ProbabilisticMetricSpaces.NewYork:NorthHolland.[2].Copula[J].,2004(12).[3].Copula[J].,2004(12).[4].Var[J].(),2005(5).[5].(Copula)[J].,2002(4).[6]CGenest.L2PRivest,1993.StatisticalInferenceProceduresforBivariatArchimedeanCopulas,JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,Vol.88,No.423:103521042.()TheResearchofInvestmentPortfolioSelectionModelBasedonCopulaYinXiangfei1andChenLiuqin2(1.InformationDepartment,HunanUniversityofCommerceChangsha410205,China;2.TianjinAcademyofSocialScience,Tianjin300191,China)Abstract:Basedonthedefinitionofyieldrateandriskofprobability,weformulateaportfoliomodelaboutriskandyieldrate.Inordertogetfittingjointdistribution,indetailweusetheCopulafunctiontoformulatejointdistributiononseveralcapitalyieldrate.Theyieldrateisnotrequiredtosubmittowienerprocess,sotheCopulaportfoliomodelcanbemorewidelyapplied.AfterempiricalstudyonShanghaiandShenzhensecuritymarketleadingindexatclosedata,wefindthat,iftheyieldrate(yieldbasedonprobabilityp0)isfixed,portfoliowillreducerisk.Keywords:PVar;VaR;Copula;investmentportfolio(42)FinancialControlandtheSelectionoftheLoanReserveRequirementHuangFeiming(SchoolofEconomics,XiamenUniversity,Xiamen361005,China)Abstract:Financialcontrolisofgreatimportancefortheeconomicmarketizationandfinancialliberalization,thestatesintheprocessofimplementingfinancialcontrolrequiretochoosefeasibleandeffectivestrategictools.ThefinancialbigcrisiscausedbytheAmericansub2primecrisismakescleartheimportanceofthechoiceoffinancialcontroltools.Chinapscentralbankischoosingsomepolicytoolstocarryouttheoperationofmacro2control,suchaslegaldepositreserverequirement,officialinterestrateandsoon,butitisakindoffinancialrepression.Therefore,thepaperadvocateschoosingtheloanreserverequirementpolicyasafinancialcontroltooltopromoteprocessofChinapseconomicmarketizationandfinancialliberalization.However,thedepositreserverequirementandloanreserverequirementarepossibletobecoexistentatthemoment.Keywords