金融稳定监控英文

Thispaperpresentspreliminaryfindingsandisbeingdistributedtoeconomistsandotherinterestedreaderssolelytostimulatediscussionandelicitcomments.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYork,theBoardofGovernors,ortheFederalReserveSystem.Anyerrorsoromissionsaretheresponsibilityoftheauthors.FederalReserveBankofNewYorkStaffReportsFinancialStabilityMonitoringTobiasAdrianDanielCovitzNellieLiangStaffReportno.601February2013RevisedJune2014FinancialStabilityMonitoringTobiasAdrian,DanielCovitz,andNellieLiangFederalReserveBankofNewYorkStaffReports,no.601February2013;revisedJune2014JELclassification:E58,G01,G23,G28AbstractWepresentaforward-lookingmonitoringprogramtoidentifyandtrackthesourcesofsystemicriskovertimeandtofacilitatethedevelopmentofpre-emptivepoliciestopromotefinancialstability.Weofferaframeworkthatdistinguishesbetweenshocks,whicharedifficulttoprevent,andvulnerabilitiesthatamplifyshocks.Buildingonsubstantialresearch,wefocusonleverage,maturitytransformation,interconnectedness,complexity,andthepricingofriskastheprimaryvulnerabilitiesinthefinancialsystem.Themonitoringprogramtracksthesevulnerabilitiesinfourareas:thebankingsector,shadowbanking,assetmarkets,andthenonfinancialsector.Theframeworkalsohighlightsthepolicytrade-offbetweenreducingsystemicriskandraisingthecostoffinancialintermediationbytakingpre-emptiveactionstoreducevulnerabilities.Keywords:financialstability,systemicrisk_________________Adrian:FederalReserveBankofNewYork(e-mail:[e-mail]).Covitz,Liang:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(e-mail:[e-mail],[e-mail]).TheauthorsthankSirioAmaronte,WilliamBassett,MarkCarey,BurcuDuygan-Bump,MatthewEichner,AndreasLehnert,JamesMcAndrews,RobertMotyka,WilliamNelson,MichaelPalumbo,StevenSharpe,HyunShin,JeremyStein,KevinStiroh,andGretchenWeinbachforhelpfulcommentsonearlierdrafts,andGregoryDonadioforexcellentresearchassistance.TheyalsothankseminarparticipantsattheMacroeconomicModelingandSystemicRiskResearchInitiativeoftheBeckerFriedmanInstitute,theEuropeanCentralBank’sBankFundingConference,andtheBankofTurkey’sG-20SystemicRiskConferenceforhelpfulfeedback.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYork,theBoardofGovernors,ortheFederalReserveSystem.1TableofContents1.Introduction............................................................................................................................................12.ConceptualFrameworkforFinancialStability......................................................................................33.ProgramforMonitoringFinancialStability..........................................................................................7A.AssetMarkets...................................................................................................................................7EquitySecurities...................................................................................................................................9TreasurySecurities..............................................................................................................................10CorporateDebt....................................................................................................................................11ResidentialRealEstatePrices.............................................................................................................12B.Banking...........................................................................................................................................13Financialmarket-basedsystemicriskmeasures.................................................................................13Supervisorystresstests.......................................................................................................................14Networkmeasures...............................................................................................................................15C.ShadowBanking.............................................................................................................................16Dealer-intermediatedfinance..............................................................................................................17Wholesaleshort-termfunding.............................................................................................................18SecuritizationsandNewFinancialProducts.......................................................................................20D.NonfinancialSector........................................................................................................................22Aggregateprivatenonfinancialsectorleverage..................................................................................23Nonfinancialbusinesses..........................................................................................