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Unit1EMUHasExchangeRatePolicyImplicationsforTransitionCountriesSeekingEUMembership[KeyWords]EuropeanEconomicandMonetaryUnion(EMU)欧洲经济货币联盟EMUreferencevalues欧洲经济货币联盟参考标准Thenewexchangeratemechanism(ERM2)新汇率机制IMF’sFiscalAffairsDepartment国际货币基金组织财政部Thecurrencyriskpremium货币风险溢酬Asymmetricrealshocks非对称性实际冲击Anindependentmonetaryandexchangeratepolicy独立的货币汇率政策Macroeconomicstability宏观经济稳定性Budgetbalance预算平衡Synchronizedcycles同步的循环Biasedtowardagricultureandindustry偏重于工农业Non-coreEUmembers欧盟非核心成员国Amanagedfloat(exchangeratearrangement)有管理的浮动汇率制Anundeclaredmarginagainstthedeutschemark钉紧德国马克，保持一个不公开的差额Apre-announcedcrawlingpeg预先公布的缓慢钉紧汇率制度Acurrencyboardarrangement货币局制度、联系汇率制度Externalcurrentaccount对外经常性项目账户Thecapitalaccount资本账户Legalreserverequirementsystems法定存款准备金制度Sterilizedintervention对冲操作Thenominalexchangerate名义利率Exchangerateregimes汇率制度Appropriateflankingpolicies适当的配套政策Containmentoffiscalimbalances遏制财政失衡Aprudentmonetarystance审慎的货币政策Fixedparity固定平价Purchasingpowerparity(PPP)购买力平价Interestrateparity(IRP)利率平价Goldparity金平价Widentheofficialmargins放宽官方波动幅度ShadowtheEurounilaterally单方面暗中钉紧欧元Fullcapitalaccountliberalization资本项目的完全放开[Notes]1.IncludingconvergencetowardEMUreferencevaluesandadherencetothenewexchangeratemechanism(ERM2)createdfornonparticipatingEUmembers.2.Thatis,thosethathaveoptedout,orbeenleftout,ofEMU.3.Albeit4.EnteringtheEMUcurrencyareaentailsbothcostandbenefitsforcandidatecountries.5.Also,thecurrencyriskpremium,reflectedintheinterestrate,wouldfallandeventuallyvanish.6.Animportantpotentialcostofjoiningacurrencyareaisthatitimpairsacountry’sabilitytoabsorbasymmetricrealshocksintheabsenceofanindependentmonetaryandexchangeratepolicy.7.And,conversely,participationinacurrencyarealeadstotradeexpansionandthustomoresynchronizedcycles.8.Theireconomicstructureisonlymoderatelymorebiasedtowardagricultureandindustryrelativetoservicesthanthatofnon-coreEUmembers,exceptGreece.9.Atoneendofthespectrum,theCzechRepublicfollowsamanagedfloatsubordinatetotheinflationtargetsetbythecentralbank.10.Thecurrentmacroeconomicsituationinthesecountriesisbroadlycharacterizedbysustainablegrowth,underpinnedbyrapidlyincreasinglaborproductivity,andbyadecelerationininflationtolowdouble-digitorhighsingle-digitrates.11.Theeffectiscompoundedbyasurgeinforeigndirectinvestment.12.InsufficientfinancialandenterpriserestructuringhasrenderedtheCzecheconomyvulnerable.13.Allfivecountries-tovaryingdegrees-willneedtomakesteadyprogresstowardincreasedwageflexibility,containmentoffiscalimbalancessupportedbyaprudentmonetarystance,andfinancialsectorrestructuring.14.However,accessioncountriesshouldexercisecautioninwideningthebandduringaperiodofturbulenceintheforeignexchangemarket.15.Topreservecredibility,theauthoritiesshoulddeclarethecountry’scommitmenttoreinstatetheformerparityfollowingatemporarydeviationduetoaspeculativeattack.16.*Theotherdilemmaentersontherequirementoffullcapitalaccountliberalizationwhilethecandidatecountriesremainvulnerabletodestabilizingcapitalflowspromptedbyrapidshiftsininvestorsentiment.[Exercise2]1．美国是个移民国家，他号称接纳了那些不愿或不能回到自己祖国去的许多人。TheUSAisanimmigrantcountry,whichclaimedtohaveacceptedmanypeoplewhohaveoptedout,orbeenleftout,totheircountries.2．科研工作需要具备吃苦耐劳的精神。Theworkofscientificresearchentailsthespiritoftough.3．在全球经济金融化的趋势下，实体经济与虚拟经济越来越不能同步发展。Withthetrendoffinancializationofglobaleconomy,therealeconomyandvirtualeconomycannotdevelopsynchronizemoreandmore.4．有人主张农、轻、重并举，不可偏重于其中任何一项。Someonemaintainstheagricultureandthelightindustryandtheheavyindustryshouldbepaidthesameattention,andcan’tbebiasedtowardanyone.5．仅仅只用了50多年的时间，金融从属于贸易的局面便被彻底扭转了。Onlyinmorethan50years,thesituationthatfinancesubordinatetotradeisturnedtotally.6．该国的经济以低膨胀、高增长为特征。Theeconomyofthiscountryischaracterizedbylowinflationandhighgrowth.7．有人担心，广东国投（GITI）的破产会有损于国家的信誉。SomeisworriedthatthebankruptofGITIwillimpairedthecreditofthecountry.8．我本人对金融衍生产品在我国的应用持谨慎的态度。Onmyown,Imaintainaprudentstandtotheapplicationofthefinancialderivativeproductsinourcountry.[Exercise3]ThefistdaysandweeksoftheEurowereheadytimesformanyinthebankingindustry,particularlyforthoseinvolvedinclearingandsettlement.欧元诞生之初，许多银行，特别是那些清算业务量比较大的银行都存在着如何适应的问题。FortheEBAClearingCompanyitwasimportanttocapturetheexperiencesofthoseoperatinginthenewEuroenvironment.WethereforecarriedoutasurveythathighlightedhowthedynamicsoftheEurohaveaffectedthepaymentbusinessoftheclearingbanks.Theexercisehighlightedseveralissues,suchaspaymenttrends,end-of-daysettlementandliquiditymanagement,andchangingpracticesincorrespondentbanking.对于EBA清算公司来说，在欧元出现以后，如何学会在新环境下生存，如何获取经营经验，都是重要的问题。正是在此背景下，我们开展了一项调查，以揭示欧元的变化会对清算银行的支付业务产生何种影响。调查涉及以下问题：支付手段的变化趋势，每日终了时的结算，流动性管理以及银行业经营模式的变化。After8weeksofliveexperiencefortheparticipantsinEBAEuroClearingSystem,alsoknownasEURO1,EBAClearingmetnotonlyheadsofpaymentsbutalsotreasures,back-officeoperators,organizationmanagers,ITconsultantsandcorrespondentbankers.对EBA欧元清算系统（也称为EUROI）的参与者进行8周的实地调查后发现，EBA清算公司不仅遇到了支付量很大的客户，而且遇到了诸如拥有巨额财富的人、后台操作者、组织管理者、IT顾问和其他银行家之类的客户。From4Januaryto9Aprilthisyear,thetotalnumberoftransactionsprocessedbyEuro1amountedto