高盛：中国银行业研究（英文版）

ReadingtheFIGLeavesNovember23,2004Coverageview:AttractiveAsiaBanksReform:AnoverlookedChinalandmark;aKorearoadmap,November3ChinaBanks:Movingclosertocriticalmass?October5ChinaBanksBankreformandREDBOLT:ongoingwins,likelymoves,missinglinks.Credittighteningmeasuresaresucceedingandwillstay,notfade.Reformwinscontinue,addingtothemomentum.Thatsaid,westillseeseveralmissinglinkstobankreform,whichwebunchintoanacronymtitledREDBOLT.Bankreformwinscontinue,addtomomentum/criticalmassRecentwins:1.Credittighteningmeasuressucceeding,takingoutthefroth,lendingexcesses.2.Lower/morerealisticloangrowthtargetsheardfrommostbanks.3.Betterawarenessofcreditcosts,risk-adjustedmarginsforvariouslendingbusinesses.4.Slowlyimprovingcreditindependenceandcorporategovernance,creditindependence;newNPLsmayincreasinglyreflectmacrocycles,badmicromoves,notfraudorstate-mandatedunviableloans.5.HSBCaswake-upcallforlocalbanksafterstringofstrategicinvestmentsintoChinafinancials.Likelygovernmentmoves,bankingsectortrends1.Credittighteningmeasureswilllikelypersist,notliftorfade.2.Market-orientedmeasureswillslowlysupplementadministrativemeasures.3.Wethinkpolicymakersarerelativelysatisfiedwithmacroconditions,innorushtoraiseratesagain.4.BanksadmitNPLswillrisepost-2003/2004loanboom.5.Creditcardsarenowtakingoffasflaggedearlier,butrisksabound.6.Wewillseemorenewentrants/spinoffs/strategicalliances,notconsolidation.REDBOLT:Still-missinglinkstobankreformsuccessRiskmanagementreforms:frombuzzwordstopractice.EarningspowergainstohelpbanksearntheirwayoutofNPLs.Deepernotjustpartialstatebankprivatizations.Bankbuyoutsnotjustbuy-insbyforeignbanks/investors.Outsidehirestoshakeup,quickenreform.LoangrowthrestrainttolevelsclosertonominalGDPgrowth.TighterNPLnorms,provisionrequirements,givenwidegapbetweenstatedversusperceivedrealbookvalues.ChinaMerchantsremainsourtoppickamongA-sharelistedbanksAvisittotheircreditcardcentershowshowprogressiveChinaMerchantsBankisrelativetootherbanks.Whyreadthisreport•Chinabankreformwins:closertocriticalmass?•What’sahead:Likelygovernmentmoves,bankingsectortrends•What’[e-mail]:[e-mail]:[e-mail]:852-2978-0169GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertification,seepage22.Forotherimportantdisclosures,seepage23,goto:BankreformandREDBOLT—ongoingwins,likelymoves,missinglinks1Recentbankreformwinsaddtomomentum,criticalmass1Likelygovernmentmoves,bankingsectortrends2Stillmissinglinkstobankreformsuccess:REDBOLT2Backdrop3Recentbankreformwins31.Credittighteningmeasuresaresucceeding32.Welcomesurprise:Lower/morerealisticloangrowthtargetsbybanks43.BetterawarenessofNPLs,creditcosts,riskadjustedmargins54.Slowlyimprovingcorporategovernance,creditdecisioningindependence65.HSBCChinamovesaswake-upcallforlocalbanks7Wrappingup9Likelygovernmentmoves,bankingsectortrends91.Credittighteningmeasuresheretostay92.Market-orientedmeasureswillgraduallysupplementadministrativemeasures93.Norushforfurtherinterestratehikes94.BanksknowNPLswillrise,reflecting2003/2004loanboom105.Cardmarketabouttotakeoff,butcareneededasrisksabound136.Morenewentrants/strategicalliances,notconsolidation,forChinabanksector13STAN(IL):Chartsnewpathwith20%stakeinnewChinabank;positiveforSTAN,Chinabankreform16Stillmissinglinkstobankreformsuccess:REDBOLT16Riskmanagementreforms:Frombuzzwordstoingrainedpractice17Earningspowergains:NeededtohelpbanksearntheirwayoutofNPLs18Deepernotjustpartialstatebankprivatizations19Bankbuyoutsnotjustbuy-insbyforeignbanks/investors20Outsidehirestoshakeup/quickeninternalreform20LoangrowthrestrainttolevelsclosertonominalGDPgrowth22TighterNPLnorms,provisionrequirements;willnarrowstatedversusperceivedrealBVPSgap23DisclosuresThepricesinthisreportarebasedonthemarketcloseofNovember22,2004.ChinaBanksGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch-November23,20041Overview:BankreformandREDBOLT--ongoingwins,likelymoves,missinglinksThisreportbuildsonourNovember19ChinaBanks:Takeawaysfromfieldtrip—morerealisticloangrowthaspirationsnote,addsaglobal/regionalbankreformoverlayandhighlightsChinabankingongoingwins,likelytrends,plusstillseveralmissinglinkstobankingreform,whichwebunchintoanacronymtitledREDBOLT.OurtoppickamongA-sharelistedbanksremainsChinaMerchantsBank(CMB)witha12-monthpricetargetofRmb8.86(2.53X2005EBVPS);ourrecentmeetingwiththeircreditcardheadaddstoourviewofhowwell-placedandprogressively-runCMBisrelativetootherbanks.Keyrisks:risingnon-performingloans(NPLs),valuationderating.Recentbankreformwinsaddtomomentum,criticalmassRecentbankr