麦肯锡应对金融危机内部资料 - Leadership Lessons for Hard Times

1JULY2009LeadershiplessonsforhardtimesAseriesofinterviewswith14CEOsandchairmenofmajorcompaniesshedslightonthefoundationsofcorporateleadership.DennisCarey,MichaelPatsalos-Fox,andMichaelUseem2Duringthecurrentglobalrecession,muchattentionhasbeendevotedtothemistakesthatsparkedthefinancialandeconomiccrisis,inhopesofnotrepeatingthem.Lesshasbeengiventowhat’sbeendonewellamidtheturmoil—tolearn,forexample,howbesttoleadacompanythroughthesetoughtimes.Tocontributetothatunderstanding,weinterviewedtheleadersof14majorcompanies(seesidebar,“Who’swho”),allseasonedCEOsorchairmen,askingthemtoreflectonwhattheyfelttheyhavelearnedsofar.Wewerekeennottolimittheircommentstothecurrentrecessionandthereforealsoaskedthemtoconsiderpreviouschallengestheyhadfacedinaturnaroundoracrisis.Thecompaniestheyleadareindifferentindustries,facedifferentchallenges,andhaveperformedquitedifferently.Weareattemptingneithertojudgetheirperformancenortodrawupasetofrulesonhowtoleadthroughtoughtimes.Instead,whatemergesfromtheinterviewsisagreementonsomebroadprinciplesthatcanhelpguidebehaviorintheexecutivesuiteandtheboardroom,aswellasinteractionswithemployees,customers,andinvestors.ConfrontrealityAlwaysquestionwhetherthe“haloeffect”ofabusinessorbusinesssituationisblindingyoutowhatliesonthehorizon.—HerbertHenkel,chairmanandCEOofIngersollRandFewpredictedthemagnitudeofthecurrentcrisis.Butthoseinthecorporateworldwhofirstdetected—andaccepted—thefactthatsomethingwasamisshadadistinctadvantageinimplementingstrategiestohelpweatherthestorm.Inthesummerof2008,IngersollRand’sHerbertHenkelnoticedthatEuropeanordersinthecompany’stransportrefrigerationbusinesshadslumped,eventhoughbusinesswasstillboominginotherdivisions.Hewasalarmed:afallinthedeliveryofperishablefoodssurelyindicatedtroubleinthesupplychain.“Icouldn’thelpthinking,whatifthatfigurereallyisindicativeofwhat’soutahead?Whatarewegoingtodoaboutit?”Henkel,squaringuptowhathedetected,forecastzerogrowthinEuropeduringthethirdquarter,thoughanalyststhoughthewas“nuts.”Hisforecastwaswrong:growthfellby15percent.YetIngersollRandgotaheadofthecurvebyquicklyputtingcontingencyplansinplace,restructuring,andrunningdowninventory.“Ofcourse,westillhadtogobackanddomore.Butbynotignoringthatoneindicator,wedidgetaheadstart,”hereflects.Gettingaheadofthecurvemeanstakingahardlookatwhatthefuturemighthold,andthatrequiresadegreeofcourage.ThepointmadebyHenkelandothersishowdifficultitcanbeforleaderstotakeaction—andtopersuadeotherstofollowtheirlead—ifabusinessseemstobethriving.3Eightyearsago,whenMichaelJacksonarrivedatAutoNation,forexample,theautoindustrywassellingasmanyas17millionunitsayear,butitshighfixedcostsmadehimfearwhatwouldhappeniftheeconomicenvironmentchanged.Athisfirstmanagementmeeting,hethereforeannouncedhisdesiretofindabusinessmodelthatwouldletAutoNationbreakeveniftheautoindustrysoldonly10millionunits.HealsowantedWho’swhoTitleExecutiveChairmanandCEOSchaffhausen,SwitzerlandHeadquartersEdwardBreenSt.Paul,MinnesotaGeorgeBuckleyChairmanandCEOChairman,president,andCEOChairman,president,andCEOPresident,director,andCEODublin,OhioR.KerryClarkChairmanandCEONewYork,NewYorkJayFishmanChairmanandCEOSomers,NewYorkEricFossDublin,IrelandHerbertHenkelNorthRichlandHills,TexasPhillipHildebrandChairmanandCEOFortLauderdale,FloridaMichaelJacksonChairmanCincinnati,OhioA.G.LafleyChairman,president,andCEOCompanyTycoInternational3MCardinalHealthTravelersPepsiBottlingGroupIngersollRandHealthMarketsAutoNationP&GMacy’sCincinnati,OhioTerryLundgrenExecutivechairmanTroy,MichiganRobertS.“Steve”MillerChairman,president,andCEODayton,OhioWilliamNutiChairmanandCEODelphiNCRSyscoHouston,TexasRichardSchneidersChairmanandCEO2008Revenue($bil.)20.291.125.323.813.813.21.5(2007est.)14.183.524.918.15.337.533.92008Employees113,00047,60079,20033,00066,80060,0002,000(2007est.)20,000138,000167,000146,60022,40050,000123,600BusinessIndustrialconglomerateIndustrialconglomerateHealthcaredistributorPropertyandcasualtyinsuranceSoftdrinksIndustrialmachineryLifeandhealthinsuranceAutomotiveretailingHouseholdproductsDepartmentstoresAutopartsandequipmentElectronicequipmentFooddistributorsShipbuildingandmilitarycontractingNorthropGrummanLosAngeles,CaliforniaRonaldSugar4tounderstandwhatwouldhavetohappenforsalestotakesuchanosediveandhowthebusinesswouldneedtoberemodeledtosurvive.“EverybodylookedatmelikeIhadsixheads,”herecalls.“Eventually,wecametotheconclusionthat,amongotherthings,itwouldtakeacreditcrisistogetvolumesthatlow,becauseinourbusiness,nothingmoveswithoutcredit.Sowegotoutofthefinanceandleasingbusiness,”saysJackson.“Withoutthelimitationonriskweputinplace,wewouldbeindeep,serioustroubleatthemoment.”CEOsalsoneedcouragetomakeharddecisionsquickly.PhilHildebrand,ofHealthMarkets,andSteveMiller,ofDelphi,bothremarkedontheimportanceofdecisivenesstopreventproblemsfromescalating.Butitcanbehardtoachieveintheabsenceofperfectdata.“AlotofCEOsareslowtoreact,andtheirproblemsgetawayfromthem,”saysEdwardBreen,ofTycoInternational.“Youhavetogetasmuchdataasquicklyaspossible.Butyouwillnevergetallofit—soyouneedtomakedecisionsqu