AHP决策模型在怒江流域水电能源开发评价中的应用研究

15420078ChineseJournalofManagementScienceVol.15,No.4Aug.,2007:1003-207(2007)04-0124-06AHP决策模型在怒江流域水电能源开发评价中的应用研究张宇,于渤(哈尔滨工业大学,黑龙江省哈尔滨150001):AHP,,,AHP,,,,AHP:AHP;;:TV7:A:2006-10-30;:2007-07-15:(1967),(),,,,,:.1,[1,2],,[3,4],[5],,AHP,[6,7],[8],,AHPFuzzy[9],,AHP,,,,AHP2t(t=1,T),Pi(i=1,m),,Dj(j=1,n)[10],tn,mm,tn:Ct=(C1t,C2t,,Ctn)=c11tcC12tc1ntc21tc22tc2ntcm1tcm2tcmntm!n(1),Cjt=(c1jt,c2jt,,cmjt)∀tjjCj=(Cj1,Cj2,,CjT)=c1j1c1j2c1jTc2j1c2j2c2jTcmj1cmj2cmjTm!T(2),:#∃()#∃()#∃()#∃(),[11],Cj,Dj,,:,Dijt=maxjmaxtcijt-cijtmaxjmaxtcijt-minjmintcijti=1,2,n(3),Dijt=cijt-minjmintcijtmaxjmaxtcijt-minjmintcijti=1,2,n(4),#∃,Dt=(D1t,D2t,,Dnt)=D11tD12tD1ntD21tD22tD2ntDm1tDm2tDmntm!n(5),Djt=(K1jt,D2jt,,Dmjt)∀tjn,[12,13],,,tWt=(w1t,w2t,,wmt)∀,0wit1,%mi=1wit=1(6)=(1,2,,T)∀0t1,%mt=1t=1(7):Vt=D∀t&Wt=(v1t,v2t,,vnt)∀,tn,:U=(V1,V2,VT)n!T,n:=U&(1,2,,n)∀3AHP31,,,,[14-16],n,D={X1,X2,Xn},XjM=M1+M2+M3,M1,M2,M3,,,,,,[17,18],,AHP32,:,[19],,,:(1),y(t)=f(x(t))=k1+a&e-x(t)(8),x(t),,;k();,;a,,a,(2),,&125&4:AHP,:y(t)=f(x(t))=ax(t)(9)33,,,,[20,21]t,nKitAit=(aikjt)n!n,:aikjt=fi(xk(t))fi(xj(t))i,k,j=1,2,,n(10),aikjt0,aikjt&aijkt=1(k∋j)aikjt=1(k=j),Ait=(aikjt)n!n,,,,[22,23]4412003814,()3,,,16,23,,,,2132,,,42AHP,AHP,,()[24],11123456789/022196765184516291300959366160018687871194279364525435372/&(kw)-1020468543934565395833343661523836454354/108kw&h02217871897100911890612747653752(&-1)0201101097209060831066206891240680837(108m3)016366231771949044108144630035043(/kw!10-4)02086547212546345722122162522831882247(/kw!10-4)0801112591533132211475246791060359914/a031101076565775367558575032522222502037522123002&126&2007,()[1,10],,,,,,Wt=(054,035,011)∀([5]),:D=00076406579085710853006793063931095560290404438035350672310828300836704643094001051240606304558065790025320243802405046370577907076109533009689069721086760053200120002950126400009600117100564103278065070663506323073630583809782048320751607608094070838510007111105261044710447106445003017032861004040404041004104040204060004(8)(9)(10),:A11000010794093072356323467197251895227183260020926410000188721830217411827417558251832409005179055911000012204121541021609816140791346804244045810819410000995908371080431153611035042610460008228100411000008405080761158411080050700547209788119461189710000096081378113182052770569610188124331238310408100001434313720036790397107103086680863307256069721000009566038640415107425090620902507586072881045410000:d1(01968,01823,01019,00835,00839,00998,01038,00724,007575)∀,,:B1=(d1,d2,d3,d4,d5)=01968013680069601542004870182301173006550123300556010190128401067011000125500835009340097100966013070083900673011290721012850099800799009220075601166010380182901781019610132300724007920138300744013140075701149013960097601308,:&127&4:AHPV1=B1&W1=019680136800696015420048701823011730065501233005560101901284010670110001255008350093400971009660130700839006730112900721012850099800799009220075601166010380182901781019610132300724007920138300744013140075701149013960097601308&0220202202016=01246011150113700987009170920015900098101108,W1,V2=B2&W2,V3=B3&W3:V=(V1,V2,V3)&Wt=012460120600882011150127901184011370088500975009870112101697009170158500928009200137401875015900011100129009810145800982011080098201336&054035011:V=(01187,01175,01026,01107,01167,01179,00907,01144,01084):1625849371,:,AHP,,5,,,,,AHP(AHP),,,,,,,:[1],.,.[M].,,2002,(7):1213.[2],,,.[J].,2002,(9):12-15.[3]Horwood,R.,ThePathwayToSustainableResourceManagement[J].ProcessSafetyAndEnvironmentalProtection,November2005,83(6):504508.[4]Doukas,Haris.RenewableEnergySourcesandRationaleUseofEnergyDevelopmentInTheCountries[J].RenewableEnergy,May2006,31(6):755770.[5]Smit,B.etal.MethodsForCumulativeEffectsAssessment[J].EnvironmentalImpactAssessmentReview,2006,14(1):80104.[6]Krewitt,Wolfram,Nitsch,Joachim,FischedickandManfred.MarketPerspectivesOfStationaryFuelCellsInASustainableEnergySupplySystem-LongTermScenariosForGermany[J].EnergyPolicy,May2006,&128&200734(7):793803.[7]Kaya,Durmus.RenewableEnergyPoliciesInTurkey[J].RenewableAndSustainableEnergyReviews,April,2006,10(2):152163.[8],.[J].,2006,(4):97-99.[9].AHP[J].,2001,(2):89-91.[10].[D].,2001:8385.[11],,.[J].,2003,22(3):227-231.[12],,.AHP[J].,2006,(2):14-16.[13],,.[J].:,2006,(1):13-16.[14]Solomon,BarryD.,Banerjee,AGlobalSurveyOfHydrogenEnergyResearch.DevelopmentAndPolicy[J].EnergyPolicy,May2006,34(7):781792.[15]Altinbilek,Dogan.Hydropower'sRoleInDeliveringSustainability,EnergyAndEnvironment[J].SelectionofPapersFromtheWorldEnergyCouncil19thCongress,2005:815824.[16]Jefferson,Michael.SustainableEnergyDevelopment:PerformanceAndProspects[J].RenewableEnergy,April2006,31(5):571582.[17],.AHP[J].,2003,23(12):116-120.[18],,.[J].,2002,18(3):192-196.[19],.[J].,2004,24(12):72-77.[20],,,.AHP[J].:,2004,27(4):433-437.[21],,.AHP[J].,2006,(11):68-70.[22],,,.[J].,2004,12(10):500-503.[23],,.[J].,2004,12():17-19.[24].[M].2006.ResearchofAHPDynamicDecisionTheoryonHydropowerDevelopmentinNujiangRiverAreaZHANGYu,YUBo(1.SchoolofManagement,HarbinInstituteofTechnology,Harbin150001,China)Abstract:BasedonthetheoriesofmultiobjectivedecisionandAH