CHEN对外合作能源基金会交通项目基础数据机动车统...

1InternationalTrendsinEnvironmentalRegulationsforVehiclesSantiago,ChileMay13,2008MichaelP.WalshInternationalConsultantChairman,BoardofDirectors,InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationMajorGlobalTrends•EnvironmentalConcernsIncreasing–Particles–GlobalWarming•CleanerandCleanerTechnologiesEnteringMarketplace–HeavyDutyDieselVehicles–PassengerCars–Motorcycles•CleanerFuelsIncreasinglyCritical–SulfurLevelsApproachingZero–LeadAlmostGone;MMTIncreasingConcern19301940195019601970198019902000CalendarYear020040060080010001200MillionsMotorcyclesCommercialVehiclesCarsWorldMotorVehiclePopulationGrowthofVehiclePopulationinShanghai,1988-20024E:\ChanghongCHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xlsMostVehiclesAreInCities5OneResult:SeriousHealthConcerns•WHOConcludes~800,000PrematureDeathsEachYearFromUrbanPM•NumerousStudiesConsistentlyLinkPMWithPrematureDeaths,HospitalAdmissions,AsthmaAttacks,Etc.•NoEvidenceofaThreshold•Ozone,NO2,VariousToxicsAlsoSeriousHealthConcernsSlide6Source:Cohenetal,2005PM10inMajorcities9%-8%24%-4%-17%EnergyIndustriesManufacturingIndustriesandConstructionTransportationOtherSectorsFugitiveEmissions-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Change1990-2004(%)Annex1PartyGreenhouseGasEmissionsintheEnergySector•EnergyDemandintheTransportSector:AnnualAverageGrowthRate(%)byRegion2004-2030In2004,94%oftransportenergybasedonfossiloil.Thesharewillonlyslightlydecreaseto93%in2030.Source:IEAWEO20060123456Growth(%p.a.)BackgroundCarbonDioxideisNotTheWholeStory!Transportationsectorpriorities1064435534465~60442030mitigationpotential2030BAUemissionsIndustryBuildingsTransportForestryAgriculture/waste/otherPowerTargetUnknownmitigation“Known”mitigation~25303keyinterventions•Fuel-efficient,lowEmittingcars•Low-carbonfuels•Reducedvehicle-milestraveledthroughcongestionpricing,BusRapidTransit,etc.Slide11202530354045505520022004200620082010201220142016201820202022MILESPERGALLON(AllcountriesconvertedtoCAFEtestUNITEDSTATESEUROPEJAPANAUSTRALIACANADACHINACALIFORNIAS.KOREAJAPANUNITEDSTATESEUROPEANUNIONCHINAAUSTRALIACANADAS.KOREACALIFORNIA+16STATESDottedline:ProposedorcontestedSolidlines:EnactedSource:PassengerVehicleGreenhouseGasandFuelEconomyStandards:AGlobalUpdate,InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation,2007StandardizedComparisonofInternationalFuelEconomyandGHGStandards1973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009012345Grams/KilometerNOxEmissionsStandardsUSGasolineUSDieselEUGasolineEUDieselEUandUSPassengerCarExhaustEmissionsStandardsTechnologyCapableofCleaningVehicleEmissionsHasImprovedDramaticallyinthePast30-40YearsTheThree-wayCatalyticConverter:AFamiliarTechnologyRe-EngineeredforHighPerformanceinClose-coupledandUnderfloorApplications•Layeredwashcoatarchitecturesandsupportmaterialswithhighthermalstability•IntegratedHCadsorptionfunctions•Mountingmaterialswithimproveddurability•Highcelldensityceramicormetallicsubstrates•InsulationschemesforheatmanagementMaximumEmissionsPerformanceIsOnlyAchievedWithNearZeroSulfurFuelDieselParticulateFiltersTrappedPMCellPlugsExhaust(PM,CO,HC)EnterCeramicHoneycombWallExhaust(CO2,H2O)OutIssuestobalance:•sulfateformation•regenerationandbackpressure•FuelEconomyReductions:•-80to95%PM•-80-100%HC,CO•-80%+toxinsHowTheTrapFunctionsTypicalengineexhaustmassandnumberweightedsizedistributionsshownwithalveolardeposition00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.180.20.0010.0100.1001.00010.000Diameter(m)NormalizedConcentration,dC/Ctotal/dlogDp00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91AlveolarDepositionFractionMassWeightingNumberWeightingAlveolarDepositionFractionFineParticlesDp2.5mUltrafineParticlesDp100nmNanoparticlesDp50nmNucleiModeAccumulationModeCoarseModePM10Dp10mFractionaldepositionofparticlewithdensityof1g/umfromnongrey..GasolineandLPGG-DIConventionalDieselComparisonofParticleEmissionsfromSMPS.7:AllVehiclesandFuels-50kph1.00E+061.00E+071.00E+081.00E+091.00E+101.00E+111.00E+121.00E+131101001000ElectricalMobilityDiameter/nmlogscale[Particles/km]ConventionalDieselsDirectInjectionGasolineTrapEquippedDieselsMPIandLPGGasoline18CurrentDPFApplicationsMillionsofcarsareequippedwithDPFaroundworldAirTankUreaTankCatalystInputTemperatureCatalystOutputTemperatureEngineSCRConnectorECMDosingUnitJ1939(Public)AirSolenoidUreaSensorSCRControlExhaustGasProcessorSCRSolutionSystemArchitecture20EmissionscontrolsystemforEuroVIOxidationcatalyst(DOC),catalyst-basedparticulatefilterandurea-SCRwithammoniaslipcatalyst(ASC).MixerSCR+ASCDOC(optional)NOxsensorNOxsensorCalifornia’sZEVHistory010000020000030000040000050000060000019901998199920012002200320042005ATPZEVsPZEVsZEVRegulationPZEVscreatedCaFCPStartedATPZEVsCreatedZEVRegImplementationFCBuseson-roadZEV-StatusGoals:–DrivedevelopmentofZEVs–SupportsbridgingtechnologieslikeHybrids–MaximizesairqualitybenefitswithPZEVsStatus–PZEVsmarketedbyallautomakerssubjecttotheregulation,425,000PZEVssoldtodate–Hybridsverysuccessfulinthemarketplace,70,000ATPZEVhybridssoldtodate–100FuelcellvehiclesbeingplacedinCaliforniainrealworlddemonstrationfleetsHondaCivicHybridATPZEVNear-ZeroEmissionVehiclesLifetimeemissions(VOC+NOx)PartialZeroEmissionsVeh