科尔尼全球零售发展指数报告(1)

2003GlobalRetailDevelopmentIndexEmergingMarketforSources:A.T.Kearneyanalysis;Euromoneydatabase;WorldBankReportsOntheradarscreenCountryRankGeographicarea1.Countryrisk2.ModernretailareaperinhabitantCurrentmarketsaturation3.Numberofinternationalretailersinthecountry4.TimepressureGradeRussiaSlovakRepublicChinaHungaryIndiaTurkeyMoroccoEgyptVietnamTunisiaSouthKoreaChileBulgariaSloveniaPhilippinesMalaysiaRomaniaThailandLatviaUkraineSouthAfricaCzechRepublicMexicoTaiwanVenezuelaIndonesiaHongKongPolandIsraelColombia1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12.13.14.15.16.17.18.19.20.21.22.23.24.25.26.27.28.29.30.WeightEasternEuropeEasternEuropeAsiaEasternEuropeAsiaMediterraneanMediterraneanMediterraneanAsiaMediterraneanAsiaAmericasEasternEuropeEasternEuropeAsiaAsiaEasternEuropeAsiaEasternEuropeEasternEuropeAfricaEasternEuropeAmericasAsiaAmericasAsiaAsiaEasternEuropeMediterraneanAmericas40%51596771484455524954675648745261465961345567616236387865613420%958073691007298989985447362203260738450987947837478925178128220%7659415394768888828859947682765959358294822953478871410948220%871008669348618241713541054347342594729226661315181853994100%727167676564636359595858585757575756565655555452515150494847Toconsider0=highrisk100=lowrisk0=saturated100=notsaturated0=saturated100=notsaturated0=notimepressure100=urgencytogoToavoidLegendKeyFigure1:A.T.KearneyGlobalRetailDevelopmentIndex,2003IntroductionSaturatedhomemarkets,fiercecompetitionandrestrictivelegislationhaverelentlesslypushedmajorfoodretailersintoglobalizationmode.In2003,thetop30foodretailershadextendedtheirempiresinto85differentcountries—severaltimesthe15countrieswheretheyhadapresenceadecadeearlier.Butglobalexpansiondoesnotguaranteeaneasyharvest.Twooutofthreeretailersfailtomeettheirinitialfinancialtargetswhentheyenterdevelopingcountries.Despitethechallenges,goingglobalisanessentialelementoftopretailers’growthstrategies.Tohelpretailersmaximizetheirreturnoninternationalexpansion,A.T.Kearneyhasconductedresearchonwhichemergingcountriesrepresentthebestopportunitiesandwhatactionsfostersuccess.Thefindingsrevealthatalthoughretailersrightlyfocusonstoreformatandmethodofentrywhentheycreateexpansionplans,theyoftenneglecttwoequallyimportantfactors:timingandflexibility.Toaddressthetimingofinternationalexpansion,A.T.KearneydevelopedtheGlobalRetailDevelopmentIndexTM(GRDI),whichranksemergingcountriesbasedoneconomicandpoliticalrisk,thelevelofretailsaturation,andthedifferencebetweengrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthandretailgrowth(seesidebar:TheGRDIMethodology).In2002,theGRDIhighlightedChinaastheopportunityoftheyear.EightretailershavesettledinChinasincethen—makingthecountryaslightlylessattractivetargetduetoincreasedcompetition.For2003,Russiawonthehighestmarks(seefigure1).Butemergingcountriesturnintomaturemarketsrapidly.ConsiderPoland,aretailer’sElDoradojustfiveyearsago,whichisnowcrowded,withmorethan17internationalretailers.RetailersintheUnitedStatesseempoisedtoexpandmoreaggressively,butoverall,thisyearshowsamarkedpauseinmanyretailers’racetoglobalization.Althoughtheyentered19newcountrieslastyear,thefigurethisyearisestimatedat12.ItseemsU.S.retailersaremoreintentonreinforcingtheirexistingbases.They’llneedto;localretailersarecounteringtheforeignonslaughtbyformingtheirownstrongconglomeratessuchastheBailianGroupinChina,theSixSevensallianceinRussiaandtheAlmacenesExitoandCadenalcomergerinColumbia.Whatarethesecretstosuccess?There’snosingleformula—nobesttypeofstore,nobestownershipstructure(seesidebar:WhatDoTheyThink?).Theretailerspoisedforgrowthwillbethosethatlooktotheleadersininternationalexpansion,usetimeasacriticalstrategiccomponent,anddemonstrateflexibilityduringimplementation.EmergingMarketPrioritiesforFoodRetailers..Retailersrankflexibilityandtimingasthetwoleastimportantfactorsinsuccessfulglobalexpansion.Ouranalysis,however,revealsadif-ferentanswer.Indeed,wefoundthatflexibilityintheimplementationprocessiskeytoselectingthestoreformatandentrymodelthatbestfitsbothinternalstrategiesandexternalcircum-stances.Thesupermarketformatdominatesemergingmarketstoday,with56percentofcompaniesonaveragetakingthisapproach.Thehypermarketformatisthefastestgrowingintermsofnumberofstores(63percentCAGRfrom1997to2002).Yetouranalysisshowsnocorrelationbetweenonetypeofformatandinternationalsuccess(definedaspercentofsalesgrowthoutsidehomemarketCAGR2000to2002).Werecommendthatcompaniesenterwithtwoformatsatthesametimeandmonitorthemarket,whichaffordsthemtheflexibilitytoemphasizeoneformatifitshowsearlysignsofsuccess.Forexample,successfulglobalretailersoftenenterwithoneofthefollowingcombinations:hypermarketanddiscount;hypermarketandTheGRDIMethodologyTheA.T.KearneyGlobalRetailDevelopmentIndexranks30emerg-ingcountriesona100-pointscale.Thehighertheranking,themoreurgentitistoenteracountry.Thescoresarebasedonthefollowingvariables:•Economicandpoliticalrisk(40percent):BasedontheEuromoneydatabase,thisvariableisbrokendownasfollows:politicalrisk(25percent),economicperformance(25percent),debtindicators