HSBC-全球环境保护与新能源的投资08年（PDF 102页）

ByNickRobins,CharanjitSingh,RoshanPadamadanandRobertClover*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoNYSEand/orNASDregulations.GatheringmomentumClimate-changeinvestingmovesintothenextphaseSeptember2008Climate-relatedinvestmentpotentialisbroaderanddeeperthanexpectedevenayearago.Thepositivescientific,businessandpolicymomentumof2007,however,isnowexposedtotherealpolitikofnegotiationsandmacroeconomicshocks.WeexaminethedriversofandprospectsfortheunderlyingthemesoftheHSBCClimateChangefamilyofindices.RoshanPadamadan*,[e-mail]theHSBCGroupin2006andiscurrentlyworkingwiththeClimateChangeCentreofExcellence,havinghadpreviousexperienceincreditrisk,businessanalysisandprojectmanagement.HeholdsaBachelor’sdegreeinindustrialengineeringandanMBA.NickRobins*[e-mail],headoftheHSBCClimateChangeCentreofExcellence,joinedthebankin2007.Hehasextensiveexperienceinthepolicy,businessandinvestmentdimensionsofclimatechangeandsustainabledevelopment.CharanjitSingh*[e-mail]BCin2006andisapartoftheAlternativeEnergyteamandClimateChangeCentreofExcellence.Hehasbeenworkingasafinancialandpolicyanalystsince2000andalsohasfouryearsofexperienceinprojectmanagementandappraisal.CharanjitholdsaBachelor’sdegreeinengineeringandaMaster'sdegreeinmanagement.September2008GatheringmomentumClimatechangeDisclosuresandDisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitRobertClover*[e-mail]alHeadofAlternativeEnergyResearchintheGlobalResourcesTeam.HejoinedHSBCin2004.HeisACCAqualifiedandhasbeenaninvestmentanalystsince1995.ClimatechangeAlternativeenergy18September20081abcThisreportpresentsthefindingsofareviewintotheinvestablethemesthatmakeupthefamilyofHSBCClimateChangeIndices.Theindicescomprisethoseglobalequitieswheretheprovisionofsolutionstoclimatechangeisamaterialpartofcorporaterevenues.PreparedbytheHSBCClimateChangeCentreofExcellence,theaimofthereviewwastoevaluatehowtheprospectsoftheindexthemeshadchangedoneyearonfromitslaunchinSeptember2007.Ouranalysislooksintotheevolution,currentshapeandfutureprospectsofthethemes,butdoesnotprovidespecificinvestmentrecommendationsforindividualstocks.ChangingtheoddsThemaingreenhousegas,carbondioxide,staysintheairfor80-120years,linkingthepasttothepresentandthepresenttothefuture.IncreasingconcentrationsofCO2areshiftingtheodds–theoddsofcoldwintersandhotsummers,ofheavyrainfallandsearingdroughts,ofsea-levelriseandhurricanes.Uncertaintyisintrinsicinfutureevents.Sowelookintohowpeoplemakedecisionsunderuncertainconditions.Oneoftheprincipalwaysistotrytoavoidthemaximumregret(accordingtotheminimaxregretfunction).Weconcludethattheworldneedstoact–andactdecisively–toavoidsomeofthelow-probability,butvery-high-impactscenarioswemightfacewithunfetteredcarbonemissions.Andaconsensusisemergingthatthisneedstoinvolveatleastahalvingofglobalgreenhouse-gasemissionsby2050–anOlympian,buttechnologicallyfeasibletaskthatwouldbringsizeableco-benefits,notablyintermsofenhancedenergysecurity.SummaryTheclimatechangeinvestmentagenda,webelieve,hasdeepenedandbroadenedsincethelaunchoftheHSBCClimateChangeIndicesinSeptember2007.Overall,low-carbonsourcesofpowergenerationhavebecomemoreattractive,whilehighfuelcostshaveunderlinedthewin-winrationaleforrampingupenergyefficiency.Climatechangeisalsosettobeamajordriverofadditionalinvestmentinthewatersector.Thecarbonmarketshavedoubledinsize,butremainexposedtopolicyrisk.Thepositivescientific,businessandpolicymomentumbuiltupin2007isnowfacedwiththerealpolitikofnegotiationsandaglobaleconomicslowdown,suggestinganuncertainpathtotheculminationofclimatetalksinCopenhagennextyear.ClimatechangeAlternativeenergy18September20082abcThethemesClimatechangeisaffectinginvestorsinnumerousways,generatinganewgenerationofrisks,aswellaspotentialforbusinessgrowth.TheHSBCClimateChangeIndexfocusesonthepotentialupsideopportunitiesandisstructuredintofourbroadsectors:Howdoweincreasetheproportionoflow-carbonenergy?Howdoweoptimiseenergyusethroughbetterenergyefficiencyandmanagement?Howdowedealwiththeimpactsofclimatechangeandcurbemissionsfromwater,wasteandpollutioncontrol?Andwhatisthescopeforinvestmentopportunitiesinthefieldofclimatefinance?Low-carbonenergyproductionGreenhouse-gasemissionsfrompowergenerationaresettoriseby130%bythemiddleofthecentury,accordingtotheIEA.Butsolutionsexistfordeliveringloworzero-carbonenergy.NuclearenergyNuclearisoneofthecheapestsourcesoflow-carbonbase-loadpower.Aresurgencebeckonsifenvironmental,securityandsafetyconcernscanbeovercome.TheIEAforecaststhatnuclearpower’sshareofglobalelectricitycapacitycouldgrowfrom15%currentlyto23%in2050.RenewablesTomeetlow-carbontargets,theIEAprojectsthatrenewablescouldaccountforasmuchas45%ofelectricitygenerationby2050inalow-carbon