IllusionofEnergyIndependence(生油页岩能源独

Slide1LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarU.S.ShalePlaysOil-ProneShalePlays:TheIllusionofEnergyIndependenceArthurE.BermanLabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarHalliburtonConferenceTheaterOctober19,2012Slide2LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarIknownotanythingmorepleasant,ormoreinstructive,thantocompareexperiencewithexpectation,ortoregisterfromtimetotimethedifferencebetweenideaandreality.Itisbythiskindofobservationthatwegrowdailylessliabletobedisappointed.--SamuelJohnson:LettertoBennetLangtonShaleMagicalThinkingWhatfewpeoplerealize:•Whileoilproductionhasincreased,theU.S.isnotgoingtobecomeenergyindependent.•Resourcesarenotreserves,andreservesarenotsupply.•Shaleoilwellshavehighdeclineratesandrequiresubstantialcapitalexpendituretokeepproductionflatmuchlessincreasing.•OilproductionfromtheEagleFordandBakkenshaleswillprobablyincreaseU.S.supplyby1-2millionbarrelsperdayby2020dependingonoilprice.Slide3LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarTheGoodNewsPropagandaCampaignAboutOilSlide4LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminar•Reservesareaverysmallsub-setofresources.•Reservestakeyearsofdevelopmentdrillingtobecomesupply.•Provedundevelopedreservesmayneverbedeveloped.ModifiedfromMedlock(2010)Slide5LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarAviewfromthebottomoftheresourcepyramid•Unconventionalplaysbecameimportantasbetterplayswereexhausted.•Thereisnotechnologicalrevolution,justimprovementthroughextensive&expensivetrial-and-error.•Shalereservoirswillnotperformaswellasconventionalreservoirs.•Economicsdependonhighoilprices.•Andthedrillingtreadmillneverendsbecauseofhighdeclinerates.•Demanddestructionwilllimitoilpriceand,therefore,thelongendoftheunconventionalproductioncurve.Slide6LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarOilvs.LiquidsCrudeOil•Crudeoil,petroleumproducts&petroleumliquidsarecommonlygroupedtogether.•Theyarenotthesame.•Naturalgasliquidshavelowerheatcontentthanoil,andarenotusedfortransport.NGLsmustbedistilledfromnaturalgas.•Refineryprocessinggainresultsfromrefiningcrudeoilintoproductswithlowerspecificgravity.•Biofuelsarenotmadefrompetroleum&havelowerheatcontent.Slide7LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarU.S.OilProduction•TheU.S.hasbeenanetoilimportingcountrysinceWWII.•CrudeoilproductionintheU.S.peakedin1970at10MMbo/day.•PrudhoeBay—thelargestoilfieldintheU.S.(12.8Mmbotodate)—reverseddeclinefor9years.•Shaleoilhasreverseddeclinefor18months.Slide8LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarU.S.OilProduction•U.S.oilproductionisnowflatat6.3mmbo/day.•U.S.crudeoilconsumptionis15.4mmbo/day.•Thegapbetweenproductionandconsumptionis9mmbo/day.•ItisunlikelythattheU.S.willbecomeenergyindependent.Slide9LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarEagleFordShaleLocationMap•240rigsdrillingintheEagleFord.•HighestrigcountofanyplayintheU.S.DatafromDISlide10LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarEagleFordShaleProduction•Sincetheplaybeganin2008,oilproductionhasincreasedto502,000barrelsofoilperdayand1.9bcfg/d.•Morethan3,092producingwells.•Averagewellis160barrelsofoilperday&0.6mmcfgasperday.Wellcostis$10million.DatafromDI05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,0001/1/20084/1/20087/1/200810/1/20081/1/20094/1/20097/1/200910/1/20091/1/20104/1/20107/1/201010/1/20101/1/20114/1/20117/1/201110/1/20111/1/20124/1/2012MillionsofCubicFeetofGasPerDay&NumberofProducingWellsBarrelsofOilPerDayEagleFordShaleProductionOilProductionGasProductionNumberofWellsSlide11LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminarEagleFordShaleAnnualBaseReplacement•42%annualdeclinerate.•Mustreplace150,000bo/deachyeartomaintainsupply.•Thatmeansapproximately800newproducingwells/yearatacostof~$8billion.•1274wellsbeganproductioninthepast12months($13billion).DatafromDI01002003004005006007008009001000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000Apr-08Jun-08Aug-08Oct-08Dec-08Feb-09Apr-09Jun-09Aug-09Oct-09Dec-09Feb-10Apr-10Jun-10Aug-10Oct-10Dec-10Feb-11Apr-11Jun-11Aug-11Oct-11NumberofProducingWellsBarrelsofOilPerDayEagleFordShaleStaticDeclineProfileOilProductionNumberofProducingWells42%AnnualBaseDeclineRateSlide12LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.HoustonSIPESContinuingEducationSeminar149,785 149,785 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 951 796 Barrels of Oil Per Day Number of Incremental Producing Wells Eagle Ford Shale Annual Base Replacement 1st150kpopd951Wells$9.5billion(11/2010)2012150kbopdBaseReplacement796Wells$7.6billion(1/2012)EagleFordShaleAnnualBaseReplacement•Fewerwellsrequiredtodaytoreplacesamevolumeasin2010—findingthesweetspots.•Operatorsarebecomingmoreefficient.•Morewellswillbeneededtoreplacevolumesinthefuturewhenproductionishigheran