基于EVA模型对我国上市房地产企业价值评估的研究

I基于EVA模型对我国上市房地产企业价值评估的研究——以万科为例华东师范大学王凯【摘要】现今，如何科学合理地评估企业价值，已经成为企业健康发展中的关键环节。根据国内外相关研究经验，收益法中的EVA（EconomicValueAdded，经济增加值）模型逐渐成为企业价值评估的主流方法。本文将采用比较分析、理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法，从EVA的基本理论出发，阐述了EVA的思想来源、含义、计算过程，并根据EVA的计算公式对EVA进行了分解，找出企业价值的驱动因素，并分析了各个指标的计算公式；然后，阐述了房地产行业的重要经济地位、行业特点、行业现状和发展趋势；结合房地产企业的特点；比较了三种常用的企业价值评估方法，包括现金流量折现法、相对价值法和EVA价值评估法，通过比较，得出EVA价值评估法更适合于房地产企业价值评估的结论。接着以万科作为例，分析其基本情况，采用EVA价值评估法对其价值进行评估，在此基础上对价值评估的结果进行评析。最后对EVA价值评估法进行总结。【关键词】房地产企业，价值评估，EVA，万科浙江大学城市学院毕业论文摘要II浙江大学城市学院毕业论文AbstractIIIResearchonValueAssessmentoftheChineseListedRealEstateEnterprisesBasedonEVA——TakeVankeAsAnExample【Abstract】Nowadays,theultimategoalofenterprisefinancialmanagementistomaximizeprofitsforthemaximizationofenterprisevalue,therealestateenterprisesarenoexception.Howtoevaluatetheenterprisevaluescientificallyandreasonably,hasbecomethekeytothehealthydevelopmentofenterprises.Accordingtothedomesticandforeignrelevantresearchexperience,incomemethodintheEVA(EconomicValueAdded,economicvalueadded)modelhasgraduallybecomethemainstreammethodofenterprisevalueassessment.EVAmodelovercomestheshortcomingsoftraditionalevaluationmethods,startingfromtheangleofeconomicprofit,fullyconsidertheequitycapitalanddebtcapital,andeliminatestheinfluenceofthedistortionofaccountinginformationandaccountingstandards,theenterprisedecision-makingandincreaseshareholderwealthcloselytogether,showinganewscientificenterprisevalues.Thispaperwillusethemethodsofcomparativeanalysis,combinationoftheoreticalanalysisandempiricalanalysis,fromthepointofviewofthebasictheoryofEVA,expoundstheEVAorigin,meaningandcalculationprocess,andaccordingtothecalculationformulaofEVAisdecomposedtoEVA,findoutthevaluedrivenfactors,basedontheanalysisofthesensitivityofvariousfactors,putforwardimprovedEVAapproach;then,elaboratedtherealestateindustryisanimportanteconomicstatusandthecharacteristicsoftheindustry,thedevelopmentoftheindustryhistoryanddevelopmentprospects;combinedwiththecharacteristicsoftherealestatebusiness,comparedthreecommonlyusedevaluationmethodsofenterprisevalue,includingdiscountedcashflowmethod,therelativevaluemethodandEVAvaluemethod,throughcomparison.TheEVAevaluationmethodismore浙江大学城市学院毕业论文AbstractIVsuitableforassessingthevalueoftherealestatebusiness.ThentakeVankeasacase,analyzesitscompetitivenessandindustryuseEVAvaluationmethodtoassessitsvalueonthebasisoftheevaluationresultsanalysis,putforwardtoimprovethevaluepropositionofvanke.【KeyWords】Realestateenterprises，ValueAssessment，EVA，Vanke浙江大学城市学院毕业论文目录V目录引言..........................................................................................................................................1一、绪论..................................................................................................................................1（一）选题的背景和意义2（二）国内外研究现状及发展趋势21．国外研究现状及发展趋势................................................................................22．国内研究现状及发展趋势................................................................................3二、EVA模型理论概述.........................................................................................................5（一）EVA价值评估理论51．EVA的含义.......................................................................................................52．EVA的理论基础...............................................................................................5（二）EVA指标的计算71．EVA的计算公式...............................................................................................72．EVA的计算步骤...............................................................................................7三、房地产行业的概况..........................................................................................................8（一）房地产行业的经济地位8（二）房地产行业的特点9（三）房地产行业的现状和发展趋势91．房地产行业的现状............................................................错误!未定义书签。2．房地产行业的发展趋势....................................................错误!未定义书签。四、EVA模型与传统价值评估方法的比较.......................................................................12（一）企业价值评估方法151．相对价值法......................................................................................................152．现金流量折现法..............................................................................................173．EVA模型价值评估法.....................................................................................18（二）EVA价值评估模型的优势20五、案例分析——以万科为例............................................................................................15（一）万科基本情况介绍15（二）采用EVA评估法评估万科公司价值的理由20（三）EVA模型评估万科企业价值...........................................................................201．计算历史EVA...................................................................错误!未定义书签。浙江大学城市学院毕业论文目录VI2．预测未来EVA...................................................................错误!未定义书签。（四）案例结论分析....................................................................................................20结论........................................................................................................................................39参考文献.......................................