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eaders社论Syria'scivilwar叙利亚内战Desperatetimes艰难时刻AconferenceonSyriaisnotenough.TheWestshouldalsoarmtherebels叙利亚问题远非一项会议可以解决，西方国家还应该为反对派提供武装援助NOBODYthinksthattheGenevanegotiations,whichbeganonJanuary22ndaftermonthsofeffort,willbringpeacerightaway.经过数月努力后，日内瓦会议于1月22日召开，没人相信此次调解会立即带来和平。2_副本.jpgButwithcivilwarraginginsideSyria,justgettingpeoplearoundthesametablefeelslikeprogress;and,itisargued,thetalksmightlaythegroundfornegotiationsthatmayonedayleadtoaceasefire,oreventopowerchanginghands.然而，由于叙利亚国内战争甚嚣尘上，单是将双方集结到一张桌子上已属不易。而且，据称，此次对话可能为之后的谈判奠定基础，以实现最终的停火，甚至是权利交接。Meanwhile,theycanbrokerlocaltrucesandgetrelieftoSyriansdyingforlackoffoodandmedicine.同时，这次的对话还可以调解地方冲突以求和平，为缺少食物和药物的叙利亚人送去援助。AnythingthatwouldalleviateSyria'splightiswelcome.任何有助于缓解叙利亚困境的行动都是受欢迎的。ButifAmericaandEuropeareseriousabouthelpingSyria,theyshouldarmtherebelsfightingtheregime.但是，如果美国和欧洲国家真相帮助叙利亚，他们应该武装反对派，打击政权。Out-thinking,out-manoeuvring,inhuman先发制人，惨无人道Thatisamessagepeopledonotwanttohear.世人并不想听到这样的消息。Thenagain,neitherdotheywanttofaceuptothebrutalityinsideBasharAssad'sprisons.同样，他们也不忍直视巴萨尔阿萨德监狱里的残暴。Thisisnotcasualthuggerybut,asasecurityofficialwhodefectedfromtheregimewiththousandsofhorrificphotographshasrevealed,anauditedpolicyofofficialterroradministeredonanindustrialscale.这并非一般的暗杀，而是一名安保人员，背叛组织后惨遭杀害，几千张惊恐的图片披露了这一行径，一项官方恐怖的审计政策以工业规模展开。TheviolenceMrAssadhasusedhasdrivenreasonandtoleranceoutofwhatwasoneoftheMiddleEast'smostintegratedcountries.总统阿萨德的暴行使原本团结的中东国家失去了理性和包容。Wellover100,000peoplehavediedandmillionshavefledtheirhomes.10万多人丧生，数百万人流离失所。ThehatredisspreadingtoLebanonandIraq.仇恨正向蔓延黎巴嫩和伊拉克。TheGenevagatheringcannotdrainsuchanoceanofsufferingandwrongdoing.ItisbuiltonthepremisethatMrAssadwillrelinquishpowerthroughatransitionalgovernment.日内瓦会议无法化解这无边的苦海和冤屈，除非总统阿萨德能够放弃权力，组件临时政府。Butwhyshouldhe?但是，他这么做理由何在呢？Hebelievesheiswinning.Heisholdinghisownagainstrebelattacks,orevengainingterritory.他认为他正在获得胜利。他正在尽全力对抗反对派，甚至扩张领土。Theprogrammetoeliminatehischemicalarsenal,imposedafterhemurderedabout1,000civiliansinanerve-agentattack,hasturnedhimintoapartneroftheWest.在他屠杀了1000多手无寸铁的平民后，联合国决议决定销毁他的化学武器，但这却使他成为西方国家的一员。Hesetouttoradicalisetherebels,releasingjihadistsfromhisjailsearlyintheconflict.他决意激怒反对派，在冲突开始早些时候释放了圣战者。ThisprogrammehasbeensosuccessfulthatWesternvotersnowthinktherebelsareasvileasMrAssad.这一激将法十分奏效，西方国家目前认为反对派同阿萨德一样邪恶。Genevacouldevengetinthewayofpeace.可以说，日内瓦会议妨碍了和平进程。ThehumanitarianaidthatmaycomefromthetalksisdesperatelyneededbySyrians,butitcomesatacost,becauseUNaidagencieswill,again,dependonMrAssadforco-operation.叙利亚人亟需和谈中可能达成的人道援助，但是这些援助却不是免费的午餐，因为联合国援助机构会再次依靠阿萨德的合作。PeaceisalmostimpossibleunlessIran,MrAssad'sbiggestbacker,alsoleansontheregime.除非伊朗—阿萨德最大的支持者，也支持这一政权，否则，叙利亚和平只能是泡影。YetIranwasbarredfromtheconferenceonlyhoursafterhavingbeeninvited,becauseitwillnotsignuptotheconditionthathesurrenderspower.然而，伊朗在接受邀请数小时后就被拒绝参加会议，因为该国不同意阿萨德交出政权。Tocynics,GenevaisadevicethatletseveryonepretendtohaveaSyriapolicyevenwhentheydon't.对批评人士来说，日内瓦会议只是权宜之计，让所有人误以为叙利亚问题有方法解决，实则是无计可施。Thatmaybedeftdiplomacy,butitisalicenceforinaction,andthepriceiscountedinSyriansuffering.于外交来说，这一招妙不可言，但却使不作为获得了许可，而且代价在叙利亚伤亡中显而易见。Astalksdragon,RussiaandIranwillcontinuetoboostMrAssad'sstrength.由于谈判一再拖延，俄罗斯和伊朗将继续为阿萨德提供援助。Itwouldbewrongtoletthebalancetiltsofarthathecandictateterms.力量失衡如此严重，让阿萨德可以为所欲为，实属下策。ThebestwaytobreakthedeadlockwouldbefortheWesttoarmandtrainselectedrebels,asitshouldhavedonealmostfromthestartoftheviolence.打破僵局的最好办法是西方武装和训练精挑细选的反对派，战争开始之初就应该这样做。Manyfearthatthebeneficiaryofmoney,equipmentandarmswouldbeal-Qaeda,whichmatchesonlyMrAssadinitscontemptforhumanlifeandWesterndemocracy.许多人担心钱财、设备和武器最后会落到基地组织手里，他们残害生命和打击西方政策的行径与阿萨德不相上下。Butoverthepastfewweeksthatriskhasdiminished,asnationalistSunnigroups,includingdevoutIslamists,haveturnedagainsttheIslamicStateofIraqandal-Sham,anal-Qaedaaffiliate.但是，在过去的几个星期里，风险已经降低，因为民族主义者逊尼派，包括虔诚的伊斯兰教徒，已与伊斯兰教国家伊拉克和ISIS反目，后者是基地组织的一个分支。Notonlyarearmsandmoneylesslikelytoendupinthewronghands,butthenicerrebels—eveniftheyarenotthemostreliableorsavouryallies—arethefrontlineagainstISIS,whosesectarianpoisonthreatenstheentireregion.不仅武器和钱不太可能落入贼手，稍显仁慈的反对派—即使他们不是最可靠、最适合的同盟者，却在前线对抗ISIS，其派别纷争威胁着整个地区。Evenwithmoreoutsidehelp,therebelsarenotabouttodefeatMrAssad.即使外援增加，反对派也无意于扳倒阿萨德。Butturningthetideofthefightingmightshiftthenegotiations,too.然而，转移斗争的矛头可能会影响谈判。Iftheregimeisunderpressureonthebattlefield,itmaybemorewillingtonegotiateaproperceasefire,oreven,ifpeoplearetiredofwar,MrAssad'sdeparture.如果政权在战场上饱受压力，阿萨德可能更乐意协议停火，或者，人们厌倦了战争，阿萨德会选择放弃。MoreoverIrancanillaffordtofinanceastalemate.而且，如果伊朗意图不轨，大可继续为其提供援助，维持僵局。WhenithashadenoughofpouringmoneyintoMrAssad'sseeminglyendlessconflict,itmaybewillingtoargueforpeace.待到有足够的金钱支持阿萨德似乎无休止的战争时，伊朗可能会求和。Somesaythatifoutsiderscontinuetohelptherebels,theywillcondemnSyriatoevenmoresuffering.有人认为，如果外界继续帮助反对派，可能会使叙利亚的苦难更加深重。Thatispossible.这一点并非不可能。ButthebrutalityMrAssadhaspractisedagainsthisownpeoplestrengthensthecasefortryingtotipthebalanceofpoweragainsthim,andthebestwaytopersuadehisbackerstowithdrawtheiraidisiftheWesthasmoneyonthetable