中国不可再生能源消耗效率的关键影响因素研究

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ContemporaryFinance&Economics20121326CONTEMPORARYFINANCE&ECONOMICSNO.12012SerialNO.326—————————————————2011-09-20“”70103016。、、。。GDP。、、。、、、“”。、、。Fankhauser2004116023。、、。C2B-DEA、DEA1990-2009、、、。、、。。C2B-DEADEAF416.2A1005-0892(2012)01-0025-0825ContemporaryFinance&Economics。[1]EliasVictor2005。[2]2002、。[3]20071995-2004GDP、、。[4]20081998-200430、、、。[5]、2007。[6]Fisher-Vanden20042500、、。[7]20051%0.33%。[8]、2010。[9]2010R&D。[10]。DEA1990-2009。、。、DEASFADEASFA。[11]DEA。DEA“”Charnes、CooperRhodes1978Far-rell(DMU)。[12]DEAC2R-DEA、C2B-DEADEA。C2B-DEA1DEA。AndersonPeterson1993DEA2012132626ContemporaryFinance&EconomicsDEA。[13]nDMUj(j=1,2,…,n)pxpqyqjDMUj1xj=(x1j,x2j,…,xpj)T0yj=(y1j,y2j,…,yqj)T01j0DMU0DEAnDMU“”C2B-DEA、S-DEA2S-DEA3θηDMU0s-i、s+rpq。minθs.t.nj=1Σλjxj+s-i=θx0,i=1,2,…,pnj=1Σλjyj-s+r=y0,r=1,2,…,qnj=1Σλj=1,λj≥0s-i≥0s+r≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥02minηs.t.nj=1Σλjxj+s-i=θx0,i=1,2,…,pnj=1Σλjyj-s+r=y0,r=1,2,…,qλj≥0,j=1,2,…,ns-i≥0s+r≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥≥03——、、。、。、、COD、、、、。1.、、2.+/23.1990-20094.19855.、、COD、、、。。-topsis“”[14]。27ContemporaryFinance&EconomicsC2B-DEADEADEAP2.1EMS1.31990-2009、、。11990-1998、1990、19931995-1998。1994-1998。212000-2002“”、“”、。2003GDP。2005、20065%。2007-200920%“”、。11990-200919901.0001.0001.0001.16120001.0001.0001.0001.01319910.9941.0000.9940.99420011.0001.0001.0001.02519920.9891.0000.9890.98920021.0001.0001.0001.03819931.0001.0001.0001.06720030.9930.9950.9980.99319940.9800.9820.9980.98020041.0001.0001.0001.03019950.9460.9610.9840.94620050.9840.9890.9950.98419960.9630.9700.9920.96320060.9850.9900.9940.98519970.9950.9990.9970.99520071.0001.0001.0001.00619980.9720.9790.9930.97220081.0001.0001.0001.03519991.0001.0001.0001.00520091.0001.0001.0001.420、、。。。、2012132628ContemporaryFinance&EconomicsIS、IL、OI、TD、CP、UL、CI、EPOS9。10、、、、9、、、。1.→→。2.→→GDP。3.→→、。4.→→。5.→→。TE=C+鄣1IS+鄣2OI+鄣3UL+鄣4TD+鄣5CP+ε4C鄣1、鄣2、鄣3、鄣4、鄣5IS、OIGDP、UL、TDGDP、CPε。Eviews6.02。、、、、0.05t0.893748、DW2.039705。1、。29ContemporaryFinance&Economics2tPIS-3.1198991.121033-2.7830560.0147OI-0.9207860.125804-7.3191820.0000UL-2.0808910.715543-2.9081260.0115TD1.0033120.1417647.0773580.0000CP-2.0632140.957485-2.1548260.0491C3.9691511.0924873.6331330.0027R20.921709Meandependentvar1.030050R20.893748S.D.dependentvar0.1024320.033389Akaikeinfocriterion-3.7178490.015608Schwarzcriterion-3.41912943.17849Hannan-Quinncriter.-3.659536Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Durbin-Watsonstat2.039705GDP2、、。。。。3。80%。、、。。4。。。5。、。、C2B-DEA、DEA2012132630ContemporaryFinance&Economics1990-2009、。。。、、。1990-2009“————”。、、。。。。、、“、、”。。、。。。、。。、。、。、。———————————————[1]CornillieJ,FankhauserS.TheEnergyIntensityofTransitionCountries[J].EnergyEconomics,2004,26(3)283-295.[2]EliasRJ,VictorDV.EnergyTransitionsinDevelopingCountries:aReviewofConceptsandLiterature[R].WorkingPaper,2005.[3].[J].2002(9)49-56.[4].DEA[J].,2007(8)66-76.[5].[J].2008(1)8-18.[6].[J].2007(2)10-13.[7]Fisher-VandenK,JeffersonGH,LiuH,etal.WhatisDrivingChina’sDeclineinEnergyIntensity?[J].Resource31ContemporaryFinance&EconomicsandEnergyEconomics,2004,26(1)77-97.[8].———[J].2005(4)30-37.[9].———[J].2010(9)89-97.[10].R&D———[J].2010(5)104-110.[11].[J].1998(11)31-35.[12]CharnesA,CooperW,RhodesE.MeasuringtheEfficiencyofDecisionMakingUnites[J].EuropeanJournalofOper-ationalResearch,1978,2(6):429-444.[13]AndersonP,PetersenNC.AProcedureforRankingEfficientUnitsinDataEnvelopmentAnalysis[J].ManagementScience,1993,39(10):1261-1264.[14].TOPSIS[J].200725(4)75-78.20121326AStudyoftheKeyInfluencingFactorsonConsumptionEfficiencyofChina’sNon-RenewableEnergyResourcesWUChun-you,ZHAOAo,WANGXiao-lingDalianUniversityofTechnology,Dalian116023,ChinaAbstractWiththeaccelerationofChina’sindustrializationandurbanization,theconsumptionofnon-renewableenergyresourceshasbeenincreasingrapidly;thepressureposedbyeconomicdevelop-mentonenergysupplyandenvironmentrestrictionhasbeenonthevergeofthebottom-lineofthebalancedsustainabledevelopment.Nomatterintermsofthenationalenergysafetyorharmoniousde-velopmentoftheenergy-economy-environmentsystem,toimprovetheconsumptionefficiencyofthenon-renewableenergyresourcesisaninevitablechoice.Underthisbackground,thisarticlecalculatestheconsumptionefficiencyofthenon-renewableenergyresourcesinChinaduring1990-2009basedonC2B-DEAandsuper-efficiencyDEAmodelandmakesanempiricalanalysiswiththeregressionmodelofinfluencingfactors,namelythefivemajorfactorsofindustrialstructure,degreeofopenness,urbanizationprocess,technicalprogressandnon-renewableenergyconsumptionstructure.Theresultsindicatethatthereexistsanegativecorrelationbetweentheconsumptionefficiencyofthenon-renew-ableenergyresourcesandsuchfactorsastheproportionofthethirdindustry,theproportionofthetotalexport-importvolumeofforeigntrade,urbanizationrateandtheproportionofcoalconsumptioninthecompositionofnon-renewableenergyresources;whereasbetweentheproportionofR&Dfund-ingandtheconsumptionefficiencyofthenon-renewableenergyresourcesthereexistsasignificantpositivecorrelation.Atpresentstage,toupdateandinnovatethetechnologyandtoreducethepropor-tionofcoalconsumptionarethesignificantwaystoimprovetheconsumptione

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