中国农业资源与区划Ch

31,6Vol31,No6,pp3743201012ChineseJournalofAgriculturalResourcesandRegionalPlanningDecember,2010PSR姚予龙(,100101),PSR,,,AHPDelphi1991~2007,,,GDP,PSR:20100820*::(70873119);(40871253):(066U0401SZ),,,,[1]4,4,,,PSRDPSIR[2-3],AHPDelphi[4-5],,1991~2007,(P)(S)(R)PSR,PSR,,1PSR114:,,;,(P)(S)(R);,;,,12:,,,;,!!,,,19,12311//,,2;,,,,,3GDPGDP,GDP,GDP4;(,),/GDP5,;,,6,,(,,),,,,21,;,2,;3,,,,,4,,,5,;,,,,,,,,3820106,;,,,,,7;2090,,8,,,31,,15~49;,1991,,2R&DGDP,;,90,,3,;,,4;5;,,2AHP21,19,,,CI,CR=CI/R01,,,,,,,4,22,,,,,;,;,,396:PSR,5PSR4()1S04127004840484011080059800329001810253601172006970040200265P003681019860109200547010930089400547006010036100241R0219200527005270120500663005420045800230002305PSR19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007484470456442428389350312273234196157119086052028000097101118086119181152177162071051053000065086106107329295259257236221181179156141149124101015023009000000112317431435425354472488426474419598497456450449117210721005921837753837100510881005921837770569385184000582547697661628596565537512489300449432000390095074402371340311291275253230206177153124066041024010000001001001000000000030030174174174174174265265265265S306729683193311029742841272329413060271824172338225915371681114789610921002911822737652569494425361302246194144093046000547528509489470429387345303262220178136099061032000894874843795748711685670655626595565518352260148000547541539534515513505518509462465456444296225132000361317275291319269281244040000162243271211200164142030017000044008040022158076176153230209241204110114P347132803077297627972614244924292009188718951919177213431043632256000072116136261218256290323412412445463459525516473261375342234067000094127221335382489549489563616663000006011026033039063069102198126142188273438467542000015029043058071086100115131172155172189203218230000008014025034042060096104131119180195174182208230R2614755114654523695596828661207121114101567158319112023213867996723678165506223582557316052593558125523566855984463463538033290402010,,,,,,,,2323110,1991~2007,6799%3290%,3509,233,(1991~1996),6799%19965825%,974,195(1997~2003),19975731%20035598%,133,20035598%20073290%,2308(51)1PSR(1991~2007)232199120073471%256%,3215(1991~19966)P,,1997,2003,20031772%,2007256%233S,3067%896%,2171(1991~1996)(1997~2003),(2003~2007)(20032259%,2007896%),,234,,261%,2138%,1877,19911996,261%~369%,;,1997559%20072138%,,235PSR,PSR416:PSR200719914839%,19911996143,1997(199819991995),2000,2004,,,1991~1996617,1996~20032386,43261991~1996316,1997~2003842,1789,384%,1996634%;1997,20032799%,20076498%,23,PSR1991~2007,,(P)(S)(R)(P),,10,(P)(S),(R),,(),,,:,,,,;,,,,;,,,,,,,,4220101,,,,2006,(6):142~1482OECD,,No83,,1993,3~83,,2002,24(5):46~514(AHP),1994,(3):18~215TL,,∀.:,1988SIMULATIONANDREASONANALYSISOFCHINA'SRESOURCESSECURITYEVOLUTIONTRAJECTORYBASEDONPSRMODELYaoYulong(Instituteofgeographicalscienceandresources,Chineseacademyofsciences,Beijing100101)AbstractBasedonthelong-termresearchonthestateresourcessecurity,thispaperintroducedthePSRmode,lconstructedthedynamictracingevaluationindexsystemofChinaresourcessecurity.Withdetaileddatastatistics,theAHPandDelphimethodswereusedtosimulateandtracethechangetrackoffactorsinfluencingthepressure,situation,andresponseofChinas'stateresourcessecuritysystemfrom1991~2007.TheresultsindicatedthatChinas'governmentandrelevantauthoritieshadtakenactiveresponsemeasuresonresourcessecurity,buttheoveralllevelofthestates'resourcessecuritystillshowedatrendofdecline,thebasicreasonswasthatthestressofthepopulation,GDP,andresourcetradewereincreasingyearbyyearandhencecausedresourcessecurityvulnerable.KeywordsPSRmode;lresourcesecurity;trajectorysimulation;genesisanalysis436:PSR