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:3:,,,:(1),81%97%;(2),,,;,,:3,,:100836,:wulixue@sina.com(50556002),,UCLA,(2007),(2009)HP,RavnandUhlig(2002)6125100BPCF,,:2070,,:(,2003;,2005),(,2006;,2007;,2007),,,,HP(HodrickandPrescott,1997),,119522006(),,,2,,()(),,,,2005200210%,4%,031::6%,3,A:,,;BC,,,12,,(Rosenberg,1980),(KimandLoungani,1992),,,,,,,,,,,,?,,(realbusinesscycle,RBC),,,(PindyckandRotemberg,1983)(Greenwoodetal.,1988),,KydlandandPrescott(1982)(dynamicstochasticgeneralequilibrium,DSGE),Finn(1995,2000)RotembergandWoodford(1996)RBC,(),,:,,,Finn(1995,2000);,,,;,,;,131200953,,:,;;;,,,,,:,,,,;,,,,,,(),231::(),:,;,;,;,,(),,(Kingetal.,1988),:Yt=zt[Ktht][AtntLt]1-(1),t,Y;z,;K,h,Kh(Capitalserve);A,;L,n,nL;,At=AAt-1,Lt=LLt-1,AL;,1-,01,,(1),,:Et=-tEatKt(2)E,;E,;a,,Finn(1995,2000),:at=a(ht)=htP(3)1,,:Kt+1=(1-t)Kt+It(4)I,,,,:t=(ht)=1ht(5)1,,:It+Ct+Gt+PtEtYt(6)C,G,P(),,,:yt=zt(ktht)n1-t(7)et=atkt=1htkt(8)ALkt+1=(1-t)kt+it(9)33120095,,(2),,it+ct+gt+ptetyt(10)yt=YtAtLt,kt=KtAtLt,it=ItAtLt,ct=CtAtLt,gt=GtAtLt,pt=-tEPt,et=tEEtAtLt,t()()1.,,,,:(ndt,kt,ht)=yt-wtndt-(rt+t)kt-ptet(11),nd,w,r2.1,:U=t=0bt[(Atct)lt]1-P[A0(1-)](12)0b1,;c;l,(1),l=1-ns;0,;0,,=b1-A,At=AAt-1,:U=t=0t[ct(1-nst)]1-P(1-)(13)3.,,x,(lumpsumtax),:gt=rtkt-xt(14),,,,,(),,nst=ndt,st=it-tkt,xt=0it+ct+gt+ptet=yt,(,2009):wt=(1-)zt(ktht)(nt)-(15)twt=[ct(1-nst)]-ct(1-nst)-1(16)431::,,(),rt+1ht+pt1ht=htzt(ktht)-1n1-t(17)ht+ptht=htzt(ktht)-1n1-t(18)t=[ct(1-nt)]-(1-nt)(19)ALt=Ett+1[1+(1-)rt+1](20)ALkt+1=[1-(ht)]kt+yt-ct-gt-pta(ht)kt(21)yt=zt(ktht)n1-t(22)(15)(16),;(17),();(18),;(19);(20);(21);(22),,,zt+1=zt=zpt+1=pt=pgt+1=gt=g,St+1=St=S[k,y,n,c,i,h,e,,r,w],(15)(22),(,2009),,,,(),,,(,2004),,,(calibration),,1.,1,0(z=1),(greatratio),,0105,,1952200619782006(),,,=2,,(5312009501040106011,:;,,,),,,,,25%33%1978200619522006,1978200619522006013571013929(,2006),,,(2)(3)h=(tEEPK)1,(1):Yt=ztA1-i(tE)(ntLt)1-EtK-t(23),(2008)1-v-v012563012423015014,017437,310693,2.,,,,,,,,,,(AR(1)),,:ln(zt+1)=zln(zt)+(1-z)ln(z)+zt+1(24)ln(pt+1)=plnzt+1+pln(pt)+(1-p)ln(p)+pt+1(25)ln(gt+1)=glnzt+1+gln(gt)+(1-g)ln(g)+gt+1(26)z,z,z,p,p,pg,g,g,pg,,,(1):lnTFPt=lnzt+(1-)lnAt=lnYt-ln(Ktht)-(1-)ln(ntLt)(27),,(27),,,,(23),(23)At=AAt-1,:lnYt=lnA0+ln()+(1-)lnn+lnzt+t[(1-)lnA+lnE]+lnEt+-lnKt+(1-)lnntnLt(28):631::lnTFPt=lnA0+ln()+(1-)lnn+lnzt+t(1-)lnA+lnE(29):lnTFPtlnYt-lnEt--lnKt-(1-)lnLt(30),,(30),(,2009),(24)(25)(26),pg,3.,,,(29)1952200619782006,(),:,;,,,;,,,1.,,456,,1952200619782006,HP(6125),,,,,,,42.1(10000),,73120095561(19782006)1.861.000.571.000.571.6588.441.000.061.000.060.970.520.780.630.050.4040.610.240.81-0.17-0.42NANANANANA0.89NA0.540.020.970.092.241.200.120.510.320.4319.360.260.160.68-0.045.593.000.250.800.705.86104.833.560.230.89-0.02NANANANANA0.56NA0.34-0.170.550.152.261.210.460.590.301.6271.630.980.010.540.06-1.91.020.010.280.201.5481.130.940.060.480.00-1.780.96-0.15-0.4-0.351.7296.791.050.17-0.55-0.151.440.780.290.860.631.2888.650.78-0.050.970.114.982.680.130.420.456.31126.643.830.100.27-0.043.281.76-0.070.360.553.53107.472.140.640.28-0.24:(%),NA,1978200688%41%72%,81%97%,,:,;,;,,,831::,,,,,Prescott(1986):,RBC,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,1.19782006,1%7:,,,,(peakeffect)3,5114%,0142%,6,,,,1145%,,9,;,,8,,;,,,8,;,:,,;,78,,,,,,,2.91%:,,,,23,,,,8,1P20,1P2,,,,93120095107891031,10:,,23,(overshooting),,,,,()(),,,,,;,,,,20%1%4.,111%10%:,;,;,,40,121%10%20%:,041::,,,,,,,1112(),,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,(),(),(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,14120095,,DSGE,,,,88%,72%,81%,97%,,,,,,,,,,;,,;,(),,,2006:,9,2007::,2,2008:,2,2003:,8,2007::(19492006),,2006:,4,2004:RBC,2,2009::,,2007:,8,2005::19932002,5Finn,MaryG.,1995,VariancePropertiesofSolowsProductivityResidualandTheirCyclicalImplications,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,Vol.19,pp.12491281.Finn,MaryG.,2000,PerfectCompetitionandtheEffectsofEnergyPriceIncreasesonEconomicActivity,JournalofMoney,Credit,andBanking,Vol.32,pp.400416.Greenwood,Jeremy,Hercowitz,ZviandHuffman,Gregory,1988,Investment,CapacityUtilization,andtheRealBusinessCycle,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.78,pp.402417.Hodrick,RobertJ.,andPrescott,EdwardC.,1997,PostwarUSBusinessCycles:AnEmpiricalIvestigation,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,Vol.29,pp.116.Kim,In2MooandLoungani,Prakash,1992,TheRoleofEnergyinRealBusinessCycleModels,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,Vol.29,pp.173190.King,RobertG.,Plosser,Charles,andRebelo,Sergio,1988,Production,GrowthandBusinessCycles:I.theBasicNeoclassicalModel,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,Vol.21,pp.195232.Kydland,FinnE.andPrescott,EdwardC.,1982,TimetoBuildandAggregateFluctuations,Econometrica,Vol.50,pp.13451370.Pindyck,RobertS.andRotemberg,JulioJ.1983,DynamicFactorDemandsandtheEffectsofEnergyPriceShocks,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.73,pp.106179.Prescott,EdwardC.,1986,TheoryAheadofBusiness2CycleMeasurement,Carnegie2RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy,Vol.25,pp.1144.(160)241::;;,,,,,,,,(:)(:)(142)Ravn,MortenO.andUhlig,Harald,2002,OnAdjustingtheHodrick2PrescottFilterfortheFrequencyofObservations,ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,Vol.84,pp.371376.Rosenberg,Nathan,1980,HistoricalRelationsbetweenEnergyandEconomicGrowth,inJoyDunkerley(ed.),InternationalEnerg