化工业在中国：追上竞争(PDF8)(1)

Ch[e-mail]-JoachimFrankTechnicalAssistantMartinaEblingDeutscheBankResearchFrankfurtamMainGermanyInternet:@db.comFax:[phone]ManagingDirectorNorbertWalterOctober25,2005Chemicalsindustryatthecrossroads.Chinaisbecominganincreasinglyimportantconsumerandsupplierofchemicalproducts.Reasons:StrongdemandwithinthecountryandcostadvantagesoverWesternindustrialcountriesbothintheproductionofchemicalproductsandforkeycustomerindustriesbuildingupproductioncapacities.GrowthboominChina.DBResearchexpectschemicalsturnoverinChinatoboomupto2015.Salesshouldgrowby10%annuallytonearlyEUR400bn–versusincreasesofmerely3.5%intheUSAand3%inGermany.Withthisgrowth,China’schemicalsindustrywillincreaseitsshareoftheworldmarketfrom8%to13%.ThiswouldmakeChinathesecondbiggestproduceraftertheUSAasof2015.Majorcapacitybuild-up.WesternmultinationalsandlocalChinesecompaniesarecurrentlysettingupextensiveproductioncapacitiesinChina.Forexample,over2milliontonnesofethylenecapacityaresettogoonstreamin2005,andafurthernearly4milliontonnesarelikelytobeaddedin2006(asacomparison:Germanethyleneproductionin2004:5milliontonnes).Directinvestmentplaysakeyrole.Theincreaseincapacityismainlybeingfinancedbydirectinvestmentsaspartofcooperativeventureswithforeignbusinesspartners.Curbingfactors.ThegrowthofthechemicalsindustryinChinaisbeinghamperedbecauseimportantunderlyingconditionsarenotinplace.Thisholdsforrestrictionsintheenergysectoraswellasbottlenecksintransportation.Importdemandstayshigh.EventhoughChinaisnowtheworld’sfourth-largestmakerofchemicalproducts,domesticproductionisunabletocoverdemandinallsegments.In2004,thecountryimportedproductsworthEUR44bn,whichisroughlyequivalenttoBelgium’stotalchemicalsturnover.ChemicalindustryinChina:Overtakingthecompetition020040060080010002004200520102015EU-25ChinaGermanySources:VCI,DBResearchChemicalsturnoverinChinaisboomingEURbnChina'schemicalsindustryisbooming.DBResearchexpectschemicalsturnovertheretogrowby10%p.a.inthetenyearsahead,withChinagainingimportancenotonlyduetoitsdemandforbutalsoitsoutputofchemicalproducts.Theincreaseincapacityismainlybeingfinancedbydirectinvestmentsaspartofcooperativeventureswithforeignbusinesspartners.Ifkeyunderlyingconditionslikerestrictionsintheenergysectorandbottlenecksintransportationdidnothamperitsgrowth,theperformanceoftheChinesechemicalsindustrycouldevenbemoreimpressive.CurrentIssues2October25,2005ChemicalssectorisNo.4forGermandirectinvestment1.StatusquoTheglobalchemicalsindustryisatacrossroads,largelybecauseChinaisbecominganincreasinglyimportantconsumerandsupplierofchemicalproducts.ThereasonsarestrongdemandwithinthecountryandcostadvantagesoverWesternindustrialcountriesbothintheproductionofchemicalproductsandforkeycustomerindustriesbuildingupproductioncapacities.InChina,chemicalsconsumptionhasincreasedbyabout12%p.a.overthepasttenyears,whiletheEU-25andtheUSAhavepostedfiguresofonly4%apieceandGermanymerely2%.TheindustrialcountriesareshiftingchemicalsactivitiestoChina,followingtheirmainclients–theautomobile,electricals&electronics,communicationsandtextilesindustries–thatwereattractedbytheChinesesalesprospectsandcostadvantages.Toremaincompetitive,directcontactbetweenWesternchemicalsproducersandcustomercompaniesinChinaisoftenofpivotalimportance.Thebigchemicalscompaniesmainlywanttoprofitfromhighdemandinthecountryandlowerwagecosts.AveragelabourcostsintheChinesechemicalssectorarelowerthanEUR1perhour,comparedwithaboutEUR5inPolandandmorethanEUR20inGermany.Furthermore,constructioncostsarerelativelylowandlicensingproceduresareconsiderablyshorterthaninEurope.Thesefavourableconditionsareattractingmorechemicalscompanies.Westernchemicalsmanufacturerscurrentlyarenotonlyestablishingsitesforsimpleproductionprocesses,butalsoforhigh-value-addedproductsthatincorporatethelatesttechnology.Researchanddevelopmentsitesarealsobeingsetup.Followingthelabour-intensivesectors,thecapital-intensivechemicalsindustryisnowincreasinglyinvestinginChina.AccordingtoGermany’sBundesbank,thechemicalssectorhadinvestedaboutEUR0.5bnthereby2003.ItisthereforeNo.4,followingtheautomobile,electricals&electronicsandmechanicalengineeringindustries.Germany’soverallchemicalsinvestmentinforeigncountriesuntil2003wasaboutEUR42bn–EUR24bninEUcountriesandEUR8bnintheUSA.ChinaisNo.4inchemicalsWithchemicalsturnoverofEUR137bn,ChinahasbecomeNo.4oftheworld’sbiggestchemicalsmanufacturers.OnlyintheUSA,JapanandGermanywereevenmorechemicalsproducedin2004.Chineseturnoverisequivalenttoabout97%oftheGermanlevelinthissector.Alreadyin1999,Chinadisplacedfourth-rankedFrance.Tenyearsago,China’sshareofglobalchemicalsturnoverwasonly3.5%.Gainingstrengthinthefollowingyears,lastyear'ssharewasGrowingchemicalsGrowingchemicalsGrowingchemicalsGrowingchemicalsconsumptionEURbnCNDEEU-25World199450903431,147199558933631,190199667893661,219199781933891,382199881953941,3441999931004091,45320001291114671,78820011391104791,80220021491094801,78620031571094861,69720041621105141,766Sou