化工过程爆炸灾害模拟评价及防灾决策支持系统研究(pdf 110)

UDC29936110BQ980292002.52002.5200220025OnsimulationandevaluationofexplosiondisasteranddecisionsupportsystemfordisasterpreventioninchemcialprocessDissertationSubmittedtoNanjingUniversityofTechnologyinpartialfulfillmentofrequirementforthedegreeofMasterofSafetyScienceandTechnologyByWangSanmingSupervisor:Prof.PhD.JiangJunchengMay2002UVCEBLEVELPG1ABSTRACTWithdevelopmentofchemicalandpetroleum-chemicalindustry,mainequipmentsandinstallationsbecomemoreandmoreautomatic,continuous,largeandcomplex.Andmoreandmorekindsofflammableandexplosivematerialsareprocessedandstoredintheprocessofchemicalindustry.Oncenormalrunningstateofdangeroussubstanceisdisturbedmajorexplosionaccidentwhichleadstohugepersoncasualty,lossofpropertyanddamageofenvironmentwillbeinduced.Sostudyonoccurrence,developmentandpreventionandcuremechanism,buildingofsimulationandevaluationtheoreticalmodelforexplosiondisastersintypicalchemicalprocessandDecisionSupportSystem(DSS)fordisasterpreventionisimportantcontentforestablishmentandperfectionofsocietydisasterpreventionsystemandimprovementofsocietysuccourabilitiesunderemergency.Thispaperfocusesontwokindsofmajorexplosiondisasteraccident,theyareVapourCloudExplosion(VCE)andBoilingLiquidExpandingVapourExplosion(BLEVE)intypicalchemicalprocess.Mechanism,conditionsandinfluentfactorsofoccurrenceanddevelopment,accidentcharacteristic,damagemechanismandaccidentmodesofUVCEandBLEVEhavebeenputforwardbyanalysis,sum-upandabstractofsubstantivetypicalexplosiondisasteraccidentcasesinchemicalandpetroleum-chemicalprocess.Databasesfordangerousmaterials,typicalaccidentcasesandtypicalexplosiondisasteraccidentmodeshavebeenbuilt.Existingwaysandmodelsforsimulationandevaluationofexplosiondisasterhavebeensummarisedandcomparedbycalculation,andtheirvirtuesanddefectshavebeenanalyzed.ThenmodelsforsimulationandevaluationofaccidentconsequenceofUVCEandBLEVEhavebeengiven,includingmodelsforexplosionfireball,distributinganddamageofshockwaveinspace,distributinganddamageofheatradiationinspace,humancasualtyandpropertyloss.Damagemodesofexplosiondisasterhavebeenstudiedandanalyzed.Evaluationrulesapplyingforgascloudexplosionhavebeensummarized.Accidentsimulationandevaluationwaybasedondisastermodelshavebeengiven.EvaluationparameterssystemfordisasterconsequenceofUVCEandBLEVEhasbeenestablished.SimulationandevaluationsoftwarefordisasterconsequenceofUVCEandBLEVEhasbeendeveloped.Afteranalysisandcomparisonofvirtuesandshortcomingsofexistingsystem2safetyevaluationways,ArtificialNeuralNetwork(ANN),ArtificialIntelligence(AI)andExpertSystem(ES)areusedtobuildnewsystemsafetyevaluationmeans.SystemsafetyevaluationmodelandintelligentexpertsystemforfaultdiagnosisbasedonANNhavebeenputforth.Developmentandrealizationofvisualneuralnetworkforsystemsafetyevaluationandfaultdiagnosisprovidesnewideaforsystemsafetyevaluationandaccidentmodediagnosis.Ideasandstepsforbuildingofsuccourmeasuresunderemergentdisasterhavebeensuggested.Contentsofsuccourmeasuresunderemergentdisasterhavebeensummarized.DetailedrescueprincipleandprocedureunderleakaccidentofLPGarealsogivenasanexample.Knowledgebase,modelbase,arithmeticbaseandinferenceengineforexplosiondisasterpreventionandemergencysuccourarebuilt.Designanddevelopmentideafordecisionsupportsystembasedonobject-orientedideaareoffered.DesignofstructureandmainfunctionmodulesofDSSfordisasterpreventionaregiven.DistributingDSSfordisasterpreventionandsimulationofdisasterinchemicalprocessisrealizedbysystemintegrationofdiagnosismoduleforaccidentmode,neuralnetworkmodule,disastersimulationandevaluationmodule,knowledgebaseanditsmanagementsystemdatabaseanditsmanagementsystem,modulebaseanditsmanagementsystem,supportenvironmentforsoftwaresystem,networkandhardware.Bycombinationofdisastersimulationandevaluationmodelscheckedbytypicalaccidentcases,disasterpreventionsoftwareandengineeringpracticethispaperisestablishedonbasisofcertainfactandcorrecttheoreticalmodel.KEYWORDSVapourcloudexplosion(VCE),Boilingliquidexpandingvaporexplosion(BLEVE),Accidentmechanism,Model,Simulationandevaluation,ArtificialNeuralNetwork(ANN),ArtificialIntelligence(AI),DecisionSupportSystem(DSS)31ABSTRACT211.141.251.391.4111322.1152.2212.2.1212.2.2232.3262.3.1UVCE262.3.2BLEVE302.3.3UVCE312.3.4BLEVE323633.1383.1.1383.1.2383.2393.2.1423.2.2444644.1474.2494.3546055.1615.1.1615.1.2615.2645.2.1645.2.2727466.1756.2776.3786.3.1796.3.2816.3.3846.4889077.1917.29810088.11018.210310410511.1196614188119728.43753[1]1997914HPCL601.5200199019934No.BQ98029No.299361101.2DOW1964DOW1974DOWICIMONDRasmussen1974ETAFTA5198519821992ILO79TECHNICASAFETISAVEII1.2.1206090ModellingandExperimentalResearchintoGasExplosionsMERGEJ.A.DavenportJ.H.PicklesS.H.Bittleston1[2]40mm20m2[3]3[4]4----[5]Lind1975LindWhitson1977Moen1982WingerdenDauwe1983HarrisonEyre[30]19864000Dr.MichaelC.Parnarouskis,LCDRMichaelW.Taylor,Dr.C.D.Lind,Dr.Phanip.k.Raj,Dr.J.M.6CeceLNG19731TNTTNTTNTBullElsworth1977Benedick1979R.A.Strehlow,R.T.Luckritz,A.A.AdamcyzS.S.Shimpi19792VandenBerg,B.J.Wiekema,C.J.M.VanWingerdenG.Opschoor(Multi-EnergyMethod)3Kuhl[7]4EXSIMFLACSRE