国际能源转型现状与前景

[],,,,,,,,[][],,,2070,,,2008,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2050-60,19546,50001956,7500,,20%2060,,5320096,,,2070,,1973,,,70,,19818,2080,,21,,,,,,20202050,20%50%;,205050%;3,8%201210%,202525%;203020%-30%;,50,,,,,2002-2006,,15%-30%,60%,25%2007,27.8%,28.5%37%2007,20054002006550710,47%30%9%2009,2008()1550,(1110),200749%,70,,,20152008,,,,,,,,,,6320096:(),,2008,25JohnVidal,Change,butatwhatprices,ChinaDdialogue,No.11,2009.2,p.80.,,,,,,,,,,,,,(DME),(),,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1916,,251919,,91956,6070,,1970,70,,202121,,,2010,,,,,,,,,,,,7320096[],:!!,,2007,25,,,,,,2050,,,50,,,1973,2090,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,2080,,1992,,,,21,,,200512,,2007122009,,,,,,2008,,,15,,()1950-60,,,(207021),,2008,8320096GlobalTrends2025:ATransformedWorld,:IEA:,,20092,47,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2006,80.9%,6.2%12.9%,,14.8%18.3%,2006,(CRW)10.1%,2.2%,0.6%,16%,2.3%,,,,,,,,4-10,,,,,,2,1000,90%,30%,1500,,,,,,,,,,,,(2.2)(1300),,,,,,,,,9320096[](PeterTerzakian),::,,2009,198[]ST,:,,2008,245-246,,,(),(),,,,,,,,,,2000,1997-2007,2317.73177.5,37%3433.33952.8,15%,38.5%35.6%,26%28.6%,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0420096:,,20092,82BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,June2008.:(),15[],:!!,252,2070,,80,10,,,2008,2008,25%2009,,,2009,2009,53%,,,,,,,,,751860-1960,100,,,,,,,,67,205090,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2.31420096[],::,163[],::,161,3501000,,,(),(Newcomen),,,,(),,,35,20095,,10-20,(:)[],::,168(22),,,G3()G5(),,,G2,,,30,,,,,G2021,,(:)2420096C.FredBergsten,APartnershipofEquals:HowWashingtonShouldRespondtoChinapsEconomicChallenge?ForeignAffairs,Jul/Aug2008,:HowWashingtonShouldRespondtoChinapsEconomicChallenge?ForeignAffairs,Jul/Aug2008,:,,2009112,10(ElizabethC.Economy)Eliz2abethC.EconomyandAdamSegal,TheG-2Mirage:WhytheUnitedStatesandChinaAreNotReadytoUpgradeTies,ForeignAffairs,May/June2009,