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上海交通大学硕士学位论文城区清洁能源替代政策的影响评估：以上海市燃煤锅炉及工业炉窑为例姓名：刘铁申请学位级别：硕士专业：公共管理指导教师：彭勃20090228I20016014.7II135.9SO2,SO2,ABSTRACTIIITHEASSESSMENTOFTHECLEANENERGYSUBSTITUTIONPOLICYACASESTUDYOFTHEENERGYSUBSTITUTIONFORTHECOALBURNINGBOILERSANDINDUSTRIALFURNANCESINTHESHANGHAICITYABSTRACTSinceshanghaiproclaimedshanghaieconomycommitteeandmunicipalenvironmentprotectingbureau’sresolutiononthecleanenergysubstitutionforthecity'scoalburningboilersandindustrialfurnacesinJuly,2001,thepolicylargelypromotestheadjustmentofthestructureofthecity'sresourcesusinganddoesgreatdealtoimprovetheatmospherequality.Onthepointofpolicyprofitstandard,policyinvestmentstandardandpolicyefficiencystandard,Thisessaymakeacompoundassessmentforthisresolutionbygoal-attainmentevaluationmodelwhichcomesfromtheeffectivenessmodels,andtheefficiencymodelwhichcomesfromtheeconomicmodels.TheassessmentregardsthatthepolicyofcleanenergysubstitutionforthecoalburningboilersiseffectivelycarriedoutduringtheTenthFive-Yearperiod,itpromotestheenergystructuraloptimization.Throughthetransformationofthecoalburningboilers,wemadethediversityofthecoalburningatthelevelofzerointheareaofABSTRACTIVtheinteriorcircleline,andwealsomakeitdecreaseddistinctlybetweentheinnercirclelineandoutercirclelinearea.Thepolicydoeswellonbetteringthetown'satmospherequalityandcontrollingthewholecity'ssulfurdioxidelevel.Theanalysisontheresolution'seconomicalprofitalsoindicatesthat,justtakingthedecreasedemissionofsulfurdioxideintoaccount,therationofcostandtheeconomyaffecteddirectlybypolicyis1:4.7;Onthepointoftheeconomicalprofitbythedecreasedemissionofthesulfurdioxideduetothepolicy,thesamerationarrivesat1:35.9.iftheeconomicalprofitsofdecreasedemissionofthesmokedust,nitrogenoxidesandcarbonmonoxidearealsotookintoaccount,theeffectofthispolicyisoutstanding.Attheendofthispaper,weanalyzetheexistingproblemintheprocessofthepolicyimplementation,theresultindicatesthatthepolicyofcleanenergysubstuitutionshouldbeimprovedandconsummated;andthenewpoliciesaimedtocutthecoalwastageforelectricpowerplantsshouldbemadeassoonaspossible,sothatwecanminimizetheemissionofthesulfurdioxide,andcontroletheday-worsingairpollutioneffectively.KEYWORDS:cleanenergysubstitution,industrialboiler,energyconsumption,energystructure,policyassessment,airpollutionIIIIV12001200140721951.D.(HaroldD.Lasswell).(DanielLerner)ThePolicySciences:RecentDevelopmentsinScopeandMethodpolicyscience.1967.A..G.20602060703.T.20702080123411221233123520012001407200514/00200140764/1/12501231450%50%23[1999290]7412128[1][2][3]1952[4][1],.[J],,2004,21(1)245-247[2],.[J],,2000,13(2):83-85[3],,.[M].:,1999[4],[M].:,199891992GDP10%19923656.92/20005499.48/19923218/20004499.6/,:1.19984919991952.3.95199670%19972000363719993326311999300681.2219810434.19961999155.1996961000,1998866,1999576,20009126.199612/7.1997199819971.4%0.89%10419990.81.081997199814199924919981019992000112000SO2(TSP)2-1SO2(TSP)mg/m3SO2TSP19900.050.10.010.280.360.1619910.050.110.010.260.330.1719920.060.090.010.280.330.1919930.050.090.010.250.280.1619940.0380.0730.010.2470.2810.1719950.0320.0530.0120.2370.2460.17519960.0320.0590.010.2290.2410.20319970.0320.0680.0080.2130.2330.16719980.0250.0530.0060.1890.2150.14719990.020.0440.0050.1750.1680.15220000.0220.0450.0040.1550.1560.128[1][1].[N].:1990-20051119902000SO2TSPSO219900.1mg/m320000.045mg/m355%TSP19900.36mg/m30.156mg/m356.6%2-12000SO2TSPSO2SO20.45mg/m3SO20.004mg/m311TSP0.156mg/m3TSP0.128mg/m300.020.040.060.080.10.1219901991199219931994199519961997199819992000SO2mg/m3)00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.4TSP(mg/m3)SO2SO2TSPTSP2-119902000[1]SO220003826SO20.030.05mg/m32SO250%--80%2SO2[1],,,.[R].:,2003120.010.03mg/m3187SO217%--50%187SO24141SO20.9SO20.010.03mg/m318799SO20.01mg/m3882SO21.02SO20.010.03mg/m318773SO20.01mg/m311434SO21.02SO20.010.06mg/m318915SO20.01mg/m317444SO21.7SO20.010.06mg/m318910SO20.01mg/m31792000SO2NOX13[1][2][3]72%60%70%20%30%30%60[4]70%90%[5]2-254%48%2-2/CO2SO2NOX410023114.2330010.57.31.624000.022.80[3]40%[4][1],.[J],,2004,21(1)245-247[2],.[J],,2000,13(2):83-85[3],,,.[R].:,2003[4].[J].,2007,1:1-7[5],.[J].,2006,3:76-78142000450065.5%123932.82.5m30.6701/3[1]1112[2]10664000200082320013585%200340m32005100m32010200m312090013.515.327[1]..[J].2003,17(1):23-26[2],[M].:,199815199623.6%16[1][1].[M].:,2002172030702090[1][2][3][1].[M].:,2002[2].[J].2003,22(3):6-11[3].[M].:,199618,().A.,effortperformance(adequacyofperformance)(efficiencyandprocess)[1].N.[2][3][1],[1].[M].:,2002[2].[M].:,1996[3],.[M].:198219,policyresponsivity20EvertOskerVedung(effectivenessmodels)(economicmodels)(professionalmodels)(Peerreviewmodel)()()3-1:(1)()(2)()21:;:()(1)(2):22;:;2320001996-200020002001200524,,policyresponsivity,:(1)()(2)()25:265200120052000[1]2001200520003211506214-14-24-1200044(km2)(/km2)552696211006.2192513110565801.822022127214956600.3803499327382663400.603[2]6211500200120052005[1].[N].:1990-2005[2],,,.[R].:,2003274-1200038264349991.5%16.227.643.84-2200544(km2)(/km2)00010002281113395800.5841298123142156600.2511526234176063400.27862154150019.27100%67.9%475.4%33.9%435.8%54.0%456.4%4/1/1