工业化新阶段农业基础性地位的转变

,,,,,,,,:,1957,;,1973,2050,;60,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,74,,,,,;,,,:,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,:(),;,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,:,,,,,4%5%12%15%(),[],,,?8420013:,16:,1995,134:,1991,31?:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;(),,,,:(1),;,,,(2),,;,,,(3),,,,(),;,,40,1961,,1984,,:,,,?,,,(,);,,,,19,,,94:(),1984,31P:,60P:,1992,61,,,(),,(),,,;,,,,Hua198319601979,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),:19,;18801950,,,?Harbison,,,;,,,(Murphy,1989),,;,,,;,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,0520013:,1995,330,31M1(),1989,376,,,,,,JohnstonMellor,18951960(Johnston,1961),(Murphy&Others,1989),,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,(:20),,,,?,,,15P1,211,:,,,,(Rosenstein2Rodan,1943),50,(Fleming,1955)60,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,80%90%(,410),,,60,70,197519571116%,,,,,,19611963,19661976,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,(MKT)(PRDT)(EMP)(F2EX)(CAPT),19781998,,MKTPRDT,EMPF2EXCAPT();,,MKTPRDTEMPF2EXCAPTCR2R2D2W12131(8113)-1168(-1122)2187(0109)0135(0172)-1130(-0196)0196901961017721198(2318)01147(0128)21432(01197)-1108(-0158)-1279(-2195)01996019951113-01727(-216)21525(1114)01547(1116)8156(0183)-01118(-0175)-1170(-3118)01997019961174:,21,C,TMKT,1992,1997PRDTEMP,19781982198919911999F-EXCAPT,;;,,,,,,,1988:;;2520013,,,:,80,,;,,(19781379199823764,197813419982160),,,19851997,01998,1,5163,(),1998,764514,26%1985,,;,,,,,,,:;,(),,,:(1),;(2),,;(3),,,,,,,,,,:35,:,,(,),,80,,,,,,,:(1),;,,(),(2),(),,115115,,,,,,(3),,,,,,,,(4),,,,,,;WTO,,,,,,,,,,,?,,,,,,,,:(1);(2),,,,;(3),,,,,452001380%,300%400%;,,:(1),,(2),,,(3),,,,:(1),,,(2),,,(),(3),,,::,1995:,1990:,1997:,19996M1(),1989:,,1989:,1995:,1987P1:,1992:,1988:,19993:,20002:(),1984Fleming,1955,ExternalEconomicandtheDoctrineofBalancedGrowth,EconomicJournal,LXV,241256.Johnston,BruceFandJohnW.Mellor,1961,TheroleofAgricultureinEconomicDevelopment,AmericanEconomicReview,LI,566593.Murphy,Shleifer&Vishny,1989,IncomeDistribution,MarketSizeandIndustrialization,QuarterlyJournalofEconom2ics,Vol.104,537564.Rosenstein2Rodan,1943,ProblemsofIndustrializationofEasternandSoutheasternEurope,EconomicJournal,LIII.VitoSaccomandi,1998,AgriculturalMarketEconomics,VanGorcum,Assen.:55economicrestructuringandpoliticalinstitutionalreform.(3)QuestionsRaisedbyDavidHumeandtheAnswersGivenbyJinYuelinAlsoonthePracticalInevitabilityofInductionandtheReconstructionofInductiveLogicChenBo35DavidHumechallengedtheobjectivityofcausalityandtheinevitabilityofinductiveinference.JinYuelinputforwardhisownuniqueanswerstoHumesquestions,butbothhisandotherChineseandforeignschol2arsanswershavenotbeensuccessful.ThispaperbelievesthatthereasonunderlyingHumesdoubtscon2cerningtheassumptionofanecessarylogiclinkbetweencauseandeffectisthatthethreehypothesesheputforwardareuntenable.Inductionisatacticofrecognitionthatmanhastoadoptforhisexistenceinthevastexpanseofthecosmos.Thereforeinductionisapracticallogicthatmustinevitablybeusedbyhumanbeings.Theinductivetacticofrecognitionhelpsmanbuildupcertaintiesandlawsfromhisrepeatedexperiences.Italsomakesitpossibleformantoconstruct,withinacertainlimit,reasonableinductiveandlogicalmethodolo2gies.Finally,thepaperputsforwardacomprehensiveprogramforthestudyofinductivelogic,whichincludesstudyofthelogicofdiscovery,the(objective)logicofdefense,the(subjective)logicofacceptance,andthelogicofrevisionorevolution.(4)ChangesintheRoleofAgricultureastheFoundationofNationalEconomyduringtheNewStageofIndustrializationHuangTaiyanWangJiangui47Theroleofagricultureasafoundationofanationaleconomyexhibitsitselfinitscontributionsinthefouraspects:products,productionelements,marketandforeignexchange.However,thefouraspectsofitscontri2butionarenotequallyimportantduringdifferentstagesofindustrialization.Inthemiddlestageofindustrializa2tionthecontributionofagricultureinproducts,productionelementsandforeignexchangegraduallydiminisheswhileitscontributiontothedevelopmentofthemarketisincreasinglyimportanttoeconomicgrowth.Greatsuccesseshavebeenachievedinthesupplyofagriculturalproductssincetheinitiationofreformandopening2up.However,therecurringphenomenaofanincreaseinagriculturalproductscoupledwithasimultaneousde2creaseintheincomeoffarmershascausedtheprocessofindustrialgrowthtobecomeconstrainedbythefurtherexpansionofruralmarkets.Thatremindsusthatwemusttakemeasurestobringaboutchangeintheroleofagricultureasafoundationofthenationaleconomy.(5)RuralWomen:EmploymentandIncomeAnEmpiricalAnalysisBasedontheDatafromSampleVillagesLiShi56Basedondatafromtheinvestigationofthetensamplevillagesconductedin1996,thispapermakesanempiricalanalysisoftheemploymentandincomeofruralwomeninChina.Theresultsshowthatthereareob2502ABSTRACTS