搜索
:20051216:(1974),,,:F590.8A1006575(2006)02004007(,200062),,,;;GrangerAnEmpiricalAnalysisoftheRelationshipbetweenTourismandEconomicGrowthinChinaYANGYong(SchoolofBusiness,EastChinaNormalUniversity,Shanghai200062,China)Abstract:Therelationshipbetweentourismandeconomicdevelopmenthasalwaysbeenthemainobjectofresearchintheacademiccircle.Thisinturninducesdifferentconclusionsaboutthepositionoftourism.Usinghistoricdata,thisstudyinvestigatedthecasualrelationshipbetweentourexpenditureofChinesecitizensandtheeconomicgrowthofChinaintheperiodstartingfromtheimplementationofopenpolicyin1978totheyear2006.Theconclusionshowsthatthereisntastablecause-effectrelationshipbetweenChinastourismanditseconomicgrowth.Thepaperanalyzedthecaus2esandproposedsomesuggestionsconcerningpolicymaking.Keywords:tourexpenditure;economicgrowth;Grangercausalitytest,,,(Khan,Phang&Toh,1995;Lee&Kwon,1995);(2003),,,(2000)2090,(2001)TSA,,,(2005),1988-2003GDP17.03%,(2004),20064202TourismScienceApril,2006Vol.20No.2,GDP,(2004),,1994GDP,1994-2002GDP13.58%(2001),,,(2003),,,,(2001),,1:6BankofKorea(2002),3.2%,,3.5%(Marin,1992),,,,BalaguerCantavalla-Jorda(2002),,,(WorldTourismOrganization,2000),,,,,,,,,,,,ShanSun(1998);,(BahmaniOskooee&Alse,1993;Chow,1987;Jin,1995),;KulendranWilson(2000)ShanWilson(2001);Chi-OkOh(2005),,GDP,,Granger,,,,,,:,,,?2080,TourismScience41,,,,,,,,(Coin2tegration),,(VAR),Granger,VAR1984-2004(TourReceipt),(GDP),,,(LTOURLGDP),,Eviews5.01.,,VAR,(LTOURLGDP),(Granger&Newbold,1974),,,,,,,,,,Dickey-Fuller(DF)AugmentedDickey-Fuller(ADF)Phillips-Perron(PP),(Integration)1:1(I,T,P)DFADFPPLTOUR(I,T,0)-1.508552-1.192526-1.245794LTOUR(I,N,1)-4.1264473,33,333-3.9799263,33,333-3.9801303,33,333LGDP(I,T,0)-1.641522-0.863758-0.725404LGDP(I,N,1)-2.1040373,33-1.976714-1.522999LGDP(I,N,2)-3.8133733,33,333-3.6545143,33-2.595288:1.IT,P,N2.3,33,33310%5%1%3.,,(LTOUR)DFADFPP0.01-0.10(:),tDFADFPP0101-0110(),,,,,,:LTOURtI(1)LGDP,tDFADF0101-01100105-0110,,0101-0110,,(LGDP),:LTOURtI(2),(Engler&42Granger,1987)Engle-Granger(EG),,,,(,2004),(ErrorCorrectionModel,ECM)(Engle&Granger,1987),,,,,,(ECM)2.VARGranger(ECM),,VAR,VAR,Granger,Akaike(AIC)Schwartz(SBC)(LR)2,2VAR(2),,,2LRAICSBC0NA2.2467202.344745169.69399-2.260834-1.966758210.863053-2.6955003-2.2053743:3,,Granger,Granger(1969)Sims(1972),3Granger,Granger,Granger(3)3GrangerH0FH0(P-)1LTOURLGDP0.315000.58292LGDPLTOUR3.7644230.071392LTOURLGDP2.015600.17591LGDPLTOUR2.202460.153193LTOURLGDP2.084270.17263LGDPLTOUR1.991010.185944LTOURLGDP5.4011530.03438LGDPLTOUR6.3863530.023605LTOURLGDP2.997990.19757LGDPLTOUR5.248410.10146:,35%,5%,23,;1,F0.01-0.10,TourismScience43P-(0.07139),0.10Granger;4,(3)1,,,,,,,,,,,,20,,,,,,1Granger,,,(,2005),,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,(2001)(2000)(2005)(2004)(2004),,,(,2005;,2004;,2001),,(FDI)(ChunChen,Lawrence&YiminZhang,1995;,1999;,2002;,2003;,2002;,2005)McGahey(1995),2080,20%,,,(),,20,(,2001;,2005;,2004),(,2000;,2001;,2003;,2003),,44,,,,,,,(,2005)(1999)(2001),(2005)3:;;,,,(,2001),(1995),:5,,,,,,(,2003),,,,,,,,,,(,1994;,2004),,(2001),,(2004),,,,,911SARS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:1.BahmaniOskooee,M.&Alse,J..ExportGrowthandEconomicGrowth:anApplicationofCointegrationandErrorCorrectionModeling[J].JournalofDevelopingAreas1993,27:535-542.2.Balaguer,J.&Cantavalla-Jorda,M..TourismasaLong-runEconomicGrowthFactor:TheSpanishCase[J].AppliedEconomics2002,34:877-884.3.BankofKorea.TheEconomicImpactStudyofTourismExpendituresinKorea[J].RetrievedJuly22,2002,from[J].TourismManagement2005,26:39-44.5.Chow,P.C.Y..CausalitybetweenExportGrowthandIndustrialDevelopment:EmpiricalEvidencefromtheNICs[J].JournalofDevelop2TourismScience45mentEconomics1987,26:55-63.6.ChunChen,Lawrence&YiminZhang.TheRoleofFDIChinasPost-1978EconomicDevelopment[J].WorldDevelopment,1995.7.Engle,F.R.andGranger,C.W..CointegrationandError-Correction:Representation,EstimationandTesting[J].Econometrica1987,55:251-276.8.Granger,C.W.J..InvestigatingCasualRelationsbyEconometricModelsandCross-SpectralModel[J].Econometrica1969,37:424-438.9.Granger,C.W.J.andP.Newbold.SpuriousRegressionsinEconometrics[J].JournalofEconometrics1974,2:111-120.10.Jin,J..Export-ledGrowthandtheFourLittleDragons[J].TheJournalofInternationalTradeandEconomicDevelopment1995,4:203-215.11.Khan,H.,Phang,S.,&Toh,R..TheMultiplierEffect:SingaporesHospitalityIndustry[J].CornellHotelandRestaurantAdminis2trationQuarterly1995,36:64-69.12.Kulendran,N.&Wilson,K..IstherearelationshipbetweenInternationalTradeandInternationalTravel[J].AppliedEconomics2000,32:1001-1009.13.Lee,C.&Kwon,K..ImportanceofSecondaryImpactofForeignTourismReceiptsontheSouthKoreanEconomy[J].JournalofTravelResearch1995,34:50-54.14.Marin,D..IstheExport-ledHypothesisValidforIndustrialCountries?[J].ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics1992,74:678-688.15.McGahey,S..SouthKorea.InS.Mather(Ed.)InternationalTourismreports[A].EconomicPublications,London,UK1995:23-47.16.Shan,J.&Sun,F..OntheExport-ledGrowthHypothesis:theEconomicEvidencefromChina[J].AppliedEconomic