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42320083JOURNALOFSHANGHAIJIAOTONGUNIVERSITYVol.42No.3Mar.2008:2008202228:100622467(2008)0320345215:,,.,,.,.,:,.,.,,,,,,.:;;;;:TK01:AReflectionsonEnergyIssuesinChinaJIANGZe2minAbstract:Energy,whichhasabearingonbotheconomicandnationalsecurity,isofimportanceandamajorconstrainingfactortotheeconomicandsocialdevelopmentofChina.Thearticleanalysesthecurrentworldenergystatusanddevelopmenttrendfromtheperspectivesofresources,productionandconsump2tionandinthecontextofitsimplicationsontheenvironmentandeconomicandsocialdevelopment,andex2ploresopportunitiesandchallengesforChinasenergydevelopment.Withafocusonthestrategyofener2gydevelopmentinChina,theauthorproposesanewenergydevelopmentapproachwithChinesecharacter2isticswhosemainelementsare:energy2saving,high2efficiency,diversifieddevelopment,environmentpro2tection,technologyguidanceandinternationalcooperation.Inotherwords,Chinaisstrivingtobuildare2liableenergyproduction,circulationandconsumptionsystemthatisefficient,technologicallyadvanced,lowpollutingandecologicallyfriendly.Along2termdevelopmentstrategywithpriorityonenergyconser2vation,efficientutillizationofprimaryenergyandadvancedelectricitysystemisexpoundedinthepaper.Theauthoralsodescribestheprospectofenergytechnologydevelopmentandstressestheimplementationofenergystrategybyfurtherimprovingenergypolicyandrelatedmechanisms,strengtheningmacro2man2agementandtheessentialroleofthemarketinresourceallocationsoastoensuretheeconomicandsocialdevelopmentofChinathroughreliableenergysupply.Keywords:energy;energydevelopment;energysecurity;energystrategy;energypolicy,.,.,,,,,.1,,,(12).,,.,,.1100Fig.1Changesoftheworldenergyresourcestructureoverthepast100years2100[1]Fig.2Changesoftheworldenergyconsumptionoverthepast100years:,(),1989;,2050,1995,4.1.1.,,,,.,,.,,,1.,,1.,GDP,,.,,.(EnergyConsumptionElasticityCoefficient),.:=1.22050,,.,,.,.,,.2090,,,,.21,,,,(3),.,3[2]Fig.3IncreaseofChinasenergyconsumptionsincethe10thFive2yearPlan64342.,,.1.3.2070,.,(4),2008100,,.,,,.,.,.,,.,.,.,50%,.,.4Fig.4Increasingtrendoftheoilpriceintheinternationalmarket:1.4,.CO2.,CO2280ppmv379ppmv(5);0.74(6),30.,.,,SO2CO2.,,.5150CO2[3]Fig.5ChangesoftheCO2concentrationintheatmosphereoverthepast150years6[4]Fig.6Changesoftheglobalaveragetemperatureoverthepast100years22.1,,,.,.,.,.BP(BritishPetroleum,).BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,variouseditions19792007(1),.2006,9091t,,147.7433:,,.20(Reserve/ProductionRatio,R/P,),4060(7).,,,(0.9201.000g/cm3),.,..,.(OrganizationofPetroleumExpor2tingCountries,OPEC)75.7%,60%.,1082.6%.,355.7%.:.,6%20%.:.,,,4%20%,30%.500C,,:,,,,.,.,,7Fig.7Changesofthereserveandproductionratioofoilandnaturalgasintheworld(2),.2006108.8TOE(1TOE=1.4286TCE),35.8%,1;28.4%,2;23.7%,3,,6.3%5.8%.(OrganizationofEconomicCooperationandDevelopment,OECD),,2.,,,.,,,,.2030,.(3),.,.2006,OECD51%,4.74TOE.,7.84TOE.1.31TOE,0.36TOE(8).,;,,.,19962006,260.62%;4.36%.(InternationalEnergyAgency,IEA),20062030.1.2%1.6%,70%(9).82006()Fig.8Comparisonoftheaverageenergyconsumptionpercapitaofsomecountries(regions)in2006:(2007)(2007)843429luFig.9Prospectofenergydemandindifferentregions(4),.CO2CH4N2O,.1979,1992,,.,,,.,..2006,5.8%lv,14.8%.,,.50,.,,.lu:2007lv,38%,(5),.,70%.2070,,,.,.,,,.,,.,,lw,.2.2(1),.,,13;,1317.,(10).:4.02kW,17500kWh,,,.1842t,,.lx20.4t,,,10lyFig.10ComparisonofpercapitapossessionofmainresourcesinChinaandtheaverageintheworldlw.,lx:,;,ly:9433:.23900m3,,,.,.(2),.2090,,200723.7TCE,.,20077kW,1GW700MW,,.,2020,,,0.43.,,.20032005,GDP;2006,GDP,,.(3),.,,.6,12t,200725.4t,40%.,,,,.,SO2(11)NOxCO2,.,CO2,(1213).lz:(2007)l{:CO2(2005)11[2]Fig.11EmissionofthemainpollutantsinChina12CO2lzFig.12ComparisonofpercapitaemissionofCO2intheworld13CO2l{Fig.13MajorcountriesemissionofCO2fromburningfuels(4),.2090,(1).199076.2%,200266.3%.,,200669.4%,21%.,,41,36,5.,1[5]Tab.1StructureoftheprimaryenergyconsumptioninChina/%198072.220.73.14.0198575.817.12.24.9199076.216.62.15.1199574.617.51.86.1200067.823.22.46.7200166.722.92.67.9200266.323.42.67.7200368.422.22.66.8200468.022.32.67.1200569.121.02.87.1200669.420.43.07.205342,,.(5),.,,,,,.,,,2006,11.1,40.5(14),.,,,,,.142006l|Fig.14ComparisonofthereserveandproductionratiooffossilfuelsenergyresourcesbetweenChinaandtheworldin2006l|:(2007)3,.,,.,,,.,,,,.3.1,,,,,.,,.(1)..,.,,,.,,.,;,,.(2).,,.,,.,,,,.(3).,.,.,,,.(4)..,,,,.,,,.,,.,,.(5).,.,,.,,,.,1533:,.,.3.23.2.1,,,.,,,.3.2.2.,,,,.3.2.3.,.,,,,,.3.2.4.,,,..(1).,,.,,,.,,,,.,630kg,570kg.96kg,86kg.(2).30%40%.,,,.,,.80%,70%..,33.5L,50%70%,.500km,.,,;,,,.(3)..30%.,20m2,,.,,.,(),,50%65%,90%,;,,,55%85%[6];,,,.,,.3.3,,.,.,,,,.3.3.1,,.,.,,,(2).,25342.,,;,,,.2l}Tab.2Comparisonoftechno2economicindexamongmajorcoalproductioncountries/t//[t(a)-1]/%/%9.937.171384910051.33.502.12165091001002.154.25505997972.114.8743331001001.6214115799.295.321.9550398453010.42584038372l}:;;.2005,2004,.,SO2NOx.,.(15),,.,SO2NOx;,CO2CO2,.,10%20%,.,.,.3.3.2,,,.15[7]Fig.15Schematicdiagramofthecoalpoly2generation,,,.,,.,;,;.,,.,,,,.l~:mu:,,..,50mD()(1mD1mPs,101.325kPa(1atm),1cm1cm21cm3)3.3.3,.,,,.,,.,,.,,,.,,l~,,mu3533:.,,,.3.3.4,.,,.,,(3).