我国区域经济增长与能源利用效率改进的动态演_省略_制研究_基于省域

()1989200531,,:,;,;,F22410ATheResearchesonDynamicEvolutionMechanismbetweenChinaRegionalEconomicGrowthandEnergyUsingEfficiencyAbstract:Thispaperusesthespatialeconometricmodelanditscorrelationin2dex,paneldataunitrootandcointegrationtestwiththirtyoneprovincialdatafrom1989to20051Theresultsshow:Theregionalenergyusingefficiencieshaveobviousspatialcorrelationonthespacedistribution,butnottherandomstate1Thereexiststheinternalfunctionalmechanismoftheregionalenergyefficienciesandthelongstableequilibriumamongenergyefficiencieseconomicgrowthindustrialadjust2mentpopulationtechnicaldevelopment,andithasobviousshortmodifiedandvolatilityeffect1Keywords:EnergyEfficiency;SpatialCorrelation;PanelData;EvolutionaryMechanism3(05JC790104)(01JAZJD790004),20102000,20%414%,19782006,1978GDP151774198,4118%,,,,,200631,GDP,414%(5125%),315%,(1151%);GDP,414%(5101%5115%),(11161%10161%7104%),20%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Charles(2004)Hondroyian2nis(2002)Soytas(2003)Yang(2000)GDP,,ChangYoungho(2003)Granger(2003,2004),(2005)Granger,(2005)(2006),(2007)STR(2007)31,,,,,420089:2006GDP,2007712,,,11(1),,,,:GDPGDP,EFFit,,,,,,,,,,,,(Baltagi,2005):EFFit=GDP1iitPOP2iite(i+3istrit+it)(i=1,,31;t=1,,17)(1)GDPitPOPitstritit(1989)(,,70%,)1i2i();i;3ieffit=lnEFFit,gdpit=lnGDPit,popit=lnPOPit(1):effit=i+1igdpit+2ipopit+3istrit+vit(2),(2)Y=X+U,YXUi1i2i3i,,(2)(2),,,3119892005effit,1,,,,:711718,7198195166185,,,,()(),,,1effit,,,711718,,131(19892005)effit21(1),,,,,(2):Y=w1Y+X+UU=w2U+N(0,2In)(3),Y,X,U,w1w2,Inn:0,==0,M1,,,;0,0,0,M2,,,;=0,0,0,M3,,;==0,(3),(2),,OLSCliffOrd(1981)ML,Anselin(1988,2005)Lee(2004)ML,,,,620089(3)MoranI,:MoranIGeary(Anselin,2005),,,MoranI,MoranI,:moranI=(ewe)(ee)(4)e(3)U,wnnCliffOrd(1981),MoranI,:E(moranI)=tr(Pw)(n-k)D(moranI)=[tr(PwPw)+tr(Pw)2+(tr(Pw))2]d-E2(I)P=I-X(XX)-1X,d=(n-k)(n-k-2),k,n,n,z(d)=(moranI-E(moranI))D(moranI),WaldLRLM,Anselin(2005)31,,,,1,0,1,w1=w2=w,4(20022005)M1M2M3,11200220052002200320042005M1M2M3M1M2M3M1M2M3M1M2M301990136019901310199012901990133t11519117911012114910411114210612115711011101019811010198110111001100t21941186215911862159118621071188618210108712710110715710129712110126t3161191213167181903181181333157171681-0145-0160-0147-0161-0148-0162-0141-0156t-2196-4163-3101-4157-2195-4159-2153-4111201070113010901140110011501070113t115811040170111201711114014911927()2002200320042005M1M2M3M1M2M3M1M2M3M1M2M3321322168212821582108214011561191t21572194215621912140218211802122ŠR2014301660161014001640161014101640161014101620158:M1(0,==0);M2(0,0,0);M3(=0,0,0)ŠR2(1)M1,0199,t100,,,20022005,,,,,,,,,(2)M2,(13t3157-21531180,5%1196),,,,(2t1158,),,,M2,(3)M2M3,(20022005,M30161016101610158M20166016401640162),M2(0136013101290133,),,M2M3,,,30%2moranI,:,M2z(d)p-01972(01166)-11000(01159)-01963(01168)-01877(01190),10%;M3z(d)p-21446(01007)-21643(01004)-21611(01005)-21376(01009),1%,,M3,,820089,,,M2z(d)p,(M3),,2M2M320022003200420052002200320042005moranI(10-4)30027030038010108008101070E(moranI)(10-4)13601360134013101510152015001480D(moranI)(10-4)11912012011041179714218198421978Z(d)-01972-11000-01963-01877-21446-21643-21611-21376p0116601159011680119001007010040100501009,,,,11,AbuafJorion(1990),LevinLin(1993)(LL),,MaddalaWu(1999)ImPersaranShin(2002)(IPS),,LLIPS,:i()ADF:effit=i+ieffi,t-1+pij=1ijeffi,t-j+itti(3)it,H0:1==N=0(N=31)()t-NT=N-1Ni=1ti(pi)ti,E[tiT(pi,0)],Var[tiT(pi,0)]ti(IPS),:t-=N[t-NT-N-1Ni=1E(tiT(pi,0)i=0)]N-1Ni=1Var(tiT(pi,0)i=0)]N(0,1)(5)(2)IPS,:,pi1943,4t-10%5%1%;p0,,4I(1),3::pi=1pi=2pi=3pi=4pi=1pi=2pi=3pi=4eff-01121-01842-11287333-1175533-01614-11273333-01876-11516333eff-418733-410443-213883-2114233-216953-2120433-2100933-2112133gdp513884155841352618612136611279-11232-01724gdp-618863-610203-417313-817503-417793-510503-215433-319163pop-1146033301144018400162741842616677188441653pop-215573-1193933-213583-1195833-513223-2105333-213893-2101533str-01617-01802-01768-0161811353115990188411265str-410443-1182933-1192433-1194633-216563-1193033-1193133-2110533:333333IPS10%5%1%21LMPhilipsHansen(1990)(FMOLS),McCoskeyKao(1998),FMOLSLM,FMOLSLM:i,qit=gdpit,popit,strit,i=1i,2i,3i,(2):effit=i+qiti+vit,qit=qi,t-1+it,vit=it+uit,it=i,t-1+uit:uitiid(0,2u)vit,:effit=i+qiti+tj=1uij+uit=i+qiti+eit=0,,eitI(0),effit,gdpit,popit,strit,eitI(1),FMOLS,wit=uit,it,wit=limT1TE(Tt=1wit)(Tt=1wit)=++=¢21¢12¢2122,=limT1TT-1k=1Tt=k+1E(witwi,t-k)=11122122,=limT1TTt=1E(witwit)=1122122=+=11122122,¢21,2=¢21-¢12-122¢21,eff3it=effit-¢^12^-122it,FMOLS:0120089i,FM=[^i^i]=(XiXi)-1(Xieff3i-T3^)(6)Xi=(IT,qi)T4,IT1T1;=(0,1,1);3^=^21-^22^-122¢^21S32it=tj=1e3ij,e3ij=eff3ij-Xi,FM,¢^1,2¢1,2,FMOLS:LM3=(NT2)-1Ni=1Tt=1S32it¢^21,2]N(v,N-12v)(7)LM=N(LM3-v)]N(0,2v),v=E(10w(r)2dr),2v=Var(10w(r)2dr)(w(r))LM,p,,(1,i)=(1,^i,^1i,^2i,^3i)FMOLS,,44FMOLS^i^1i^2i^3i^i^1i^2i^3i11513-0143-01841111t2150-1178-01711188173163-0112-01482108t1192-2120-015561932-1014-013921940154t-1194-317721741198184134-012401151195t2168-2150111011953-1215-0150-21701106t-1189-5124-21291198191312-011001201132t2118-2108-113511934-1614-1101-31395121t-2102-2118-11563126204152-0124-01190136t1194-2159-1119118250164-0199-01982127t2106-2132-0