我国可再生能源产业发展机制和政策研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文我国可再生能源产业发展机制和政策研究姓名：詹吉英申请学位级别：硕士专业：技术经济及管理指导教师：顾孟迪20060101120061172123Onthebasisofanalyzingthesupplytrendandcurrentconsumptionsituationofconventionalenergy(mainlypetroleumandcoal)inChinaandtheworldasawhole,thispaperexpoundstheissueofenergysecurityandenvironmentprotectioninChinabroughtbyconventionalenergy.Aftermakinganalysisofthepositiveeffectsofrenewableenergy,thepaperproposesthatdevelopingtherenewableenergyindustryistheeffectiveapproachtothetwobottle-neckproblemsofenergysecurityandenvironmentpollution.Chinaconfrontssuchfouraspectsofobstaclesascost,capital,marketandpolicy,whichprovidefoundationforchoosingindustrytodevelopandthinkingoutdevelopingmechanismandpolicies.Investmentandfinancingisasignificantfactorwhichpreventthe4developmentofrenewableenergyindustryinChina.Throughanalyzingthecurrentsituationandproblemsofinvestmentandfinancinginourcountryaswellassummarizingtherichexperienceatabroad,thepaperindicatesthatourcountryshouldestablishcommonwealthfundassoonaspossibleandimprovethesystemofinvestmentandfinancingfromtheaspectsoffinancingchannel,scale,term,managementinstitutionandcapitalmanagementandsupervision.Inaddition,thepaperputsforwardaconceptof“Thethirdpartyfinancing”andanalyzeitsfeasibilityandpossibilityofadoption.ThepaperproposesthatthepolicyofrenewableenergyindustryinChinashouldbemulti-objectiveandsupportivefortheindustrydevelopmentwiththeconsiderationofourcountry’scondition.Thissystemisanintegratedframeworkconsistingofobjective,pricing,transaction,selectingandcompensationmechanisms.Thepaperclassifiessuchpoliciesasobjectiveprogramming,quotasystem,fixedelectricityprice,socialbenefitpricing,governmentbuying,bidding,governmentlicensing,greencertificatetransaction,dischargerighttransaction,economicincentivepoliciesandsystembenefitchargingintofivecategoriesaccordingtotheuniquecharacteristicsofthefivemechanismsmentionedabovewhileconductingdetailedexplanationsofallthesepolicies.Inaddition,thepaperemphasizestheimportanceandnecessityofdesigningcorrespondinglegislationsand5rulestoensuretheimplementationprogress.Finally,thepapermakessummaryofthemainconclusions,featuresandlimitationsofthisproject.Thefeaturesofthispaperarethat:First,conductingresearchonthesupplyandconsumptiontrendinChinaunderthewholeworldbackground;Second,analyzingtheimpactofrenewableenergyindustrypoliciesonresourcesandenvironmentprotectionwithadoptionofoptionpricingtheory,analyzingtwodifferentkindsofrealoptionfromtheperspectivesofgreenelectricityproducerandconsumersandpricingthemrespectively;Third,pricingthesocialbenefitofrenewableenergybynotonlyestablishingintegratedassessingsystembutalsoconductingprimaryquantifying;Fourth,establishingaintegratedpolicyandmechanismsystemofrenewableenergyindustrydevelopment,andextendingdetaileddemonstrationsfromfiveaspects;Fifth,pricingthedischargerightofconventionalenergyelectricity,andproposingdifferenttransactionpricingmodelundertheconditionofbothcompleteandincompletecompetitivemarket;Sixth,adoptinggovernmentbuyinginthedevelopmentofrenewableenergyindustry,theconceptandmechanismofwhichisnotonlynovelbutvaluableforreferenceaswell.ConventionalEnergy,EnergySecurity,EnvironmentProtection,RenewableEnergy,MechanismandPolicy,RealOption61/31/41993200419926166199712162008201219905%7,81.180003001112015-2020200512WTI21060OPECOPECOPEC1/32/3OPEC2OPEC10OPEC1.6%199960%200366%OPEC470048009OPEC1.72004OPEC2003OPECOPECOPECOPECUSGSOPEC20102015OPEC”200412OPEC100/20051302005OPECEIA2004OPEC6.3%100-15036%20033EIAUSGS,1102002251.7%1.694.8%14.840.12005200370%MengdiGu200510-151014%2010201520202.963.64.5,20042199319951.5820022.462003200.94.5200540%MengdiGu200520056.73.2200520204.52.555%50%201080%3,90%,,5000,111,1.21.2.110753981300262297088%630.9175%2003200520051.2.21214500087.4%2.8%0.3%9.5%58.8%3.4%1.3%36.5%20047000175020001900200ThecomparisonofcoalreservesandreserveexplorationratebetweenChinaandtheworld//%/%10588100.0218189117.992213902004GDPGDP200065.19%201058.14%,20007.05142.12.1.119093%200269416450680-70010%20043380%200460%MengdiGu200450%1522-12-1Figure2-1:TheimpactofrisingoilpriceonChina’seconomy162004826GDP1993-2000GDP1%0.01199910.38%GDP0.07200064%GDP0.720008.8600135022/31/5620041-71281527.1%1456.440.2%3,Alhajji20041..20049262...20048311770Alhajji2.1.22.23..20048264...200522182.2.12-12002%Thecomparisonofenergyconsumptionstructureamongvariouscountries,2002(%)24.639.047.635.938.62.726.213.714.922.666.524.220.74.925.75.62.54.05.81.8.2-2ThecomparisonofCO2dischargebetweenChinaandUSA2000Mt-C%%2020Mt-C%6422100985010088113.724.5169217.2158024.611.5208021.1.192.2.2203.112/30.6MJ/m22.53kW1.27kW7tce110tce1.9kW0.22kW0.17kW1.5kW(2004)2213.23.2.119010kW2.3kWh1815502.76SO21403NOx1035CO226.520041949-199928830KWh15SO22700CO27.32002)21380%650%2223.2.2207080(RealOptions)Poss23()3-1Thecomparisonofrenewableenergyrealoption,financialoptionandgeneralrealoptionNPVNPVNPV24NPV5NPVNPVCNPVNPVT+=1NPV3.2.3l25SC1m2m1s2sSC111SdzSdtdSsm+=1222CdzCdtdCsm+=21dz2dz0S0C(1)(2)ItottStC),(~)/ln(2110ttNSStsm3),(~)/ln(2220ttNCCtsm4tStCtStC)(tSE)(tCE)21exp()(2110ttS