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254200712ARIDMETEOROLOGYVol.25No.4Dec,2007:1006-7639(2007)-04-0062-0645a,,(,036002):196120056,,45a:45a,2070,0.43/10a;;2090,,198715,1995,:;;:P468.0+21:A:2007-10-22;:2007-11-12:(1969-),,,,.,,3,,,[1],[2],40a[3],[4]15a,645a,,1619612005,,19722005,122356891119712000,,3,22.1(1),20119612005Fig.1MeanannualairtemperaturechangeinShuozhouduring1961-200560,7090,,1998,45a,0.43/10a,0.78/10a,0.44/10a,0.26/10a,0.32/10a11961200541,2060(45a1196120054(:)Tab.1MeanseasonalandannualairtemperatureinShuozhouineverydecadeduring1961-2005(Unit:)196119707.419.76.1-10.75.8197119807.920.26.6-9.06.5198119908.120.16.6-9.16.5199120008.720.77.1-7.77.2200120059.321.07.2-8.07.4196120058.320.46.8-8.76.7,),7080,9015a(19912005,)30a(19712000,)1.0,1.1,0.8,0.7,1.8,209015a,,2.2(2),,2080,2,,6080,,80,1988,199815a1993,14a,0.5/10a,20.86/10a0.51/10a;20.36/10a0.34/10a219612005Fig.2MeanannualminimumairtemperatureinShuozhouduring1961-2005196120054,22196120054(:)Tab.2MeanseasonalandannualminimumairtemperatureinShuozhouineverydecadeduring1961-2005(Unit:)19611970-0.113.2-0.1-17.1-0.9197119800.513.70.5-15.2-0.2198119900.513.70.2-15.6-0.3199120001.314.40.8-14.20.6200120052.214.81.5-13.71.2196120050.914.00.6-15.00.2364:45a2,30a,15a1.3,1.3,1.0,0.8,2.0,2.319612005(3),,206070,80,15a19921993,13a,19981960,4,,0.36/10a,0.61/10a,,,0.26/10a196120054(3),209015.7,80319612005Fig.3MeanannualmaximumairtemperatureinShuozhouduring1961-200513.3,2.415a30a0.9,1.4,0.9,0.7,0.6903196120054(:)Tab.3MeanseasonalandannualmaximumairtemperatureinShuozhouineverydecadeduring1961-2005(Unit:)1961197015.026.313.5-2.913.11971198015.326.513.8-1.413.61981199015.726.614.1-0.913.81991200016.027.214.40.014.42001200516.527.314.3-1.014.31961200515.726.814.1-1.113.93,,[5],,19712000-8.6,-8.6,1961200545a22,198715,45a4WMO,2,2,44a,,10a1.3[6]45a44,45a6,1(3)1972,1985,1995,,2090,4625445a(:)Tab.4HeavywarmandcoolyearinShuozhouinthelatest45years(Unit:)19631974-3.3199819992.419661967-3.5319671968-6.3319701971-2.519711972-3.5319831984-2.3:355.1,5,5,7,7,8,9469,,19812006(69,)19981999200520.5;198218.220902002;2080,0.5/10a,,,41981200669Fig.4MeanairtemperaturevariationfromJunetoSeptemberinmaizeareaofShuozhouduring1981-20065.219812006(5),,504g/m2;,[7]()20%,[8]69,(5),9=0.05,9=0.059,106890.2520.2570.341,=0.1(6),,,;,,9,,69,=0.1,69(6):Y=-81.912T2+3244.1T-31546569Tab.5ThecorrelativecoefficientsbetweenmaizeoutputandairtemperaturefromJunetoSeptemberinShuozhou67890.25-0.12-0.090.10-0.020.160.130.210.210.2570.3410.4440.0550.3410.42564:45a5.3,19912006197120001.82.01.4,,,,;,;,,,;,,,,,,,;,,,,5.4,19872006019611986110,10105,,,,5.5,20%25%,,,,,,,,,,,,1998,12,,,5.6,,,,,1,4%,3.6d,,4%,,,,6(1)45a,15a15a30a1.01.3,66250.9,,1.4(2)198715,1995,10a4510a(3),,(4),,,,:[1],.[J].,1994,20(12):19-25.[2],,.40[J].,1994,20(5):36-41.[3],,,.40a[J].,2004,22(4):32.[4],.[J].,2006,24(3):30.[5].[J].,2005,(1):63.[6],,,.[J].,1999():43-53.[7].[M].:,1991.[8].[M].:,1997.TemperatureVariationCharacteristicofShuozhouinRecent45YearsandItsEffectsonAgriculturalProductionLIURuilan,WUZhanhua,HANHong(ShuozhouMeteorologicalBureauofShanxiProvince,Shuozhou036002,China)Abstract:Basedontheannualaverageairtemperaturedataduring1961-2005fromsixstationsinShuozhou,theairtemperaturechangecharacteristicswereanalyzedstatisticallywithmethodssuchasclimateinclinationrateandslidingaverageinrecent45years.Theresultindicatedthatduringthepast45years,theannualmeantemperature,theannualmeanmaximumtemperatureandtheannu2almeanminimumtemperaturepresentedanuptrendsincethemiddleofthe1970s,andtheannualmeantemperaturerosewiththerateof0.43/10a,inaddition,themeanminimumtemperatureriseovertoppedthemeanmaximumtemperatureobviously.Thisuptrendisacceleratedtosomeextentafterthe1990s,especiallyobviousinwinterstemperature.Therehavebeen15warmwinterssince1987inShuozhou,withthemosttypicalonesoccurringafter1995.Theplantdiseasesandinsectpeststendedtobemoreseriouswithcli2matewarming,soitisnecessarytostudyhowtoensurehighproductionandqualityofthelocalagriculture.Keywords:climatechange;warmwinter;agriculturalproduction764:45a