我国碳排放的影响因素分析及能源价格政策研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文我国碳排放的影响因素分析及能源价格政策研究姓名：刘伟锋申请学位级别：硕士专业：产业经济学指导教师：赵旭20090101II1984-2006III6.643IVFACTORANALYSISONCARBONEMISSIONSANDSTUDIESONENERGYPRICEPOLICYINCHINAABSTRACTTogetherwithitspotentialadverseimpactsontheearthandthehumankind,theglobalclimatechange,whichispartiallycausedbythegreenhousegaseswithcarbondioxideasthemostpartchargedbyhumanbeings,hasbeendrawnmuchattentionfromallovertheworld.Chinahasalreadybeenthesecondlargestcarbondioxideemitterandenergyconsumption,whichisthemaincontributortocarbondioxideemissions,isshootingupandhasabottleneckeffectoneconomicdevelopmentinrecentyears.Carbondioxidereductionisnotonlyanenvironmenttechnicalproblem,butalsoaninternationalpoliticalfocusinthenegotiationsofglobalclimatechange.However,fundamentally,itisaneconomicissue.Thedissertationaimsatfactorsinvolvedincarbondioxideemissions,andthenputsforwardpoliciesonenergysavingandcarbonreduction,inwhichtheenergypricepolicyispaidmuchattentionto.Thethesisquantifiesthecontributionsofeachpre-definedfactors,whicharefixedbasedonadecompositionmodelatfirst,tothechangeofcarbondioxideemissionsoverthelasttwentyyears.Inthesefactorsenergyefficiencyisfurtherfocusedandregressionmodelsarebuilttoanalyzetheimpactofenergypricesonenergyefficiency,whichVintroducesthediscussionofenergypricepolicy.Lastly,aninput-outputmodelisusedtoanalyzetheinfluencesofchangesofenergypricesonconsumerpriceindexaswellasothersectors.Theinnovationshereincludes:(1)inthedecompositionmodel,energyconsumptionofproductionandenergyconsumptionoflivingarecombinedwhileenergystructureandindustrialstructureareintegrated;(2)theeffectsofenergypricesonenergyefficiencyareanalyzedinbothproductionandliving;(3)aninput-outputmodelisintroducedtoquantifytheimpactsofchangesinenergypricesonconsumerpriceindexaswellasothersectors;(4)thebiggestinnovationisareasonableresearchframeworkwhichintegratedthethreepartsabove.Theempiricalstudiesshowthateconomicincreaseandenergyintensityarethetwomostimportantfactorsaffectingcarbondioxideemissionsovertheperiod1984-2006,theformerofwhichdecreasedthecarbondioxideemissionslargelywhilethelatterofwhichincreasedtheemissionsevenmoregreatly.Moreover,thereislessandlessroomforthedeclineofenergyintensitypromotedbytechnologicalprogressesinthefieldofenergy.Industrialstructureandenergystructurearekeystoenergysavingandcarbonreductioninthefuture.TherearegreatimprovementsintheadjustmentofindustrialstructurewhichcanbemadetosaveenergyandreducecarbonemissionswhileenergystructureisdependantonenergyendowmentsinChinatoalargedegree.Energyintensityinproductioniselasticandtherearesubstitutionsbetweenenergyandcapital,energyandlabor.Intermsofconsumption,theelasticityofenergyconsumptionoflivingpercapitatoenergypricesispositive,althoughitislackofelasticity.Theriseofenergypricesimprovestheenergyefficiencyinbothenergyintensityandlivingconsumption.Andwiththereformofstate-ownedenterprisesandthedevelopmentofprivateenterprises,therearegreaterincentivesforthemtoreducethecostinenergyconsumption.Tobeconcluded,themarket-basedreformofenergypriceswillbeastrategicpolicyonenergysavingandcarbonreductioninthefuture.TheimpactsofenergypricesonconsumerpriceindexaswellasothersectorsaretransmittedthroughtherelationshipsamongsectorsandtherearecleardistinctionsbecauseofVIdifferentenergytypes.Onconsumerpriceindex,thechangeofelectricitypricehasthelargestimpactof6.64followedbythechangeofoilproductprice,andtheimpactsofcoalandoilarethesmallest,approximatelyreaching3.Theeffectsoftheriseofenergypricesonenterprisesandhouseholdscannotbeneglected.Consequently,themarket-basedreformofenergypricesshouldbeimplementedstepbystep.Beforeenergypricesarefullyliberalized,avarietyofpoliciescanbecarriedouttoaffectenergypriceslocallybyregionorsector.KEYWORDS:carbondioxideemission,energyconsumption,energyintensity,decompositionmethod,input-outputmethod,pricepolicy11.1(1)1992(UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange)[1]200019901997(KyotoProtocol)[2]2008-201219981-11980-20052005192120012020-20252008331442009201221-1Fig.1-1Proportionsofcarbondioxideemissionsinsomemaincountries(2)20012007200196.78%1-21978-2006Fig.1-2EnergyconsumptioninChinaover1978-20061978-200620072007050000100000150000200000250000300000197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006320011-31980-2006Fig.1-3CarbondioxideemissionsinChinaover1980-2006[3]41.21.(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)2.(1)(2)3.51.31-4Fig.1-4Aresearchframework61.4(1)(2)(3)Fisher-Vanden(4)(5)1.51984-2006CobbDouglas71989-2006312002-200520024282.1GDP207080902-1[4]92-1--Fig.2-1DevelopmentofEnergy-Environment-EconomyModelsEKCEnvironmentalKuznetsCurveUEKC2.22070EhrlichHoldren[5]Commoner10IPATPATI=IImpactPPopulationAAffluenceTTechnologyPATI=Kaya1990[6]IPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange)KayaPPGDPGDPEECC***=ECGDPEGDPPGDPGDPPGDPKayaIPATKayaAng1997[7]∑=ijiijiiiijEEYEYYUZZiijjUijijYYiiiiYEiiijEEijIEASchipper2001[8]∑∑===ninjijiiFISAG1113CanWang2005[9]1957-2000GDPPPYYTETEFEFECC****=2006[10]1995-2004∑∑==iiiiiPPYYE