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:20070829;:20071210:(1973),,,,我国能源效率变化趋势的影响因素分析董利(,100836):随着国内外经济的快速发展,能源不足日益成为经济可持续发展的重要瓶颈,这使得提高能源使用效率越来越受到各国政府和企业的关注本文基于中国30省区1998~2004年面板数据分析了能源效率变化趋势,考察了我国能源效率(能源强度倒数)与经济发展之间是否满足U型曲线关系研究证实这种U型关系的确存在,并发现在国内的政治经济体制和发展模式的影响下,我国能源强度的拐点出现在人均GDP较低的水平上同时,本文实证考察了产业结构对外开放市场化程度能源消费结构等一系列因素对能源强度的影响,发现这些因素对能源效率变化有着重要的影响此外,基于本文的主要结论给出了一些政策性建议:能源效率;能源强度;经济发展:F206:A:16719301(2008)01000811,,1978,198015/20045/,,,2004(2000)22.6/,12070,200063!,200413.4/,8(双月刊)2008年第1期(总第32期)15.4/16.3/16.9/,,2006∀#GDP,,,,,,:(1),U,,,,,∃%U(2),,,U,,,,,;,,[1],U[2],Jnicke[3],;Galli[4]1973~1990,UJudsonSchmalenseeStoker[5]MedlockSoligo[6],GrossmanKrueger[7],,;Phillip[8]Sub-SaharanAfrica38Phillip[8]GDPU;38()U,U,U,,,IanSueWingeta.l[9]2040,,,80RebeccaDavid[10],,,;,,,9INDUSTRAILECONOMCISRESEARCH,,,,[11]:(1),[12]1980~2003,,1980~1990;1991~2001;2002~2003,[13],1998~2000;[14]1993(2),[15]1993~2003,(3)[16][17]KarenFisher-Vanden[18],,,,:()(),,,,(),,,[12,13,15](),,:(1),,,,1998~2004,(2),,:∃%,,,,GDPU,()UU,Galli[4]lnEEit=cit+lnpergdpit+lnpergdp2it+eit(1),EEit(),;pergdpitGDP(1997),eiti,t,301998~200410董利我国能源效率变化趋势的影响因素分析(),∀#∀#,20012001200220012002,,Hausman,Hausmanchi2,Hausman,,11GDPTTLnPergdp-0.53***-3.561.23***13.78LnPergdp20.06***7.610.84***10.761.081.360.87***10.200.77***9.842002-0.04***-4.021.04***11.032003-0.10***-5.830.82***16.962004-0.18***-7.461.15***12.281.19***14.120.000.060.65***5.480.13***3.850.81***8.630.43***6.120.151.22-0.16-1.890.82***8.680.23**2.610.75***7.850.16**2.740.38***3.560.44***5.660.101.110.49***6.68-0.33*-2.48(dropped)0.21**2.660.87***16.11R20.968-0.78***16.02Waldchi24252-0.91***10.05Probchi20.000-1.14***20.57注:表中***和***系数分别表示在10%5%和1%水平上显著,GDP,1%;,1%,,GDPU,GDPU,,GDPU(t),U,,GDP,Galli[4]4000(1985)MedlockSoligo[6]28,3000(1985),,,,,2002~2004,2002-0.0442004-0.1811INDUSTRAILECONOMCISRESEARCH,2002,,GDPU;GDP∃%,,GDP,(一)模型设定和变量说明,:lnEEi,t=+Xi,t+i+!t+∀i,t(2),t,i,i,!t,,∀i,t,,EEi,t,t;Xi,t,(2):(1),()()(),()(),(),,;()(),,,,()(2),,/GDP/GDP,,,,,(3):,∀#(20012002);,;(4),,,,,,,,;,(5)12董利我国能源效率变化趋势的影响因素分析east,mid2EE(/)pergdpGDP()Ind2GDP(%)Ind3GDP(%)NERI(0~10)Rsoe(%)Rfi(%)Open=/GDP(%)Exgdp=/GDP(%)ImGDP=/GDP(%)RCoal/(/)RElect/(/)EastEast=1if;east=0Mid=1if;mid=01998~200430,,GDP,33Ln(EE)-0.5270.326-1.8860.492210Ln(PerGDP)9.01810.9597.7620.598210IND20.4500.5950.1980.070210IND30.3800.6220.2900.058210RCOAL0.9702.3060.4000.307210RELECT0.0950.1570.0480.023210EXGDP0.1500.9930.0010.183210IMGDP0.1430.9670.0030.193210NERI5.919.742.341.51210RSOE59.4889.8813.1119.62210(二)估计结果和分析EviewsRedundantFixedEffectsHausman,,,,,white413INDUSTRAILECONOMCISRESEARCH被解释变量:能源效率412345678Log(Rjgdp)0.634***(5.39)0.716***(12.810.683***(5.86)0.717***(6.12)0.613***(4.79)0.672***(5.279)0.838***(5.279)0.808***(5.946)Recoal0.247**(2.675)0.25*(2.29)0.224**(2.484)0.247(1.81)0.216*(2.179)0.240**(2.464)0.226**(2.367)0.234**(2.428)Relect5.300***(8.058)5.19***(5.03)5.715***(8.408)5.187***(8.03)5.073***(7.09)4.971***(7.08)5.581***(7.652)5.456***(7.300)Ind2-1.385(-1.77)-1.548**(-2.415)Ind2*east-2.33*(-2.30)-2.002*(-2.174)Ind2*mid-1.13(-1.24)-1.227(-1.700)Ind2*west-1.39*(-2.03)-1.756**(-2.309)Ind3-0.44(-0.51)-0.62(-0.70)-0.869(-1.220)-0.883(-1.231)Exgdp-0.647**(-2.468)-0.655*(-2.190)-0.600(-1.915)Imgdp0.247**(2.55)0.278(1.193)0.292(1.234)Rsoe0.005**(2.63)0.006**(2.63)0.006**(2.73)0.006**(2.824)NERI0.031*(2.125)0.037**(2.551)0.030*(2.027)0.028(1.754)-7.165***(-6.689)-6.72***(-8.62)-7.393***(-6.953)-8.032***(-7.280)6.394**(2.77)-7.852***(-6.513)-8.296***(-6.607)-7.980***(-6.092)R20.97920.98070.98000.98010.98200.98210.98440.985F163(0.000)84(0.000)159(0.000)136(0.000)103(0.000)107(0.000)74(0.000)58(0.000)Chi2705(0.000)577(0.000)702(0.000)669(0.000)557(0.000)565(0.000)508(0.000)470(0.000)F3.47(0.003)2.89(0.010)3.39(0.003)2.940.00933.60.00423.280.00783.160.00972.540.0311Chi224(0.000)20(0.002)23(0.000)20.76(0.000)22(0.000)19(0.001)190.0013160.0060F1370.000070(0.000)1350.00001140.0000890.0000920.0000690.0000520.0000Chi27170.0000579(0.000)7060.00006710.00005600.00005680.00005240.00004770.0000HausmanChi27.07(0.0697)-1.32(0.062)8.490.131122.240.000224.800.0001290.0000350.0001390.0001注:(1)括号内数值为稳健性估计下的t统计量表中的***和***系数分别表示在10%5%和1%水平上显著(2)模型2中Hausman检验的chi2值为负,表明Hausman检验失效为了便于比较,本文也采用了固定效应模型估计回归结果14董利我国能源效率变化趋势的影响因素分析4,8,1~8R20.97~0.99,,,98%,:1.2GDP0.613~0.838,1%,GDP1,0.613~0.838,,,,,,,2.12,,,,,,1.32~1.548,;,,,2090,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,28,,10%;,,,,,3.,,,,5%37~8,-0.655~-0.600,0.247~0.292,,;,1,0.600~0.65515INDUSTRAILECONOMCISRESEARCH,,,,,,,,,,,,-0.003,,0.003,,,,,,(0.556);,1998~2004,0.045%,,,,;,,,4.,1%,5%,0.216~0.247;4.971~5.715,,,,,,0.1229/,0.611~0.702,,,0.2857~0.9714/,0.247,,,5.,(NERI),10%0.028~0.037NERI,,,;,,,(Rsoe),5%,,0.005~0.00616董利我国能源效率变化趋势的影响因素分析,,,,,,,,,,,;,;,,;,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:[1]NAKICENOVICeta.l.Specialreportonemissionsscenarios:reportofworkinggroupIIIoftheIntergovernmentalpanelonclimatechange.CambridgeUniversityPress.,1998.[2]KUZNETSSIMON.Economicgrowthandincomeinequality[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1955,45(March).[3]JNICKEM,MONCHH,RANNEBERGT,SIMONISUE.Structuralchangeandenvironmentalimpact.Empiricaleviden