毕马威：中国能源分析报告

China’sEnergySector:AclearerviewINDUSTRIALMARKETS1China’sEnergySector:AclearerviewContents2Introduction4Upstreamoilandgas:Focusonperformanceandefficiencies8Oilandgasinfrastructure:Redrawingthemap12Thecoalsector:Bedrockoftheeconomy16Powergeneration:Thebalancingact20Renewableenergy:Windsofchange24Conclusions26AboutKPMG27Contactus©2009KPMG,aHongKongpartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperative.Allrightsreserved.2China’sEnergySector:AclearerviewIntroductionPeterFungPartnerinChargeIndustrialMarketsKPMGChinaThegrowingsophisticationofChina’sindustrialbaseandtherisingpowerofdomesticconsumersarecriticalfactorsshapingChina’senergyneeds.AsChina’sexportmarketsweaken,domesticconsumptionisbecomingamorecriticaldriverofgrowth.NoothereconomyinhistoryhasdevelopedunderthekindofinternationalscrutinythatChinafacestoday.Inparticular,thisscrutinyhasfocusedonthecountry’senvironmentalrecordanditsglobalambitionstosecureenergyandnaturalresources.Asmanyas350millionadditionalpeopleareexpectedtoinhabitChina’scitiesinthecomingdecades1andthiswillrequireextensiveinvestmentsintheenergysector.China,liketheUnitedStates,BritainandGermany,hasreliedoncoaltogeneratethepoweritneedstodriveitseconomicgrowth.Butasthisreportshows,Chinaisdiversifyingitsenergysourcesbyadoptingrenewableenergiesandapplyingclean-burningtechnologiestocoal-firedpowerplants.TheinterplaybetweendifferentenergysourcesinChina,notleastthecontinuedrelianceoncoalforpowergeneration,needtobefullyunderstoodbeforeonecanconsiderhowthesectormaydevelopinthefuture.1“PreparingforChina’surbanbillion,”McKinseyGlobalInstitute,March2008©2009KPMG,aHongKongpartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperative.Allrightsreserved.3China’sEnergySector:AclearerviewChina’sauthoritiesareacutelyawareofthecountry’senvironmentalchallengesanditsdependenceonenergyimports.Theyrecognisethatonewaytomanagetheseissueswillbethroughgreaterefficiencyandinnovationinallareasoftheenergysector.TheyhavealsorecognisedthatthereareopportunitiestoattractinvestmentthroughtheKyotoProtocol’sCleanDevelopmentMechanism.Thisincreasinglycomplexbackdropofpolicyandinvestmentconsiderationsismakingitanevergreaterchallengeforcompaniesandplannerstobuildamodernandintegratedenergyinfrastructure.ThefollowingKPMGreportsharesourobservationsonkeytrendsineachareaoftheenergysector,fromupstreamoilandgasthroughtopowergeneration.Wehopeyouwillfinditparticularlyrelevantinlightoftherecentdevelopmentsintheworldeconomy.Asalways,wewouldwelcometheopportunitytodiscussourfindingswithyou.©2009KPMG,aHongKongpartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperative.Allrightsreserved.4China’sEnergySector:AclearerviewUpstreamoilandgas:FocusonperformanceandefficienciesMorethananyotherfactor,China’sthirstforoilandpetroleumproductshasshapedthecountry’srecentenergypolicy,particularlyasitsrelianceonimportshasincreasedsincethemid1990s.Forthisreason,itislogicaltostartanyassessmentofChina’senergysectorbylookingatupstreamoilandgasdevelopments.Chinahasneverbeenanespeciallyresource-richnation,relativetothesizeofitspopulation.However,ifoilconsumptioncontinuesrisingatrecentlevels,Chinaislikelytoimportasmuchasthree-quartersofitsoilneedsby2025.2Inthiscontext,sustainingoutputfromdomesticreserveshasbeenanincreasingchallenge,whichhasledtoagreaterfocusonperformancebythedomesticoilgiantsPetroChina(thelistedentityofChinaNationalPetroleumCorp)andSinopec(thelistedentityofChinaPetroleumandChemicalCorp).Bothhavealreadysettargetstoenhancethesustainabilityandefficiencyofproduction,whiletakingstepstorestructureandconsolidateupstreamdivisionsmoreefficiently.3Thecountry’sachievementsinmaintainingdomesticproductionlevelsareimpressiveconsideringthatseveralofthelargestindividualoilfieldsareapproachingdepletion.Untilthe1990s,ChinacouldcomfortablyrelyonoutputfromarelativelylimitednumberofestablishedfieldsinthenortheastaswellasfurthersouthinShandongprovince.Thelargestofthese,theDaqingfieldinHeilongjiang,hasbeenexploitedcontinuouslyforalmostfivedecades.2 TheEnergyInformationAdministrationforecastsconsumptiontodoubleto15.7millionbarrelsperdayin2030comparedto7.58millionperdayin2007.TheChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesalsopredictsthatthecountrywillconsume563milliontonsofcrudeoilin2020,whichis62.5percentmoreover2006;see“China’soilconsumptiontohit563Mtonsin2020,”ChinaDaily,April20083 ChinaMiningAssociation:“CNPC,Sinopecintegrateupstreamsectortosharpencompetitiveedge,report,”10March2008©2009KPMG,aHongKongpartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational,aSwisscooperative.Allrightsreserved.5China’sEnergySector:AclearerviewFigure1:GrowingdependenceoncrudeoilThousandbarrelsperday12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00001996Netimports2015F19971998199920002001200220032004200520072010F2006Importdependence69.4percent,2015Importdependence58.3percent,2010Importdependence46.0percent,2007CrudeoilproductionSour