旅行和旅游业(1)

TravelandTourismF.X.MurrayOverviewoftheTravelandTourismIndustry,itsimportancetotheglobaleconomyandthesignificanceofcivilaviationtothatindustry.Travel&TourismData1999and2010HighLightsGlobalDataU.S.DataTravel&TourismDataandSupportingReportsfortheNASAAeronauticsStudyPreparedbySAICCritique&TechnicalDiscussionofT&TData1993DataCriticismsRevisionsRecentDataSystemCautionsComparing1994&1999NoadequateDocumentationorDefinitionsfor1994DataTermsnotComparableEstimatingTechniquesDifferentWorldTravel&TourismCouncilFirstEstimateofT&TIndustryEconomicData--1993Forecastsfor1994and2001ImmediateObjectivesSupport“FreeTradeintheAir”EmphasisonAirtransportShowsignificanceoftheT&TIndustryT&TDATAHISTORYCriticismsofT&TDataIndustryGeneratedDataLackedDocumentation&MethodologyNotComparablewithExistingEconomicDatabasesViewedbyOthersasSelf-servingRecommendationsofProfessionalsRigorousMethodologyDefinitionsandDocumentationLinkstoExistingOfficialEconomicDataBasesCredibleDataCollectionEntitiesResultingDataSystemMostotherOECDCountriesNowProvideCompatibleDataUNDepartmentofEconomic&SocialAffairsCollectsDatafromMostCountriesUsesMethodology&DefinitionsCompatiblewithOECDCountriesDatafortheU.S.1995WhitehouseConferenceBEAtoDevelopDataSystemTravel&TourismSatelliteAccountCompleted1998MethodologyandDefinitionsRigorouslyDocumentedIntegratedintotheU.S.InputandOutputAccountsI-OFactorsamongIndustryGroupsDevelopedUnitedNationsDataCollection•UNDepartmentofEconomic&SocialAffairs(InformationOffice)andUNTourismOrganization•NowCollectingDatafromMostCountries•UsesMethodology&DefinitionsCompatiblewithOECDCountriesLimitationsofT&TSAU.S.DataBasedon1992BusinessCensusAssumption--1992relationships(Input-Output)holduntilnextCensusI-OFactorsrevisedafter1998BusinessCensus(RevisionsDueLate1999/Early2000)WorldTravel&TourismCouncil1999ForecastOfT&TEconomicImpactDerivedfrom1998DataProjectionfor2010isIncludedGlobalandRegionalForecastsfor1999andProjectionsfor2010GeneralAgreementonMethodology&TermsLimitationsonNewlyReleasedForecasts&ProjectionsAllOECDCountriesNowReportNoDatafromManySmallerCountriesRegionalSamplesUsedforSome(LatinAmerica,EasternEurope)E.g.,ArgentinaandBrazilUsedtoEstimateLatinAmericaAssumedGrowthRatesto2010Travel&TourismHighLightsfor1999Travel&TourismImpactDirectandIndirectupontheGlobalEconomy11%ofGDP200MillionJobs8%ofTotalEmployment5.5MillionNewJobsperyearuntil2010U.S.HighlightsDatausedinWTTCDataSystemImportanceofUSinT&TIndustryEmploymentCapitalInvestmentGovernmentSpendingFederalAgenciesState&LocalKeyPointsfromGlobalProjectionFor2010ForTravel&TourismRealGrowth3.3%peryearThrough2010EconomyGDPwillbe11%ofGlobalGDPEmploymentwillbe9%TaxRevenuesat11.7%ofTotalT&TForecastfor2010InvestmentGovernmentExpenditurestoSupportT&TIncreaseatahigherratethaninT&TGlobalCapitalInvestment$733Bin1999andprojectedtobe$1.5Trillionby2010.T&TCapitalInvestmentGrowsFasterthanGlobalInvestmentUnitedStatesDataforT&TUpto25%ofAllDirectT&TExpendituresforAirfaresLargestSingleItemT&TGDP$1,067Billionin1999Japannexthighestat$389B.T&TGDPProjectedat$1.8Trillionby2010U.S.Employment&GovernmentSpendingT&TEconomyaccountsfor17.5MillionU.S.jobsin1999(13.2%)20.2MillionU.S.JobsExpectedin2010(13.5%)Governmentsspent$52.2BillionforT&T1999By2010Projectedtoreach$85BillionAnalyticalTools:DirectEconomicFactorsEconomicFactorsforUSTransportationDirectImpactper$ofAirTransport$1.00PrimaryInd.(mfg)=.14OtherTransport=.15Services,Misc.=.26ValueAdded=.45PrimaryIndustriesincludeAgri.,mining,constr.,&mfg.;OtherTransportationincludespipelines&owntransport;Servicesincludefinance,insurance,communications,Utilities&Gov’t.Direct&IndirectEconomicFactorsFactorsforUSAirTransportationDirect&IndirectRequirements:Per$ofAirTransportationServicePrimaryInd.(mfg)=.35Transportation=1.17Services=.47Total=1.99TheDirectImpactis.99orapprox.$1to$1:IndirecttoDirectTravel&TourismFactorsDirectProducts&ServicesRequiredper$1expendedforTravel&TourismintheU.S.Airfares.25Lodging.16Meals,etc.14Shopping.12AllOther.34Total$1.00CautionaryNotesDefinitionsforT&TEconomicMeasuresarecumbersomeanddifficulttomaster,e.g.1999the“T&TIndustryGDP”is$1,328Billion,BUT…“T&TEconomyGDP”is$3,549,AND…“T&TDemand”is$4,475BillionTravel&TourismIndustryGDP(Supply)IncludesDirectValueAddedAssociatedwithT&TConsumptionConsumerexpenditures(durables,nondurables&services)TravelandTourismBusinessSales(private&public)TravelandTourismgovernmentexpendituresTravelandTourismForeignTrade(visitorexports)Travel&TourismEconomyGDPDirectandIndirectValueAddedincludingT&TConsumptionT&TCapitalInvestment(PublicandPrivate)GovernmentExpendituresT&TforeignTradeTravelandTourismDemandIncludesPersonalConsumption(Durables,Non-durables,Services)BusinessTravel(Corporate&Government)VisitorExportsGovernmentExpendituresCapitalInvestmentNon-visitorExports(WorldTourism)IndustryPerspectiveoftheT&TSatelliteAccountCapturesalleconomicactivityrelatedtopersonstravelingtoandstayinginplacesoutsidetheirusualenviro