清华能源讲座

Meetingtheenergyandclimatechallenge:ATaleofTwoCountries(1)Thereisgrowingcompetitionandanxietyoveraccesstoenergyresources.(2)Ourlong-termeconomicprosperityistiedtothesustainableuseofenergy.(3)Therearerisksofadverseclimatechangeforbothcountries.EnergyChallengeMillionbarrelsperday19601970198019902000201025151050ConsumptionProductionUSbecameanetoilimporterinthe1940s10196519701975198019851990199520002005201019508765432Chinabecameanetoilimporterinthe1990sBothcountriesarenowimportingroughlyhalfoftheiroil204TemperatureRecord1850–2006IPCC4thclimateassessment(2007)ThePolarIceCap1979–2005averageismeltingmuchfasterthanpredictedIPCCmodelpredictionsSource:Stroeveetal.2007andupdatedbyDirkNotzHamburgPast2000years:1870–1890:1990–2008:0.0-.02mm/year0.6mm/year3.0mm/year(includingrecentsatellitedata)GlobalSeaLevel:2007IPCCTechnicalSummaryglaciersinnorthwestChinahaveshrunkby21%,andarerecedingatarateof10-15metersperyear.China’sglaciersarerecedingrapidlyInthepast50yearstheBy2050China’swesternglaciersareprojectedtodecreaseby27%.MeltwaterfromglacierssuppliesthemajorityoffreshwaterinAsiaGangotriGlacier,HimalayasnearChinaChina’sNationalAssessmentReportonClimateChange(II):Climatechangeimpactsandadaptation.20071849193519712000CumulativeGlacierIceMeltIn45years,wehavelostover9,000cubickmofice.2007IPCCTechnicalSummaryAtmosphericmodel(red)withnaturalvariationsandhumangreenhousegasandobservations(black)Atmosphericmodel(blue)withonlynaturalvariationsandobservations(black)Thechangeiscausedbyemissionofgreenhousegases1750,thebeginningoftheindustrialrevolutionIceCoreDataofCO2,CH4,N2OandTemperature(D)over600,000years.550ppm20,000years12B.A.U.goesofftheslideCO2EmissionsfromEnergyConsumption(MillionMetricTonsofCarbonDioxide)1325,00020,00015,00010,00030,000200520001995199019851980U.S.andChinaCO2Emissions:42%ofWorldTotal35,00042%theworld5,0000UnitedStatesChinaRestof14ComparisonofU.S.andChinaEnergy‐RelatedEmissions–ThreePerspectivesSource:AsiaSociety,2008.CommonChallenge,CollaborativeResponse:ARoadmapforU.S.‐ChinaCooperationonEnergyandClimateChange.’senergy‐relatedCO2emissions4,0003,0002,0001,00006,0005,0007,00020074,0003,0002,0001,000‐6,0005,0007,0001980198319861989199219951998200120042007commercialresidentialtransportationindustry(PRC)(USA)EnergyUseinChinaandtheU.S.16Iftheworldfollowsa“Business-as-usual”path,whatdoclimatemodelspredictwillhappen?17Daysabove90degreesFChicago:~10daysto75-90daysgreaterthan90°FSt.Louis:~45daysto~120days(1/3oftheyear)18ProjectedIncreaseinHeat-RelatedDeathsinChicago10xincreaseinheat-relateddeathsCOMPUTATIONALRESEARCHDIVISIONExtremeheatwaveswillbecomecommoninChinaExtremeheatwavesthatcurrentlyhappenevery20yearswouldoccureveryotheryearinmuchofChinaNumberofyearsbetweenextremeheatwavesby2100underbusiness-as-usualscenario01234567891020Areasinredwouldbeunderwaterwitha1meterriseinsealevel,projectedforthiscenturyU.S.coastalareasatriskfromsea-levelriseAreasinbluebelow4feetChinaatRiskofSeaLevelRiseIPCC:“InChina,a30cmsea-levelrisewouldinundate81,348km2ofcoastallowland”Risingsealevelsincreaseriskofflooding,stormsurges,andcoastalerosionChangjiangDeltaOldHuangheDeltaPopulation(Million)PhilippinesBangladeshIndonesiaVietnamTaiwanThailaChinand30ChiMinhSource:WorkingGroupII,IPCC4thAssessmentReport;UNHumanDevelopmentReport07/08;“Heatinguptheplanet’,LowyInstitute;WorldBank”TheImpactofSeaLevelRiseonDevelopingCountries:AComparativeAnalysis”TokyoShanghaiHongKongManilaDhakaRangoonBangkokHoSingaporeJakarta0102060504070Withdensely-populatedcoastalcities,Chinaisparticularlyvulnerabletosealevelrise10090801m2m3m4m5mPopulationImpactedbySeaLevelRise(1m–5m)PredictedwaterstressareasaroundtheworldSources:“TheImpactsofClimateChangeonChineseAgriculture-PhaseII”;fundedbytheUKGovernment,inpartnershipwithChina'sMinistryofScienceandTechnology;October2008;andChina’sNationalAssessmentReportonClimateChangeBy2030,cropproductivityinChinacoulddecreaseby5–10%.By2050–2100,rice,maize,andwheatyieldscoulddeclineby37%Changesinarablelandin2050inA2emissionsscenarioThepermafrostisbeginningtothawZimovetal.,2006.Science.312:1612-1613Denialwillnotchangeourdestiny.ThemessageSciencehasunambiguouslyshownthatwearealteringthedestinyofourplanet.Theconsequencesofwhatwearedoingtodaywillnotbefullyrealizedforatleastahundredyears.Whatwillbeourlegacytoourchildrenandgrandchildren?Ourmessageisnotoneofdoomandgloom,butofoptimismandopportunity.ScienceandTechnologyhasgivenussolutionsinthepast.Withtherightgovernmentpolicies,itwillcometoouraidinthefuture.1960:Population=3B2005:Population=6.5BSource:FoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAO),UnitedNationsWorldProductionofGrain(1961–2004)TheinventionandindustrialproductionofammoniasynthesisbyHaberandBoschmadepossibleartificialfertilizers.ThePopulationBomb(1968)NormanBorlaugawardedNobelPrize29China’sEnergyIntensityC