生物质能源主导论_为编制国家_十二五_规划建言献策

20111(64)20111:20101212:石元春,1931年生,男,湖北武汉人,1956年毕业于北京农业大学土壤学(研究生)专业,教授,土壤学专家,中国科学院院士,中国工程院院士,国家科技奖励委员会委员为编制国家十二五!规划建言献策石元春(中国工程院,北京100088):叙述了发展可再生能源以生物质能源为主导的大趋势和必然性,指出,解决能源短缺和能源安全等问题,应将生物质能源提升到应有的战略地位根据中国生物质能源具有的突出资源优势,为编制国家十二五!规划,提出了加大发展固体生物质燃料的力度,加快燃料乙醇产能的步伐,把产业沼气替代天然气的议题提上议事日程,用20年时间建设本土的绿色三田!,制定优惠政策扶植生物质能源企业的建设以及十二五!生物质能源规划目标的建议和对策:生物质;能源;主导地位;发展战略;建言献策:F206:A:20950802(2011)01000107DiscussesofTakingBioenergyastheDominantEnergyadviceandsuggestionsforthepreparationofthenationalTwelfthFiveYear!PlanSHIYuanchun(ChineseAcademyofEngineering,Beijing100088,China)Abstract:Todevelopbioenergyastheleadingfactoroftherenewableenergydevelopmentisinevitable.Weshouldmakebiomassenergyasstrategicprioritytosolvetheproblemsofenergyshortageandenergysafety,strengthenthedevelopmentofbiomassenergy,andstepupthepaceoffuelethanolproductioncapacity.Weshouldalsoputontheagendathereplacementofnaturalgaswithmarshgas,constructthegreenlocalthreefield!,andworkoutfavorablepolicytofosterthedevelopmentbiomassenergyenterprisestoaccomplishthegoalsofdevelopingbiomassenergyintheprogrammingofthenextfiveyears.Keywords:biomass;energy;dominantposition;developmentstrategy;advicesandsuggestions0,,,,2005,52,1445,,,5214452010,,:a)!2000120∀108,t2007253∀108t7,,;b)2009536%,30%,,2020150%,,,75%202040∀108t,,75%2009,2020150%!,,150%,,50%20%,CO2,,,,,!,!,,,,,#1#2011120111,,10,,48,,,!!!1,,,,2070,,,91999,∃%,1203030%,5%20%25%2005,,20031∀108t,3%,,!2090,,2005200720082009∃%∃%∃%∃%,(EIA)∃2010%,20082035,17%,70%45%;410%,,493%,370%,42%,,,2007,,202020%,10%,197077%200832%;1230∀108kW#h,(100∀108kW#h)(270∀108kW#h)123451030∀108kW#h,168%,716%2006,25%,2020!,GDP8%,,FFVs12008!,DilmaRossef,,50%(200956%,),3%,2003(FFVs),700∀104(201021000∀104,),90%FFVs!12∀1042004/!,201110%,,2002∃%,!!,!,2,,;;,,,,!,,,,,1,,,,,#2#20111:20111,,,,,,,;;,3,!,,!,!8∀10801hm2,,,,!,!,!,!,!!8∀108,!,!!!!,,,!,,!!!,,!4∀108t/a(,1∀108t/a),8,800∀108/a~1000∀108/a,1∀108t/a,1000∀108/a~1500∀108/a,900∀108m3/a(),1000∀108/a,,,,!Vilsack,,,,,,,21,,!,,,,!!!,!!!,!!!,!4,402∀108kW,175∀1012kW#h,32%;(10m)297∀1012kW,200∀104km2,20km180∀108kW,37∀104km2(1/40)1171∀108t,,482%,518%,2148∀108t/a,,545%,185%,87%155%,28%,2,35,,,#3#2011120111,1000km~2000km,,,1171∀108t,459∀108t(39%);559∀108t(48%);153∀108t(13%),,,,,5,37∀108t/a,,40%~60%,,,,,1,,,,4∀108t1∀108t,21∀108hm2,51,16∀108t/a,113∀108t/a,90%,,,,,,,,1,/,1,,,,∃%,20203000∀104,t,,!1!12008,170,460∀104kW,50,110∀104kW∃%,20203000∀104kW,!1000∀104kW,1/2,,,,,,,,6,,,,,,202020%;10%;56%,2%20052009,2000∀104t/a700∀104t/a250∀104t/a,60∀104t/a,!,2005100∀104,t!,,,,200∀104t10%!4,722∀1041364∀104,168∀108t/a219∀104t/a,32∀104t/a,,,,,100∀104t/a,,2011,2010100∀104t/a,20201000∀104t/a,,,!,!#4#20111:2011120105,,15!,,,,,20201000∀104t/a,,,,!,!12,15?300∀104t/a500∀104t/a?!?,15,,,720,,,!30,600∀1043000∀104,120∀108m3/a,;(CSTR);;4780(2009),1600MW;15∀104(2007),,2040!,2009140∀108m350%,30%,LNG,830∀108m3/a,700∀108m3/a,,,,,,,,,/,,,,,,CBG,,,,,;;!,,CBG,CBG820!,,,:a),,3∀108t/a;b),,12∀108t/a;c),,3∀108t/a;d),,3000∀104t/a,1000∀104hm21∀108t,,830∀108m3700∀108m3,:a),COD;b);c)!,,,,,,,,,#5#2011120111!,!,!!,,,!,,,,,,,?,,1∀1012/a!,,,,,,1,!13;1,3~4,1521,11∀104,44∀10491∀104145∀104220∀104,!,!9!!,,,2004,,,,20098,20,10,420MW,400∀104t/a~450∀104t/a,8∀108~9∀108,200930∀108kW#h,514,15∀104t,27∀108kW#hCO2330∀104,t75∀10845∀104300∀104kW100,1500∀104tCO23000∀104,t60∀10840∀1041,2005,!()12∀104hm2,18∀108kW#h/aCO220∀104,t7000∀1047000,2010CO2,!!201121000,30∀104t/a,1,,20088∀104m2,,201080∀104m2,20101∀108,212t19∀104m3,16MWCO28∀104t/a,2009;300t27∀104m3,3MWCO29∀104t/a,2011COD,2∀104m3/d,;140∀104m3/dCBG,!4,,,2006,1,,!,#6#20111:20111!,,10,,,!,!,!,,,,,,1,,,,,,,100∀104t,,,,,,,,60%~70%,,,,!!,!,,,,,11!!∃%(∃%),∃%2020,299∀104,t100∀104,t21∀104,t37∀104t12∀104t,43%,33%,7%,13%4%,,!∃%,2010,!202040%60%2015A,B,11,AB,!,,!1生物质能源发展规划2010年2020年2015年指标建议规划实况估计规划A方案B方案生物质发电∀104kW550基本完成300012001800成型燃料∀104t10050500020003000沼气∀108m3100120440176264新增非粮乙醇∀104t200201000400600生物柴油∀104t20620080120∃%,a),,,,!()!;b),,,!,,;c)!![2006]2842!,,;d),,(:)#7#